The price of gas, at highs since the start of the conflict in the Middle East
The Iberian geographic peculiarity, however, leaves the Catalans in a different scenario than the rest of Europeans
BarcelonaThe return of hostilities in the Middle East has put an end to the calm in the region. And also that of the markets, especially energy. Since the war in Iran began, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has jeopardized European supplies, and this has sent fuel prices soaring. And now the value of oil and natural gas is rising again after a few calmer weeks.
While the price of crude has been the one most in the spotlight, currently that of gas is the one most affected: the European benchmark price, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) – which is traded on the Dutch market – has reached highs in recent days since the start of the war in Iran.
As the president of Pimec's energy commission, José Enrique Vázquez, explains, the impact of this situation, however, is different in the Iberian Peninsula than in the rest of Europe. "It has nothing to do with it: both in Spain and Portugal we have guaranteed supply, while other countries like Germany, which depended heavily on Russian gas, are indeed suffering from running out of it," explains the expert in conversation with ARA.
It is worth remembering that the characteristic geographical situation of the Iberian Peninsula has created gas independence in relation to the rest of Europe, which also brought strong reassurance during the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Specifically, most of the gas that reaches our country comes from channels independent of Russia and Hormuz: the fuel arrives mainly from Algeria via pipelines or from the United States by ship. Between these two suppliers, approximately one third of the gas consumed is covered, while the rest is distributed among various exporting countries.
When assessing the price of natural gas, Vázquez recalls that the TTF is a reference price, but not the real one. To understand this, one must imagine the Dutch market as a commercial platform where producers and traders sell and buy gas contracts. However, as the expert explains, "the real price of gas depends on who you buy it from." Furthermore, the president of Pimec's energy commission points out that Spain has contracts "at a very good price" with Algeria, which means that, no matter how high the TTF indicates the price, the gas that reaches the State could arrive for less.
The impact on electricity
How does the new increase in natural gas translate into consumers' pockets? Although in summer families will notice the increase less, the sharp rise will be reflected in, among other things, the electricity bill. In fact, according to the Organization of Consumers and Users (OCU), the electricity bill for households covered by the Voluntary Price for Small Consumers (PVPC) has increased by 17% during the month of July. Behind this rise is the strong rebound in the wholesale electricity market, where the average price has climbed to 104.75 euros/MWh, 51% more than the previous month and the highest level since February 2025. But the increase has been coming for a long time: since March 2026, coinciding with the war in Iran, wholesale prices have already accumulated a 151% increase.
Thus, according to the entity's calculations, for an average family, with a contracted power of 4.6 kilowatts (kW) and a monthly consumption of 292 kilowatt hours (kWh), the bill will reach 77.84 euros compared to the 66.63 euros registered in June. The price of gas and electricity are linked by combined cycle power plants, which have been the ones that determined the price for several hours in July. It should be noted that other factors related to summer and high temperatures have also influenced the price increase.
In case this situation continues over time, José Enrique Vázquez believes that it would be worth considering re-applying the Iberian exception, a temporary energy mechanism authorized by the European Commission that allowed Spain and Portugal to limit the price of gas intended for electricity generation during the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "We must take advantage of this capacity we have to receive gas from many places at once," assures the Pimec expert. However, Vázquez points out that it will be complicated, and recalls that, at the time, it took Europe a long time to grant it.