The OECD improves its growth forecasts for the Spanish economy
Raises growth in the State to 2.6%, but warns of the rise in prices with inflation at 3.7%
BarcelonaThe Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has once again revised Spain's growth forecast upwards to 2.6%, four tenths of a percentage point higher than the estimates made in June. Furthermore, the organization has also revised Spain's 2027 forecasts upwards by one tenth of a percentage point, due to an improvement in domestic demand of one tenth. Thus, the State's GDP growth for 2027 is placed at 1.8%.
According to the data published this Wednesday by the OECD, Spain is once again positioned as the leading economy in the eurozone where GDP will increase the most. Nevertheless, the OECD is increasing the inflation estimate for this year to 3.7%, 0.4 percentage points higher than in the June forecasts. It also foresees a price increase in 2027, up to 3.4%, 0.5 percentage points higher than in the last study. The report warns of "considerable uncertainty" due to the war in the Middle East.
The improvement in Spain's economic forecast is due to "strong domestic demand" during the second quarter, but it is countered by a "moderation" of global growth. Compared to the OECD's last report in June, global activity will improve by one tenth of a percentage point, to 2.9%, during 2026, but will worsen slightly towards 2027, from 3.1% to 3%.
According to the organization's figures, the eurozone's GDP will increase by 1% in 2026, 0.2 percentage points higher than the June estimates. However, it highlights that growth in 2027, also at 1%, will be 0.2 percentage points lower than the calculations shared before the summer. Despite everything, it forecasts that domestic demand will strengthen when energy prices "normalize" and "new defense initiatives" are incorporated.
From the Paris-based organization, they estimate that eurozone inflation will be 3% in 2026, two tenths of a percentage point higher than the figures published in June, and 2.9% in 2027, 0.5 percentage points higher.
Impact of the war and AI
In the study, the OECD has highlighted that global economies have remained "strong" despite the "adverse effects" derived from the conflict in Iran thanks to oil reserves, supply from other economies outside the Persian Gulf, and the aid provided by governments to "mitigate" economic impacts.
Furthermore, it has highlighted that "strong and continued" activity related to the development of artificial intelligence has helped to "boost" investment, production, and international trade.
However, the organization has warned that economies depend on the duration of the conflict in Iran and points out that the increase in refinery margins due to bottlenecks is beginning to translate into consumer end prices and business costs. In fact, it has warned that "inflationary pressure" and "weaker real income growth," as well as higher interest rates, will "moderate" the production boost in the short term in many economies.
The OECD has assured that "further economic policy adjustments will be needed if growing signs of pressure are observed." The document highlights that nearly a third of central banks have increased the price of money since March, although "in many cases, modestly." Nevertheless, taking into account the energy crisis and inflation "above" the target, the OECD has called for "ensuring" that underlying inflationary pressures remain "contained" for longer.