The OECD revises its growth forecast for Spain despite the Ormuz crisis

MadridThe Spanish economy will maintain a "robust" growth rate despite the conflict in the Middle East and international uncertainty, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, the institution that groups the world's advanced economies). The economic body has revised its growth forecast for Spain in 2026 upwards by one tenth, to 2.2%, in line with the estimate maintained by the Spanish government.

It is, in fact, the only economy that improves compared to the latest forecasts, although it grows very slightly. In any case, it represents growth well above what the OECD forecasts for other economies such as Germany (0.7%), France (0.7%) and Italy (0.5%) this 2026. As for the rebound in the Spanish gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) in 2027, it leaves it unchanged and places it at 1.7%.

In this way, the State would save its skin despite the economic impact of the war, mainly due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large part of the world trade of raw materials such as oil and natural gas passes. One of the reasons behind this feeling of resilience of the Spanish economy is that it has less exposure to this trade route, especially concerning fossil fuels.

In fact, in the case of natural gas, there are no planned imports for 2026 that pass through Hormuz. The OECD itself states in its forecasts published this Wednesday that the exposure of the Spanish economy to the conflict in the Middle East is "limited".

On the other hand, there are other economies that would not be so lucky, especially if the conflict drags on well into 2027. The OECD warns that in the event of a prolonged war – this is the most adverse scenario – global growth will slow down significantly, to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Some economies, particularly emerging ones, could enter or come close to recession, and therefore, the consequences for them would be more severe. The reasons would be that they are countries with few energy reserves, limited fiscal capacity and fragile currencies, low household savings and less social protection.

More inflation

In parallel, however, the OECD has increased its inflation expectation, which in the Spanish case will reach 3.3% this year, according to the international body's estimates. It is, in fact, the negative note of this Wednesday's forecasts. While the strength of domestic demand, especially private household consumption, and the dynamism of the labor market will continue to be Spain's economic engine, the increase in energy prices will be a burden. According to the OECD's analysis, the measures approved by the Spanish government, especially regarding energy taxation, would have helped to cushion the blow.