The new world order reaffirms the risks that companies face.

BarcelonaIt seems that not a day goes by without a new risk emerging. This feeling has been weighing heavily on citizens for years, especially in recent days, and the economy is also suffering. This is the conclusion reached by the Institut Cerdà in its annual risk assessment for Spanish companies, which found that the vast majority of risk factors have increased in the last year, with very few decreasing. The worst impact has been the erosion of confidence in institutions, particularly international ones, following Donald Trump's return to the US presidency.

The clearest example is the trade war launched by the Republican president, which has turned the world order on its head. "It doesn't seem to be about making the United States bigger, but rather about making everyone else bigger. Global trade has become just another weapon. Furthermore, one of Trump's stated objectives is to weaken Europe," argued Pere Torres, technical advisor at the Cerdà Institute, at the report's presentation on Monday. Although Spain is not one of the countries most affected by the tariffs, due to the low exposure of its exports to the US, this new scenario has triggered increased uncertainty, a clear brake on investment and consumption, as well as on climate change, which is becoming increasingly unpredictable. But it's not all about major macroeconomic issues, often perceived as overly complicated and irrelevant by almost everyone. Obviously, inflation and speculation in the housing market are some of the main problems facing families across the country, who suffer the constant fear of another rent increase that will force them out of a market with unaffordable prices. They also affect the difficulties young people face in becoming independent, the inability to save, and job insecurity.

"Spain's positive economic data isn't reaching everyone. Many experts predict a K-shaped economy, with one segment of society prospering and another not, increasingly separated," notes Torres, who previously served as Director General of the Metropolitan Transport Authority (ATM). Avoiding this is a challenge that requires moving towards "a higher value-added economy with salaries that allow people to live comfortably," as the private foundation's report argues.

However, it warns that current characteristics of the labor market, such as the difficulty in filling certain vacancies, high turnover, the prevalence of part-time contracts among female workers, and the low incidence of vocational training, hinder progress towards better productivity and quality jobs.

If this isn't done, the danger is not only a socially fractured society but also a politically divided one. This scenario is exacerbated by disinformation. "These are intentional actions to destabilize institutions, provoke electoral shifts, and degrade reputations," warns the Institut Cerdà, which places particular emphasis on the danger of social media due to its "absolute disregard" for the truth. "The risks are expanding and intensifying," concluded Torres, who focused on this widespread perception of a world that is "increasingly turbulent and somewhat more dangerous."