The Middle East conflict affects more than a million passengers at El Prat

BarcelonaThe Middle East conflict has blown up the layovers that many travelers make on their way to Asian destinations such as Vietnam, South Korea, China, Thailand, or India. Airlines like Emirates Airlines, Qatar Airways, or Etihad Airways had become an essential pillar in the connection between Europe and Asia, with a very strong offering and convenient connections in their hubs in Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi. The transit potentially affected by this new crisis amounts to 1.1 million annual passengers passing through Barcelona airport, according to a report prepared by the consultancy GPA to which ARA has had access.

Looking at trips with origin and destination in Barcelona, Europe is the main protagonist, accounting for more than 80% of passengers. Long-haul flights have a very small weight in El Prat, where low-cost airlines such as Vueling, Ryanair, Wizz Air, or EasyJet move the vast majority of passengers. Within intercontinental markets, the Asia-Pacific region is the second most popular destination, with 4.2% of demand, just behind North America and the Caribbean (6.5%). It is in transit to Asia or the Pacific that the conflict in the Middle East has the greatest impact, considering that nearly half of the connections were made at Persian Gulf airports. Before the war, Qatar, Emirates, or Etihad offered between two and three daily flights from the Catalan capital, frequencies that have been drastically reduced while awaiting a halt to the bombings.

In absolute terms, this is equivalent to almost 901,000 passengers who passed through one of these three airports in 2025 to connect Barcelona with their final destination in Asia or the Pacific, where Australia also has great importance. This is the most relevant flow that would be affected by the current geopolitical crisis. Other intermediate airports that may gain importance due to this war are Beijing, Istanbul, Frankfurt, Shanghai, or Shenzhen, although they are very far from the Gulf airports and attract connecting passengers at rates below 10%, compared to 21% in Doha, 14% in Dubai, or 13% in Abu Dhabi.

Advantage for Chinese airlines

Chinese airlines are the ones that can benefit most from this situation, considering that for them the airspace over Russia is not closed, as it is for European airlines as a result of the war in Ukraine. "They can make shorter and more efficient routes because they use less fuel; therefore, they can also offer cheaper tickets," says Pere Suau-Sánchez, professor of air transport management at UOC. In this regard, Cathay Pacific, based in Hong Kong, has cancelled its flights to Dubai and Riyadh until the end of May and has reinforced connections at airports such as London, Paris, and Zurich. Likewise, Singapore Airlines has increased its capacity on alternative routes to Dubai, with an increase in direct flights to London.

For UB professor Xavier Fageda, an expert in air transport, the new international scenario opens a window of opportunity for European airlines such as Lufthansa or Air France, which have seen Qatar, Etihad, or Emirates fall out of play. "They are very strong rivals that had gained a lot of ground in recent years and, moreover, did not compete on equal terms," Fageda remarks. In fact, Lufthansa's CEO, Carsten Spohr, has already pointed out that the conflict in Iran will weaken the dominant position of Emirates and Qatar on routes to Asia. But it must be remembered, as Suau-Sánchez indicates, that European airlines are now forced to fly over Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, the only viable corridors, and that there will be more and more congestion if the conflict is not ended.

Although it does not attract as many travelers as Asian destinations, the Middle East also receives passengers from El Prat. In the year 2025, more than 705,000 people traveled from Barcelona to a country in this region, 1.4% of the total demand. Of these, those who went to the most impacted airports –United Arab Emirates and Qatar– were 170,000. To this figure, we must add the 82,000 annual passengers who pass through Doha, Dubai, or Abu Dhabi to head to destinations such as Israel, Jordan, or Iran. All in all, more than 250,000 annual travelers are potentially affected in this region. Here, the airports that could benefit from the crisis are those in Istanbul, where more than 30% of travelers were already making a stopover last year.

More expensive tickets and less supply

Those who will surely lose out will be the users, with fewer options available, and more expensive ones. Beyond having to take longer routes, which consume more fuel, airlines will have to come to terms with how their prices have skyrocketed to unimaginable levels. Fuel represents 30% of their costs, according to Fageda, and it will end up being passed on to ticket prices.

This setback, however, will not be managed in the same way by European and American airlines. The former have insurance policies that protect them from fluctuations in fuel prices, especially from shocks that are not prolonged. In the case of Vueling, the main airline at Barcelona airport, its fuel coverage is between 75% and 80% for this year, while for EasyJet, the fourth in El Prat, it is 70% for this summer. "It will depend a lot on the extent and duration of the conflict," pointed out in an interview with l'ARA, Vueling's president, Carolina Martinoli.

This protection is not shared by American companies, which did away with these insurances a few years ago. Therefore, some are beginning to cut seats to reduce costs, as United Airlines has just announced, which has calculated that the increase in fuel prices will mean an additional cost of 9.5 billion euros.