The IMF raises Spain's 2026 growth forecast to 2.5%

BarcelonaThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) raises the growth forecast for the Spanish economy to 2.5% for this 2026 –four tenths of a percent higher compared to July– and maintains the outlook for the global economy with an increase of 3.1% (an extra tenth). Regarding the eurozone, the increase is a moderate 1.1%, although it is two tenths higher than in the IMF's projections in the seventh month of the year.

The fund acknowledges an energy market disruption "more persistent than expected" due to the Middle East conflict, but attributes the good figures and the resilience of the global economy to the change in energy supply routes, the increase in energy production in other countries, and the boom in AI investment.

"Without these adjustments, the oil disruption alone would have significantly reduced global growth in 2026," states the IMF, which has also applauded that labor markets have remained "unexpectedly strong" and financial systems have endured "the sharpest shocks and monetary tightening in nearly half a century."

Looking ahead to 2027, the IMF maintains its growth forecasts for the Spanish economy (1.8%), global economy (3.4%), and the eurozone (1.2%) unchanged. In parallel, it projects that global inflation will rise to 4.7% this 2026, reflecting higher raw material prices, and that it will fall back to 4.1% next year. Core inflation is projected at 3.9% and 3.7% for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Inflation and public debt

Despite this favorable horizon, the fund led by Kristalina Georgieva warns that the decrease in energy and raw material stocks "could test the resilience of the global economy." "Low-income countries and households are still especially vulnerable to higher food prices caused by transport disruptions, rising fertilizer costs, export restrictions, and extreme weather events," the IMF listed. "Technological investment, despite being a great boost against the energy shock, is concentrating risks, making global expansion heavily dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies," the fund stressed.

On the other hand, the IMF also keeps an eye on high public debt in many economies as one of the factors to take into account in the coming months. "This causes an increase in the term premium and inflation expectations," stated the international monetary organization, which warns that—in this scenario—global growth in 2027 would be "materially lower" than in the baseline projections. "To support medium-term growth, countries should safeguard financial stability, support private sector dynamism, and strengthen fiscal resilience," the IMF prescribed. "International cooperation is indispensable. Many of the shocks weighing on the global economy cross borders, and so must the response," the fund concluded.