The EU and the US are on the verge of closing a deal: 15% tariffs on European products.

BrusselsThe European Union and the United States are on the verge of reaching an agreement and avoid a trade war. The European Commission presented this Wednesday to the member states of the European bloc a principle in line with the White House, according to the Financial Times and diplomatic sources confirm the ARA. The fine print of the agreement has not yet been finalized, but it would be a pact similar to the one the United States and Japan signed this Tuesday. That is, a 15% tariff would be applied to European products.

This general tax, however, would represent a consolidation of what the United States is already applying to EU companies. At this point, Washington already applies a general 10% tariff to all European imports, a rate that was added to the 4.8% that the US administration previously applied. Therefore, in practice, US tariffs would only increase by two-tenths of a percentage point. However, the same diplomatic sources warn that Donald Trump's approval is missing and recall that it would not be the first time that the President of the United States has reversed course at the last minute.

Less than two weeks ago, Brussels and the member states were claiming they were already in the middle of a trade agreement with the White House. Finally, the New York magnate sent a new letter to the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, threatening to impose new 30% tariffs. For this reason, diplomatic sources warn that, until the agreement is firmly in place and secured, they do not want to consider the deal a done deal, especially with Trump and given the precedents.

In any case, it remains to be seen what the fine print of the agreement looks like and whether, as some member states have requested, exceptions will be made for specific sectors, such as the automotive and chemical industries. "This remains to be resolved," diplomatic sources point out.

The EU is preparing for the worst-case scenario.

The European Commission remains optimistic and confident of reaching an agreement. However, it also wants to be prepared for the worst-case scenario and intends to have countermeasures in place in case Trump ends up sparking a new trade war. "Although our priority is the negotiations, we are preparing for all outcomes in parallel," says EU Trade spokesperson Olof Gill.

Brussels is currently keeping its plans in the drawer. two tariff lists which it can apply at any time against Washington, but this Wednesday it announced that it will propose to the member states that they unify them. The European Commission's goal is for its potential "countermeasures" to be "clearer, simpler, and more forceful," according to the Trade spokesperson. In any case, European countries will make a decision on Brussels' approach this Thursday, and the new customs duties against US products would go into effect on August 7, although the deadline for concluding an agreement agreed upon by the EU and the US is August 1.

Brussels estimates that the first list would affect transactions between the two powers worth €21 billion, and the second list of products would affect €72 billion. With this law, the European Commission would target symbolic elements of the US. It includes some agricultural products, personal hygiene products, clothing, and, among others, Boeing airplanes. Beyond the lists, the European Commission also has in the pipeline what it calls "trade-offs." It is known as the anti-coercion instrumentThis is a measure through which the EU, urgently and quickly, can increase customs duties, restrict imports or exports, exclude certain countries from participating in public tenders, and, among other actions, suspend international intellectual property obligations, which would particularly affect large US technology companies.

According to diplomatic sources, the general opinion on the implementation of this instrument "has changed," and it now appears that member states are "willing" to implement it if Trump fails to sign an agreement before the established deadline. The only country that has reportedly expressed support for implementing it "immediately" is France, which is one of the states that has most strongly opposed the White House in the trade war.