The Bank of Spain figures 900,000 flats in the hands of non-resident foreigners and for tourist use
The organism maintains that the Spanish economy will grow by 2.3% this 2026, but revises upwards the inflation rate, to 3.2%
MadridThe Spanish economy is holding its ground despite the war in the Middle East, or at least that's what the Bank of Spain projects. The supervisory body estimates that it will grow by 2.3% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, as published this Thursday, thus maintaining the growth forecast from last March unchanged. At that time, however, only a few weeks had passed since the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran had passed since the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran. However, despite seeming to save face in a context of strong global uncertainty, there are some "structural problems" that could shake economic activity in the State, among which, once again, access to housing stands out: "It can lead to significant macroeconomic and social effects," according to the Annual Report of 2025Annual Report of 2025 published this Thursday by the supervisory body.
the spanish government and some autonomous communities have been working for some time on formulas to alleviate this crisisWhile demand has continued to increase since 2021, supply has shown "restrictions." This has led to a housing deficit of 3.9% between 2021 and 2025 in Spain, well above that of France (0.02%) and Italy (1.5%), but below that of Portugal (7%). In absolute terms, the entity chaired by José Luis Escrivá has estimated that 750,000 homes would need to be built to cover current demand. The trend, therefore, is not improving but worsening – in 2024, this deficit was estimated at 600,000 homes. "It will increase," warned the Director General of Economics of the Bank of Spain, David López Salido. It also doesn't help that a number of properties – specifically 900,000 homes (representing 3.3% of the housing stock) – that could be used for residential purposes are either in the hands of non-resident foreigners or are used for tourist rentals.
The problem of housing access has become one of the main social concerns –the Spanish government and some autonomous communities have long been working on formulas to alleviate this crisis–. By population, the difficulties in accessing a property are mainly suffered by young and foreign people living in large cities, where the impact is greatest. In fact, the Bank of Spain points out that 50% of the accumulated residential deficit in the State is concentrated in six provinces: Madrid, Barcelona, Alicante, Valencia, Murcia, and Malaga, areas that have precisely registered an increase in tourist rentals.
The Bank of Spain links "restrictions" on supply to urban planning management and land regulations; to the productivity of the construction sector, which has few large companies and many small ones, and to the lack of labor. Also to the small public housing stock. The supervisory body also recommends some measures: from industrialized housing construction to the increase of public housing and the limitation of properties to residential use.
Effort to buy and rent an apartment
The price increase coincides with areas where there is this tension between supply and demand. For example, the real price of housing between the period 2014-2025 has grown in Barcelona (2.8%), Madrid (4.8%), and Malaga (5.2%, due to the impact of tourist rentals), but in other locations it has decreased.
", highlighted López, who acknowledged that it "could affect" competitiveness.
Projections for 2026
, but the Ministry of Economy has already confirmed that it will approve a new one with more measures.
The negative note comes from the prices, as the war in the Middle East has pushed them up due to tensions in the energy market. The Bank of Spain had already warned that the conflict was once again placing the inflation rate in the spotlight. It now places the inflation rate in the euro area at an average of 3% in 2026, while in the Spanish case it would stand at 3.6%. Furthermore, core inflation – the guide used by the European Central Bank (ECB) to decide whether to raise interest rates – is also increasing. In fact, in June the ECB already increased the cost of money by 25 basis points. "It worries us", highlighted López, who acknowledged that it "could affect" competitiveness.
Faced with the economic shock of the war, the Spanish government approved a package of measures aimed precisely at alleviating the rise in prices. The royal decree expires this June 30, but the Ministry of Economy has already confirmed that it will approve a new one with more measures.