The approach of African swine fever could jeopardize 3 billion euros in Catalonia

LleidaAfrican swine fever is approaching. This disease, endemic to the African continent, was declared in Georgia in 2014 and has since spread throughout Asia and Eastern Europe, reaching Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and, just a few months ago, northern Italy. All predictions indicate that sooner or later it will also reach Catalonia via the Pyrenees. "I've always been optimistic, but now I'm not so sure it won't arrive," admits biologist Fernando Rodríguez, one of the most renowned researchers in animal health at IRTA (Institute of Agrifood Research and Technology). So, it seems to be just a matter of time. "The whole operation is collapsing," adds Rodríguez, referring to the great importance of the pork sector to the Spanish and, above all, Catalan economy. A single case of swine fever in our country, even in a wild boar, would force the closure of borders to all exports. We are talking about a sector that sends almost half of its production to international markets, with a turnover of €2.898 billion in 2021 according to Prodeca (the Catalan government's public company). In fact, this amount represents more than 60% of all meat exports and a quarter of all Catalan agri-food production, making the pork sector... one of the driving forces of the country's economyObviously, with the border closures, all that money will be in serious danger.

The first destination market It is China, although it has fallen by 26% in the last yearBasically due to the Asian giant's fears of the plague. But many other countries, such as the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, have substantially increased their purchases of Catalan pork.

"Negotiations should begin immediately to avoid a potential market closure," demands Ricard Parés, director of PorCat, the main employers' association for the pork sector in Catalonia (representing half of the producers). Parés points out that "like it or not," the negotiations must originate in Madrid, from where bilateral agreements must be signed with the purchasing countries to regionalize the crisis; that is, to maintain exports from an infected country from unaffected areas. In fact, this is what French President Emmanuel Macron recently achieved after high-level negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the terms of which are unknown.

Without vaccines

African swine fever, which does not affect humans, is highly virulent. It is not spread through the air, but by close contact (such as ingestion), yet even a very small viral load can easily spread within an animal's body. Once the virus enters the bloodstream, it is unstoppable. Death occurs in less than ten days.

So far, no positive cases of swine fever have been detected in Catalonia. Due to its border location, the Catalan government has recently intensified controls. In just over a year, it has carried out more than 30,000 blood tests and 30,000 PCR tests on domestic pigs, as well as dozens of analyses on wild boar. So far, all results have been negative. Many believe it is a miracle. Wild boars are precisely the main threat to livestock farmers.With a population that is out of control throughout Europe and their habitual consumption of urban waste, which may be contaminated, the virus is spreading rapidly. The Catalan government's wildlife surveillance plan includes the annual analysis of ten wild boar samples per district. The main problem is that there is no treatment for the plague, much less an approved vaccine. And this is the main criticism of researcher Fernando Rodríguez. "We were fortunate enough to eradicate the disease from our country forty years ago, but since then nothing has been invested in research," he laments. Like other international laboratories, his research team at IRTA managed a few years ago to develop a prototype vaccine against the plague, which has now been transferred to a Bulgarian-owned multinational pharmaceutical company to carry out field trials. But the forecast is that it will still take several years for it to be registered and approved. "And when this happens, it obviously won't be administered here, but in the countries with the greatest pressure from the disease," the scientist predicts. The only thing farmers can do is invest in farm biosecurity. On that, everyone agrees. High, efficient fences to keep wild boars out and rigorous staff screening to prevent the virus from entering. "We must work with the assumption that sooner or later the plague will reach us," the unions predict.