Spain foresees that tourism will resist despite the war in Iran, and anticipates an Easter week with record spending

MadridThe Spanish government anticipates "resilience" in tourist activity in the face of the conflict in the Middle East. And it not only clings to the estimates for this Easter week, which are "fantastic" in the words of the Minister of Industry and Tourism, Jordi Hereu, but also to an "ability to adapt and resist" of a sector that in recent years has overcome crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic. "The situation is completely different [to that of the coronavirus]. It cannot be compared," Hereu said at a press conference this Tuesday, after the cabinet meeting. The minister, who appeared precisely to explain the current pulse of tourism and the forecasts for this Easter week, acknowledged that there is concern about the impact of the conflict, but linked it to "secondary effects" that will depend on how long the war drags on. "We are analyzing with the sector [the current situation] and what might happen if the conflict lasts not weeks, but months," he said. For example, if this scenario leads to an even more severe price crisis.

Nevertheless, Hereu has detailed some of the effects of the war on tourism that the ministry is already considering. He said that there could be a shift in tourist demand that until now was directed towards Eastern Mediterranean countries (for example, Turkey and Egypt) towards the Western Mediterranean (Spain, Greece, or Italy). Also a growth in last-minute bookings, as well as a "reconfiguration" of air transport. This latter point could put pressure on European airports because it means that some countries, such as China, are looking to increase direct connections to avoid transiting through some of the major airports in Middle Eastern countries.

Record for Easter Week

Despite international instability, the Spanish government expects that this Easter a new record can be reached in terms of spending by international tourists visiting the State. The trend in recent years has been for average growth in this spending to be much higher than the growth in the arrival of foreign visitors. This, however, has occurred in a context where prices have also become more expensive, especially since 2021, when the war in Ukraine also led to an unprecedented energy crisis.

Between March and April, the period that includes Easter, the Ministry of Tourism forecasts that the money left by these tourists in the State will grow by 3% compared to 2025 and exceed 20,000 million euros. In contrast, during these two months, the arrival of international visitors would grow by only a timid 0.2% (the forecast is that it will remain between 14,000 and 16,000 foreign tourists).

Finally, Hereu has highlighted that in recent years there has been a growth in the diversification of tourism in the State, which is also translated into a decentralization of activity (no longer only sun and beach are a pole of attraction for foreign visitors) and in a de-seasonality, that is, the difference between high and low season is not so pronounced.