Is the Ibex-35 immune to war?

MadridAt the end of April, the runway of results obtained by companies in the first quarter of the year begins, that is, between January and March. This also includes the so-called crown jewels; those companies that are part of the Ibex-35. Again, this 2026's presentations have been marked by the international context: "This is already the sixth or seventh [energy] crisis I have experienced," stated Iberdrola's president, Ignacio Sánchez Galán, to analysts this week, explaining how they achieved a profit of 1,865 million euros in the first three months of the year (11% more). Two companies in the sector have also fared well: Naturgy and Repsol –Endesa presents results in May–. The first has earned 530 million euros up to March and the second 929 million. In the case of the oil company, this represents 154% more.

In a quarter marked by the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28, which has triggered a war in the Middle East with more than palpable economic consequences, starting with the increase in energy prices, but also due to the fear of shortages of some raw materials due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the figures announced by companies lead one to wonder if the Ibex-35 is immune to the geopolitical chessboard. Of the sixteen companies in the Spanish selective index that presented results on April 30, only three recorded lower earnings compared to the first quarter of 2025 – there is also the exception of Puig, which only provides sales details and which so far are maintained, although it has already warned of an impact on the luxury business in the Middle East.

In general, Ibex executives have expressed confidence that peace negotiations will reach a successful conclusion and the war will neither be prolonged nor become entrenched. For now, there is agreement that the impact has been limited – the Spanish economy is not so exposed to the Middle Eastern energy market and for now it is holding its own with growth of 0.6% in the first quarter – but it is recognized that the high degree of uncertainty is not a good traveling companion for those seeking stability, that is, values to take refuge in.

"We do not foresee relevant financial impacts," Galán indicated. José Vicente de los Mozos, CEO of the technology and defense company Indra (which has earned 76 million by March, 28% more) was even more optimistic and acknowledged what has been a recurring fact in history: war is "positive" for the accounts of a company dedicated to the military industry. In fact, the investment cycle that this sector is experiencing has not gone unnoticed for a long time by other companies that see in the rain of millions a business opportunity. This is what Cellnex has anticipated during the presentation of its quarterly results (it has lost 37 million euros).

Few companies have reported provisions for the war in Iran. In the case of banks, for example, only BBVA has done so (100 million euros). "We hope the war does not drag on because it benefits no one [...] If [the conflict] lasts much longer and causes an impact on the price of oil, which is the way it transmits to the economy, inflation will increase, interest rates will also rise, and [Spanish economy's] growth will suffer," said the CEO of the Basque bank, Onur Genç. However, the financial institution is also among those with a significant market close to the conflict zone: Turkey.

All in all, for the banking sector – pending Sabadell, Bankinter has earned 291 million euros; Banco Santander 5,455 million and CaixaBank 1,572 million – Christine Lagarde's (ECB) words this Thursday pointing to an interest rate hike in the summer sound like a godsend. For now, in a context of weak economic growth in the euro area, the ECB has not wanted to press the accelerator despite inflationary pressures. But the financial sector has long been one of the engines of the Spanish selective index due to the good performance of credit and stable interest rates. At the same time, it acts as a catalyst for other activities such as construction companies (Sacyr has earned 38 million, 40% more), which are actually the most bullish firms on the stock market along with steel companies (ArcelorMittal has reduced profits, but has boosted revenues).

But the energy market is global and this has indeed left its mark on some specific companies. The case of Repsol is an example, although the impact has been positive. The price of crude oil and its derivatives have boosted the profits of the oil company, which is producing more than ever precisely because of the crisis in Hormuz. While at Naturgy the same has happened with gas – an increase in the consumption of this fuel is added since the Spanish electricity system is in reinforcement mode due to the power outage –. Iberdrola, for its part, benefits from the regulated business of electricity transmission and distribution networks, as well as the deployment of renewables, the only path it advocates as "viable" if one wants to escape from what it means to depend on fossil fuels from other countries. All of this is one side of the energy market coin. Consumers are the other.

And what does the stock market say?

But it is not enough to look at the results obtained. In fact, one of the keys that helps to understand whether Ibex companies are suffering or not is to see the evolution in the stock market. The Ibex-35 closed the week at 17,781 points and has revalued by 0.5%. Throughout April, the second month of the war, and coinciding with the results, it has done so by 4.29%, the best revaluation of the year. In this way, it has managed to partially recover the falls of March, when the conflict broke out. At that time, the index was close to 18,500 points, but it fell to 16,700 points.

The evolution of the Spanish selective index since the conflict broke out has been marked by the closure in the strait and the pressure on the price of oil, the economy and, therefore, the central banks. But investors seem to continue to breathe easily in view of the peace negotiation information, and especially in view of the possibility that this strategic enclave will be reopened and ships will sail again.