Is rent really going down?
The value of a square meter in Barcelona has been rising for two quarters, while the surface area of apartments has been falling.
BarcelonaWhen we talk about new regulated rental contracts in Barcelona, the answer is clear: yes, rental prices have fallen since the cap came into effect in March 2024. They have done so every quarter, both in Catalonia and Barcelona. In fact, we already knew the data for the first three months of 2025, the highest ever.
These new figures were accompanied by the same message from the Spanish government: prices are falling and are not affecting the stability of contracts in Catalonia. "We will say it as many times as necessary: the housing law works," added this time the Minister of Housing and an Urban Agenda, Isa.
The answer to the question of whether the housing law is working, beyond the fact that it is only fully implemented in Catalonia and its impact on prices, is measured by other variables, such as the number of contracts signed (one of the main criticisms of its detractors is that supply is falling), the departure of housing, and the stability of rents (i.e., a rental market for those wanting to enter). And for the moment, a year after the cap, the number of new contracts is falling, but fewer are also being terminated, which results in less tenant turnover. Barcelona.
Within this set of effects, which includes the displacement of the supply of regulated rentals to seasonal and room-based rentals, there is another element related to price that makes the following question legitimate: are rent prices really falling? While this is down year-on-year—this has been the case for the last four quarters—contract prices have not always fallen in the quarterly comparison: in Catalonia, they increased from the second to the fourth quarter of 2024, but fell again from the fourth to the first quarter of this year.
However, this is only part of the picture: the contract price. The data published by Incasòl also shows the evolution of the price per square meter of rent in Barcelona—there is no data for Catalonia—and it shows a slightly different trend: while it has also fallen by 3.26% compared to a year ago, it has actually increased in the last six months in the quarterly comparison. How is it possible that the price of rental contracts has fallen in Barcelona in the last two quarters, but the price per square meter has increased? The answer lies in the size of the apartments.
Since the cap came into effect, the average surface area of new regulated rental contracts in Barcelona has been decreasing, from 75 m² at that time to 71 m² today. This is the lowest level in the last eight years and the second lowest figure on record. Furthermore, this reduction in surface area is 5% in one year, the most significant in the historical series.
A smaller apartment market
This smaller floor area, in parallel with the increase in the price per square meter—while the average contract price has fallen, the trend per square meter has been the opposite in the last three quarters—may have several causes, including tenants with better apartments having lower turnover or landlords taking larger apartments off the regulated rent market or even selling them. "We need to consider the quality of the housing. Those rented now may be of lower quality, since if the apartment you have is good, you don't let it go. The turnover is concentrated in lower-quality apartments and drives the average price down. This may explain why prices are falling: not because the price is falling, but also because of the lowest price in Barcelona, the ARA Òscar Gorgues.
According to this expert, it must be taken into account that the apartments most affected by price controls are the largest and highest quality. "Perhaps you won't invest now because you can't pass it on as you would like, and if you are a large holder, you have to lower the price to the level given by the index. This regulation penalizes the highest quality ones," he adds.
The case of Ciutat Vella
There is no district in Barcelona where the rental market price per square meter will fall in the first quarter of 2025: it remains stable in Gràcia, rises slightly in Eixample, Horta-Guinardó, and Nou Barris, and soars in Sant Andreu (+5.79%) and Ciutat Vella (+8.54%). In fact, in this last district alone, the average surface area of new rental contracts fell dramatically in the first quarter of 2025: while in the fourth quarter of 2024 it was 68 m², it is now 62 m².
