High speed takes travelers from planes, but the number of flights does not decrease

BarcelonaHigh-speed rail wins by a large margin in terms of passenger numbers on the main state corridors, but despite this, the number of planes making the same journeys has not decreased, although it is true that the number of seats offered by airlines has fallen. This is the main conclusion of an article prepared by researchers from the University of Barcelona, the Autonomous University of Barcelona, and the Open University of Catalonia, signed by Daniel Albalate, director of the Observatory of Analysis and Evaluation of Public Policies at the UB; Albert Gragera, professor in the Department of Applied Economics at the UAB, and Pere Suau, head of the Sustainability, Management and Transport Research Group (SUMAT), attached to the Research Centre on Digital Transformation and Governance (UOC-DIGIT), and professor of Economics and Business studies.

The article highlights that the liberalization of the high-speed rail market in Spain in 2020 made possible an increase in passengers compared to its competitor: air transport. Aviation companies responded to this increase in competition with a decrease – between 10% and 16% – in seat supply, but maintained flight frequency so as not to harm the connectivity of the hubs.

The European Union supports high-speed rail as a more sustainable form of transport. One of the few countries where the liberalization of rail transport has been applied is Spain. In 2020, the liberalization of operators was decided on the main corridors: Madrid-Barcelona, Madrid-Valencia, Madrid-Alicante, Madrid-Seville, and Madrid-Malaga.

The result of this liberalization was an increase in both service supply and passenger demand. On these corridors, frequency rose from 78 to 115 daily trips and the number of seats increased by 60% (from around 24 million in 2019 to about 37 million in 2023), the article indicates. As for demand, it increased by up to 45% (from about twenty million passengers in 2019 to more than thirty million in 2023).

With these changes in mobility habits, the market share of high-speed trains increased to over 80% in most corridors compared to air travel on routes where both means compete. Aviation companies responded to this competition by reducing seats and replacing some aircraft models with others with less capacity. The frequency of flights, however, was maintained.

Feeding Madrid's 'hub'

"The great increase in high-speed rail in Spain due to liberalization has not allowed for a reduction in the number of flights," highlight the three authors of the article as a conclusion. "This has implications for the promotion of high-speed rail as a more sustainable mode of transport – they add–. Making high-speed rail more attractive through the market does not seem to be a path that allows for significant environmental and climate improvements," conclude the authors. And they point out that the cause could be the interest of network airlines, "which must maintain high flight frequencies even if with smaller planes, since many domestic flights feed the hub" of Madrid-Barajas. "Even if with fewer passengers, these flights are still made to fill intercontinental planes," they indicate.

The authors are skeptical about the possibility of reducing short-haul flights. "In conclusion, if a market liberalization as successful as that of high-speed rail has not been able to reduce flights, hardly any market dynamic will achieve it," they affirm. They even argue that "even if, as intended, Spanish legislation decides to move towards the prohibition of short flights, its impact will be very limited on the number of flights and emissions if the intention to exclude precisely connection flights with the hubs" is maintained.