A golden year: a look back at 2025 through the price of gold

Barcelona2025 has been a turbulent year for both the global and local economies. The fluctuation of the gold price is one of the most reliable indicators, and while it doesn't explain everything, it allows us to understand, in broad strokes, what has happened this year. To begin with, gold has appreciated by 72% in just one year, rising from $2,590 per ounce in January to approximately $4,500 in December 2025. This is a historic record for the price of gold, unprecedented since records began in 1970. This stratospheric performance reflects one clear fact: it has been a year of great economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold is considered a safe haven asset, so in times of instability, investors seek refuge in this active insurance. Let's break it down: what has happened this year?

To analyze gold price fluctuations, it's necessary to consider supply and demand. On the one hand, "of the approximately 5,000 tons of gold available on the market, demand is split between 50% for the jewelry market—which is generally stable and therefore doesn't significantly impact the price—and 50% for investors," explains Xavier Xavier, professor of finance (UPF-BSM) and director of Finavier, to ARA. It is the latter, then, who are the ones who most significantly influence the market. On one hand, there are the central banks, which since 2022, with the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have increased their gold purchases "because they have seen that the United States has imposed sanctions on the dollar, so they have sold dollars and bought gold to protect themselves against possible US offensives." Furthermore, if we look at the chart, we can see a peak in the price of gold starting in April 2025, specifically from the so-called "day of liberation," April 2nd of this year, when US President Donald Trump announced a wave of sanctions. "Central banks, seeing this, thought: let's back down and play it safe," says Brun. AI, tariffs, and rates

On the other hand, there are financial investors, who see gold as a safe haven, and the interpretation is the same as in the case of central banks. Added to this is the fear surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, fueled by the strong growth in the shares of technology companies like Nvidia and Oracle. In fact, the gold price chart also shows a sharp peak in October of that year, when it surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time; an increase driven primarily by the growing fear of the AI bubble bursting, coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the increasing weakness of the US dollar.

In this regard, Brun explains: "There's also the view that gold is a currency, and its value is measured against the US money supply. So, if the dollar loses value, the value of gold increases; they are inversely proportional because gold is denominated in dollars."

Finally, we can't forget the supply side, which comes from the miners who extract the raw material from the earth and from investors who sell their gold holdings. "The cost of extracting ounces of gold has increased significantly in recent years due to high inflation," explains Xavier Brun, "which somewhat increases the price of gold. Therefore, a portion, albeit a very small one, of that increase is due to a rational component." However, it's important to note that, according to data from the World Gold Council, supply has been quite stable for years, and it is ultimately demand that causes the price to fluctuate sharply.

What awaits us?

The sharp rise in the price of gold (demand) is an indicator of the psychological shift in the market and among investors in general regarding the state of the global economy. It doesn't predict crises, but it does highlight the fear surrounding money. Therefore, although it's impossible to know what will happen in 2026, everything points to the gold trend continuing upward for some time. It should also be noted that supply could increase. "Gold producers are making a lot of money, and that can lead to more gold being sought, new areas being excavated, and so on, thus increasing supply," says the professor.

However, "another surge as significant as the one in 2025 is unlikely, because it would mean reaching $9,000 per ounce, and that would only occur in a scenario of serious geopolitical risks," Brun points out. Therefore, the performance of tech companies, the trade war, geopolitical tensions, and the strength of the dollar will set the tone for the coming year.