Equalizing the per capita wealth of the richest in the EU: a path of up to 30 years for Spain

BarcelonaMatching the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the main countries of the European Union (EU) may cost Spain between two and three decades of growth above the average. This is a path already initiated in 2013, but one that requires many more continuous years to equal the leaders in wealth per inhabitant, which are Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, known as the EMU4. This is pointed out by the document The sources of growth in Spain and the main European economies: total factor productivity and sectoral heterogeneity,published by the Bank of Spain.

From 2013 until last year, the Spanish economy has shown greater dynamism than the main economies of the euro area, with growth rates above the average. In fact, GDP growth estimates have had to be revised upwards. These increases have been supported by demographics –that is, the increase in the population, especially immigrants– and job creation. And according to the authors of the document –Rubén Veiga-Duarte, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Alberto Marcos-Fernández, Enrique Moral-Benito and Javier Quintana–, "for the first time since 2000, this greater dynamism has been compatible with a favorable differential in terms of productivity per hour worked and total factor productivity (TFP)".

And furthermore, it has been a contribution from all economic sectors, but with outstanding contributions from branches related to professional services and digital activities. The study indicates that these developments point to a change in pattern with respect to the stage prior to the sovereign debt crisis (decade of the 2010s) "and configure a potentially promising evolution from the perspective of the long-term growth of the Spanish economy".

Insufficient progress

However, these advances remain insufficient to close the accumulated gap with the EMU4. Last year, Spain's GDP per capita stood at around 82% of that of the EMU4 (compared to 79% in 2000). This represents a "limited progress in the convergence process since the beginning of the century," despite growing above the average. Likewise, despite the improvement observed since 2013, "a significant negative differential persists in terms of total factor productivity, the accumulated gap of which has been reduced from around 12% to 8% between 2000 and 2025".

There are studies such as the Phoenix Report, focused on the Catalan economy, which highlight the dynamism of the economy but which have focused too much on low-wage activities, such as hospitality, associated with lower productivity. In fact, the stagnation of productivity – and, therefore, of income per capita – has led an entity such as the Cercle d'Economia to promote the creation of the Initiative for Productivity and Innovation (IPI), which has already published some works, such as the one focusing on technology transfer.

According to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), in 2024 the communities with the highest GDP per capita were Madrid (44,755 euros), the Basque Country (41,016), Navarre (39,076), Catalonia (37,426), Aragon (36,446), and the Balearic Islands (36,011). The Spanish average was 32,633 euros per inhabitant and that of the EU was 39,870. In any case, another document from the Bank of Spain shows that Aragon has displaced Catalonia from third place as the most dynamic autonomous community.

The magnitude of the Spanish gap with the main countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) implies that closing it would require sustaining for a prolonged period –"on the order of two or three decades"– the favorable growth differential observed in recent years, "which highlights the scale of the remaining challenge," assert the authors of the document.

In the study, the authors state that between 2000 and 2025 the average annual GDP growth in Spain was higher than that of the main EMU economies. Specifically, 1.6% compared to 1%, "driven fundamentally by a higher dynamism of the population".

In terms of GDP per capita, the average growth for the entire 2000-2025 period was similar in Spain (0.9%) and the EMU4 (0.7%). However, there were two very different stages. Between 2000 and 2013, GDP per capita in Spain stagnated and the gap with the four main EMU countries widened. On the other hand, since that year ground has been recovered, but not with sufficient speed.