The transformation of the production model
In economics, as in any other field, constantly repeated clichés can become commonplaces that end up shaping majority public opinion. Regarding the recurring issue of the Catalan production model, the idea has taken hold that the country is relentlessly deindustrializing, turning into a "tourist factory," which would largely explain the slowdown in productivity and the stagnation of the Catalan standard of living. Like all persistent clichés, this view of things has some truth, although the reality is much more nuanced. A particularly damaging consequence of clichés is that they divert attention from other facts that are equally or more relevant. In this case, they hide some underlying trends that are less visible, but no less significant.
To dispel clichés, simply consult the annual accounting data published by Idescat. In 2022, the latest available data in the statistical series, the hospitality industry (hotels, bars, and restaurants) contributed 5.7% of Catalonia's GDP, five-tenths of a percentage point lower than in 2000 (6.2%). On the demand side, the share of foreign consumption in the region (a way of capturing the economic impact of foreign tourism) had fallen from 5.3% of GDP in 2000 to 6% in 2022. This increase does not support the transformation of the country as a whole into a "tourist factory,"2 although the available data2 suggest an upward trend. It should be noted that the figure usually attributed to tourism includes, on the supply side, the impact on other sectors (trade, transport, and other related services), and on the demand side, domestic tourism spending (about three-quarters of which is foreign). If, in the case of industry, the spillover and multiplier effects on other sectors were included, its share in GDP would also double.
As for industry, there has indeed been a process of deindustrialization, highly concentrated between 2000 and 2009, but since then its weight in GDP has stabilized (in 2022 it represented 17.7%, a value similar to that of 2012). Current Catalan industry is very different from that which existed at the beginning of the century: it is much more productive, more internationalized, and activities that provide greater added value have gained weight. In this process, the industrial sector has been increasing its capital endowment per job, maintaining practically the same total number of full-time equivalent positions (487,000 in 2022 and 492,000 ten years earlier). The fact that employment across the economy as a whole has increased has led to a decrease in the share of the employed population in industry as a percentage of the total (from 15.8% in 2012 to 14.0% in 2022). In contrast, in the hospitality industry, it has remained relatively constant over the same period (6.8% in 2012 and 6.9% in 2022).
Another common misconception is that the hospitality industry is a very unproductive sector. The reality is that, with an estimated value added per full-time equivalent job of €63,791 in 2022, it is certainly below the average (€70,838.5), but it far exceeds sectors with a more qualified workforce and higher wages, such as certain technical and professional services and education. It should be noted that added value is the sum of the contributions of labor and capital, so labor productivity in sectors that make intensive use of capital goods (such as the hotel industry, for example) can exceed that observed in activities with a more skilled but less capitalized workforce.
A relevant underlying trend, somewhat overshadowed by public debate, is the growing share of advanced, knowledge- and technology-intensive services in total employment. This is a set of fairly heterogeneous activities (computer and telecommunications services, financial services, professional activities and consulting, research and development, education) with a common denominator: they are skilled labor-intensive activities with wages above the average for the economy as a whole. Like industry and tourism, many of these services are exportable, but unlike industry, they are gaining ground in total employment (from 12.6% in 2000 to 18.6% in 2022). On the other side of the scale, a set of low-value-added services with wages well below average (primarily auxiliary services for businesses and individuals, which rose from 11.0% in 2000 to 16.2% in 2022) are also gaining ground in employment. Behind this are significant changes in the division of labor, with companies operating in higher-value-added sectors increasingly tending to outsource certain lower-value tasks to specialized firms. There are also social and demographic changes, such as aging and the greater participation of women in the labor market, which generate greater demand for certain personal services.
In conclusion: the overall picture emerging from statistical sources is far more complex than the one presented by the cliché. More hopeful in some respects, but also more worrying in others. Industry maintains its weight in GVA, and what it loses in total employment is offset by the growth of advanced services, often with higher wages. Over the past two decades, the hospitality industry has maintained a relatively stable share of GVA, much lower than that of manufacturing or advanced services. The bulk of low-value-added activities is concentrated in certain auxiliary services in companies and individuals that are growing above the economic average, as a result of long-term social and organizational changes. The transformation of the Catalan production model will critically depend on the capacity to expand the most knowledge- and technology-intensive activities, which in turn reflect the educational level of the population, both native and newcomers.
