Demand for travel to the United States is falling: the Trump effect is already being felt in travel agencies.

BarcelonaWhen events of global impact occur, especially if they are unexpected, companies and organizations in the tourism sector always resort to the same maxim: tourism is a sector very sensitive to change. This happened with the pandemic, when the industry suffered a historic decline that took years to recover, and now, five years later, the prophecy seems to be coming true again, at least partially. Travel agencies have already noticed a slowdown in travel to the United States, while the arrival of American tourists to Spain and Catalonia has not yet changed.

"We haven't noticed any cancellations; no one comes to agencies saying they don't want to travel to the United States due to the current situation, but we have noticed a drop in new requests," José Manuel Lastra, executive vice president of the Spanish Confederation of Travel Agencies (Ceav), told ARA. This trend was confirmed a few days ago by the Corporate Association of Specialized Travel Agencies (Acave), the main trade association for the sector in Spain. 46% of the issuing agencies surveyed are noticing a decline in travel demand to the United States for the whole of 2025. However, this impact did not extend to the other side: the confederation and the association also agreed that they have not noticed any changes in the arrival of American travelers, nor do they foresee any. "If the number of American tourists decreases, it may be due to an economic issue, given the talk of a possible recession, and it would affect all destinations," says Lastra.

In fact, sources from the Fundació Catalunya la Pedrera explained to ARA that the number of American tourists decreased in January and February compared to the same period in 2024, which was a great year, but by March it was already recovering. A few days ago, the Spanish tourism industry association, Exceltur, simply stated that the sector is facing the most important months of 2025, which begin this Easter, and that they are awaiting the effects of the tariff war, although they maintain their January growth forecast for the sector, set at 4%.

The Minister of Industry and Tourism, Jordi Hereu, has expressed a similar view, calling for caution on Tuesday: "Provisional conclusions are being drawn," said Hereu. The minister acknowledged that there could be "some temporary decrease" in Spanish travelers to the United States, but the converse is not being noticed: "At the moment, there is an increase in American visitors and, therefore, [tourist] attraction continues to be generated," assured Hereu.

What do we know about American tourists?

According to data from the Barcelona Tourism Observatory, Americans (19.9%) were the international tourists with the most bookings in the Catalan capital in April, followed by French (7.4%) and British (6.2%), and also lead the bookings for the coming months. However, the level of hotel bookings for the second quarter of 2025 from the United States is slightly lower than the same period in 2024 in Barcelona city and slightly higher in Barcelona region.

All in all, this is a foreign visitor who has gained importance throughout the country in recent years, particularly with the improvement in air connectivity between cities such as New York and Malaga, Tenerife, and Bilbao, where this connection is scheduled to open on June 1. In 2024, the arrival of tourists from the United States grew by 11.2% compared to 2023, exceeding 4.2 million visitors.

Record for Easter

All in all, the Spanish government is forecasting a new record for international tourists during the Easter period. Specifically, Hereu said that 15 million foreign tourists are expected to arrive in March and April, a 9% increase over last year. Regarding tourism spending, the minister also predicted that it will be a record. The Spanish government estimates that foreign visitors will have an economic impact of more than €20 billion between the third and fourth months of the year, also coinciding with Easter, which is 13% more than the same period in 2023.