The OECD puts figures on the economic impact of tariffs around the world.

The trade war launched by US President Donald Trump will have consequences for the global economy and also for the US. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)think tankof the most advanced economies) has lowered this Monday its GDP growth forecasts for the world, the United States, the Eurozone and countries particularly affected by the increase in tariffs imposed by Trump, such as Canada and Mexico, for 2025. Spain, once again, stands out and will grow more than expected.

"There have been significant changes in trade policies that, if continued, will affect global growth and increase inflation," warns the OECD in its economic forecast report, alluding to the tariff policy of the new US administration, which has provoked a response from most countries. This is the first time that an international organization has quantified the economic impact of the trade war.

According to OECD forecasts, global GDP will grow by 3.1% this year, two-tenths less than it had predicted just three months ago, and by 3% in 2026, three-tenths less than expected before the start of the trade war. The United States economy will also be affected: the OECD forecasts a GDP increase of 2.2% for 2025, two-tenths less than expected, and will moderate to 1.6% (five-tenths less) in 2026. The organization points to "higher trade barriers in several countries, affecting investment and household spending" to explain the moderation in the growth forecasts.

Great concern about tariffs

The OECD's forecasts are based on tariff increases already in place, but do not take into account those that may be imposed in the coming months. The international organization is concerned about the situation and warns that if the trade war escalates further, the impact on economic growth will be greater. "Further fragmentation of the global economy is a key concern. Larger and broader increases in trade barriers would affect growth worldwide," warns the OECD. "Indicators of uncertainty in economic and trade policies have risen sharply to very high levels," insisted the organization's Secretary-General, Mathias Cormann.

The eurozone, long weakened by the weak growth of most of the bloc's large economies—Germany, France, and Italy in particular—will also see its economic growth moderated this year by the ongoing trade war with Washington. Eurozone GDP will only grow 1% in 2025 (0.3% less than expected) and 1.2% in 2026 (also 0.3% less).

The Spanish economy is an exception.

The exception to the moderate forecasts is Spain. According to the OECD, the state's GDP will grow by 2.6% this year, three-tenths more than forecast in December, and by 2.1% in 2026, one-tenth more. Spain, which has been leading the euro in GDP growth for months, remains immune to the impact of the trade war. However, it should be noted that the forecasts do not take into account Trump's threat to raise tariffs on wine, cava, and other alcoholic beverages by 200%.

According to the OECD, the countries suffering the most from the trade war, Canada and Mexico, are also those that will see their economic growth moderate the most. The Paris-based agency has lowered its forecast for Canada to 0.7% (from 2%) for 2025, while for Mexico it estimates negative growth of -1.3% of GDP (the cut is 2.5 percentage points). Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products in an unprecedented move, while Canada has responded with new tariffs, also of 25%, on some US products.

More modest moderation in inflation

The OECD also warns that the trade war will cause the decline in inflation to be more modest. Price increases in 2025 are expected to be lower than in 2024, but the decline is slowing. For G-20 countries, prices will rise by 3.8% this year, three-tenths of a percentage point more than expected, while in the eurozone, inflation will be 2.2%, one-tenth of a percentage point more than expected. In the US, inflation will stand at 2.8% of GDP, two-tenths of a percentage point more than expected.