The IMF does not expect a global recession due to the tariff chaos, but will revise growth estimates.

MadridThe trade war launched by US President Donald Trump is not going unnoticed, least of all the international organizations that monitor the pulse of the global economy. If yesterday, Wednesday, it was the World Trade Organization (WTO) that expressed its concern, this Thursday it was the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s turn. Uncertainty surrounding trade policies has reached "unprecedented levels," acknowledged its top official, Kristalina Georgieva, in her speech ahead of the Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, which begin next week.

Thus, the president of the organization has anticipated that the current scenario forces the IMF to take action and has announced "significant reductions" in its growth projections for the global economy, as well as for individual countries. as well as an upward revision of inflationHowever, Georgieva has ruled out a global recession for now.

The IMF is planning to publish a new edition of its biannual report. World Economic Outlook Next week. As usual, the report includes a series of global and country-specific macroeconomic projections. In the case of the Spanish economy, what the IMF may say next week will come on the heels of a recent upward revision by the international organization for Spain's economic growth in 2025. However, it should be noted that this institution was the most pessimistic about the rebound in Spanish GDP, and its adjustment has meant aligning itself with the 2.5% GDP target. It remains to be seen whether it reverses its position next week.

"The increase in trade barriers directly impacts [economic] growth," warned Georgieva, who cautioned that the tariff chaos caused by the United States is "testing the resilience" of the economy. During her speech, the IMF president also focused on financial conditions and warned that if uncertainty lasts much longer, there is a risk of increased tensions in financial markets, as seen with the fall of the dollar. "These movements should be seen as a warning. If financial conditions worsen, everyone loses," she said.

As usual, the international organization has taken the opportunity to give countries homework. The IMF has urged states to "put their house in order": "In a world of uncertainty, there is no room to delay reforms that improve economic and financial stability," said Georgieva.

Diplomatic Balances

Likewise, like its European partners, the IMF has avoided escalating criticism with the US president, whom it not only did not mention, but has also avoided sending any direct criticism. "What is happening is the result of a loss of trust: trust in the international system and between countries," Georgieva said. Europe, for the moment, has opened a path of negotiation with the White House, while the standoff with China continues.