Iran - US: Let's prepare to loosen our purse strings

We might think that the war in Iran is far away and doesn't directly affect us. But nothing could be further from the truth. This type of conflict has global economic consequences, and in this case, one of the main ones is the increase in the price of a key commodity: oil. When oil becomes more expensive, fuel also becomes more expensive—something you've probably already noticed—and, consequently, many other prices in the economy end up rising. In fact, this situation could generate inflation of 4% again at current prices.

If fuel prices rise, the first to see increased costs are transport companies. To maintain their operations, these drivers ultimately pass on this increase to the price of their services. Businesses, in turn, also pass this increase on to their products or services. Thus, a supermarket will end up selling all its products at higher prices. Ultimately, it is the end consumer who ends up absorbing this increase. In short: if transport becomes more expensive, everything becomes more expensive.

But why is oil rising? It's not because we've all suddenly started filling up our tanks more. The key is global supply. The Strait of Hormuz, now closed, is a vital route for 20% of the world's oil, and important facilities in the region—such as refineries and energy infrastructure—are beginning to be affected by the attacks. When global supply decreases or there's a risk of it decreasing, markets react immediately with price increases.

The shorter the conflict, the sooner we can return to some semblance of normality. However, fuel prices skyrocket when oil becomes expensive, but they usually fall much more slowly when prices drop again. Therefore, we will likely still feel its effects for at least a few weeks.