Does the economy pass through Ormuz?

Financial markets seem unfazed. Despite the war between the United States and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the epicenter of the conflict, and repeated warnings from major international organizations about the risks of a prolonged escalation, the reaction has, for the moment, been one of containment. Or, at least, of a certain indifference. The world's main stock exchanges are trading near all-time highs, and in some cases continue to break records, as if the geopolitical background noise is being muffled by a confidence that, even today, is holding up better than many anticipated. It's not just a matter of markets: household behavior also doesn't seem particularly altered.The stock market is not always a good predictor of the economic future. Sometimes it is right, but it often underestimates risks, especially when they are complex or difficult to quantify. Is this the case? The economic dynamics of the main economies – also the Catalan one – remain relatively solid, at least for now. First-quarter corporate results have been, in general terms, positive and have reinforced the perception that global growth maintains a certain favorable inertia, despite the accumulation of shocks and uncertainties.To this optimism is added another key element: the growing expectation about the impact that artificial intelligence can have on productivity. Not in a distant future, but already today. The latest advances, both in capabilities and applications, fuel the perception of a far-reaching economic transformation, which is not limited to specialized technological sectors, but is beginning to extend to the economy as a whole. If you tried an AI application a few years ago –or even a few months ago– and it disappointed you, try it again. And if you haven't done so yet, the time has come. The qualitative leap is evident, and its transformative potential, difficult to ignore. You will be amazed!Macroeconomic data confirm that the economy is resisting better than could have been feared. In the Spanish case, GDP grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, slightly above what had been forecast before the outbreak of the conflict. This growth is healthy and rests mainly on domestic demand, with a prominent role for household consumption and investment that consolidates the momentum of recent quarters. High-frequency indicators suggest that this inertia is being maintained, even though the conflict has already lasted two months: household spending continues to advance strongly, especially in items sensitive to confidence such as leisure, restaurants, or, more recently, fashion, furniture, and decoration.To all this is added a factor often forgotten, but key to understanding the reaction, so far contained, of the price of energy: before the outbreak of the conflict, global oil reserves were at historically high levels. It is true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has generated a significant deficit in the global production of oil and gas – insufficient, at the moment, to meet demand – and that reserves are being reduced rapidly. But the starting point was relatively favorable.Finally, there is an implicit calculation –risky, but fundamental– that helps explain the markets' serenity. From the outset, they have assumed that the conflict would be short-lived. Perhaps because a prolonged scenario would end up having a serious impact on the global economy, also on the North American one, in a context marked, moreover, by the fall in popularity of the President of the United States a few months before the midterm elections. The fact is that oil and gas futures markets continue to anticipate a contained and time-limited price increase.It is, however, a risky calculation. The situation could turn sour, the conflict intensify and drag on. In this case, the scenario would change substantially: supply problems in some Asian or less resourced countries, a much less accommodating attitude from the markets, sustained tensions in energy prices and, finally, a clear impact on household budgets. We are not yet at this point. Time is running out, but, for the moment, the economy is holding up and looking the other way.