Antoni Bassas's analysis

Nobody wants elections, but we still haven't reached an agreement on the budget.

So, March 20th will bring us spring, but whether it will bring us a new budget is more doubtful. And although everyone rules it out, and Romero explicitly, who knows if it might end up leading to early elections. Given the current state of the world and the country (there could be teachers' strikes next week), that would be an even sadder scenario.

Nobody wants elections, but we still haven't reached an agreement on the budget.
09/03/2026
3 min

If you took your car to fill up with gas this weekend, you'll have noticed it's more expensive. And it's going to be even more expensive for us, because the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran shows no signs of ending, or even slowing down; quite the opposite. The price of a barrel of oil hasn't been this high in four years. Iran is attacking neighboring countries that have American bases, and in Tehran (population 9 million), the air is poisonous due to the plumes of smoke rising from bombed oil depots. And in the midst of this war, Iran is turning. Just a few hours ago, it announced that the successor to the leader of the Islamic Revolution is his son, Mukhta Khamenei, 56, a man considered a hardliner and, therefore, a continuation of the regime. The message from the ayatollahs' regime to Donald Trump and the world is clear: it will resist, no surrender, no negotiations. And you can already imagine Trump's response: the new leader won't last long. That's why I say the war won't end soon and we're going through a very dangerous time, because Israel doesn't intend to back down and anything can be expected from Trump.

The Iran war marks everything, especially because it deepens the certainty that we are in a world where the law of the strongest prevails without any restraint in international law or respect for human rights.

Meanwhile, we continue to wait to find out if next Friday, the 20th, the Catalan Parliament will be able to approve the budget sent by the Spanish Government. We stand where we explained last week: Esquerra Republicana (ERC) does not want to approve it without a guarantee that the Catalan government will collect 100% of the personal income tax (IRPF). Yesterday, the Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero, appeared on Catalunya Ràdio, and when Roger Escapa asked her if, once Spanish Vice President Montero becomes a candidate and the ministry is headed by someone else, the Spanish government might make the gesture that ERC needs, Romero replied:

"I know everyone's eyes are on Montero. She's the one who made it possible to have a new funding model that Esquerra likes. Let me be very clear: if she hadn't wanted it, we wouldn't have gotten it. Therefore, she's in favor; she was a regional minister in Andalusia, and she knows how our infrastructure is, so I believe in that. The issue of personal income tax is more complex because the regional tax agencies aren't prepared to manage personal income tax, which is a massive tax, and the Spanish agency does it very well. It's not that she doesn't want to give it to Catalonia, but that also has implications. The official agreement signed by both governments in July 2025 says we will do it. Trust and the guarantee that this will be done is everything. We've gone through 10 budgets and we still haven't signed one."

But even though the PSC-Esquerra pact is signed, Esquerra says it has no guarantees, because the PSOE told them that wouldn't happen, and therefore, Esquerra says, the PSC should be doing the work, which it isn't, which is to get the PSOE to either stay quiet or at least keep quiet. In other words, March 20th will bring us spring, but whether it will bring us a new budget is more doubtful. And although everyone rules it out, and Romero explicitly, who knows if it could end up leading to early elections. Given the current state of the world and the country (there could be teachers' strikes next week), that would be an even sadder scenario.

Good morning.

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