Antoni Bassas' analysis: Puigdemont against Orriols

Good news should be celebrated, and that's why we begin by mentioning that early this morning we witnessed a double historical milestone for Catalan audiovisualOriol Pla has been crowned in New York with the International Emmy for Best Actor for his role in I, addict (Disney+). And the other Catalan award of the night went to the director from La Ràpita, Joanna Pardos. She won the Emmy for best sports documentary for #It'sOver: diary of the champions (Netflix), which collects the testimonies of the female soccer players regarding the Luis Rubiales scandal at the 2023 World Cup.

But today it's news on the political page the CEO surveyAs we predicted here a few days ago, this would come as a polling earthquake: the PSC would win, forming any government would be very difficult because the most logical blocs don't have enough seats, Aliança Catalana would surge in seats (up to 19-20) and would compete for third place with Junts, because Junts would drop from 35-2. Aliança Catalana would take votes from Esquerra and Vox, but above all from Junts: 2 out of every 10 Junts voters say they will vote for Aliança, 21%.

How did we get here?

This is partly a universal phenomenon. To begin with, the major international far-right anti-immigration ideological currents have reached Catalonia, and in two forms: the Spanish version (Vox) and the Catalan version (Aliança).

Secondly, the system parties have difficulty connecting with an impoverished electorate surrounded by immigration in their children's schools or their CAPs.

This anti-immigration reaction, with Islamophobic characteristics, is especially clear in Catalonia, a country that has received more immigrants than any other in Spain.

The tone and proposals of these parties represent a breakdown in social relations because they advocate distrust of neighbors. In a way, they are parties for the losers of globalization who accept social defeat because it provides them with immediate electoral gains.

But in the case of Catalonia, Aliança Catalana has also become (and this is a specific trait of our country) a reason for living politically for many Catalans who took to the streets during the Process and lived through it emotionally for months. The frustration over its failure has found refuge in the promise of a supposedly firm (in reality, merely authoritarian) discourse from someone perceived as a defender.

The spectacular rise of Aliança (in the polls) would affect the entire Catalan political landscape, but especially Junts, which, as the heir to the Convergència vote, would suffer a very significant defeat in political and social terms. Junts, and above all its leader, Carles Puigdemont, must react. And reacting means doing the opposite of what has happened so far: losing or sidelining key figures and concentrating on the most loyal supporters. It's just a poll, but the result is so bad for Junts that it's more than just a poll.The party's initial reactions, claiming that the CEO is always wrong about Junts for self-serving reasons and makes downward predictions, are a poor response. Many Junts mayors can tell (and do tell) the leadership how things are on the ground among their constituents. And they are as the poll indicates. The first step in solving a problem is accepting that it exists.

Good morning.