What will the weather be like on the day of the eclipse?

BarcelonaThe 12th of August this year is a date that has long been marked by everyone on the calendar. The historic total solar eclipse that Catalonia will experience will paralyze the country and, for a few moments, everyone will be looking at the sky. For this reason, the million-dollar question is obvious: will the weather allow us to enjoy this long-awaited event?

Just with the presence of some clouds, the eclipse can be marred. And let's not even talk about rain, which if it fell would be a setback for the millions of people who are waiting with nerves and anticipation for this moment. It has been 121 years since a total solar eclipse was seen in our country, and the next one will not be seen until 2180. Therefore, concern about the weather on that day is more than justified.

It should be taken into account that we will be in the middle of August. A month characterized by heat and sun during the central hours of the day, but also by an increase in showers and afternoon storms in some areas of the country. And this is the main problem, as the eclipse will take place in the evening, when there may still be remnants of showers or cloudiness.

This afternoon instability usually occurs in the Pyrenees, pre-Pyrenees, and the northeastern regions, where the eclipse will be partial. The totality of the phenomenon will be seen in the southern half of the country, where the risk of rain is usually lower at this time of year.

However, summer storms also occur frequently in the Ports area and the Iberian System. The problem is that the remnants of these clouds often arrive from the west precisely in the evening to the Terres de l'Ebre, Camp de Tarragona, and the Lleida plain, where the eclipse will be total. A factor that will be key to being able to see the phenomenon with more or less guarantees.

What do the maps and data say?

If we look at the open data from Meteocat, since 2009 there has only been one August 12th that has been particularly rainy in general in Catalonia: that of 2010. It is the exception, since the rest of the years indicate that on August 12th it rains less than usual in our country at this time of year. Few years has it rained on a day like this much more than usual. This would translate into the fact that if there are afternoon thunderstorms, they could be more residual and concentrated in mountain areas.

As a curious fact, these same figures indicate that Wednesday – the day on which the eclipse will take place – is the day of the week on which it usually rains the least in the city of Tarragona, one of the epicenters of the eclipse. In Barcelona, Girona and Barcelona it is the second day of the week with the least rain statistically throughout the year, while in Lleida and Tortosa the probability of precipitation increases on Wednesdays.

But what do the different meteorological maps say in the short and medium term for this August 12th? There are still days left, but right now the forecasts indicate that it will continue to be hotter than usual, while the instability would not be significant, with only a risk of some afternoon showers in the Pyrenees and around the Ports that do not seem to be causing problems in the sky in most counties.

Furthermore, long-term models indicate that the classic afternoon instability at this time of year would not intensify until the second half of August, after the eclipse. We will have to follow the updated forecast day by day with great attention.