Ramon Gras: "We have identified plots of land in Catalonia to solve the housing problem in twenty years"

BarcelonaAfter more than a decade of research between Harvard University and MIT, Ramon Gras (Barcelona, 1982) co-founded Aretian in 2018. Through digital twins, this start-up analyzes how a city's morphology influences its economy and innovation. In recent years, it has developed the one for the metropolitan region first and then for all of Catalonia. A project that has the support of the Torres Foundation and Barcelona Global, which is already available to administrations and will soon also be open to the private sector.

What is a digital twin?

— It is essentially a digital replica of a given territory. It is a model based on advanced urbanism, where we recreate with data all urban life –the shape of buildings, street layout, businesses, demographic distribution, services, human interaction...– to understand how the city works.

What does this tool allow?

— Do simply four things: very accurate territorial diagnostics; identify ambitious and realistic goals oriented towards excellence; generate scenario simulations to understand all the options we have before us and, finally, integrate this analysis with the traditional design criteria of urbanism to make decisions, design the spaces and create an adequate territorial strategy. It does not work on its own, but it provides a much finer and more accurate understanding than traditional urbanism.

Argue that it can be key in the housing debate.

— We have identified a deficit in the metropolitan region of close to half a million homes and, throughout Catalonia, of three quarters of a million. With the twin, we have identified 50,000 plots and for each one there are a dozen variables such as how many homes you can build, of what type, density recommendations, price estimates...

How are these plots?

— The quality level of the plot localization is very heterogeneous. There are some of high level, many of medium and medium-low level, and a minority of really low level that are so isolated that we recommend, for the moment, not to intervene.

Are these plots available for building or do we need to carry out all the urban planning management?

— Some have the organization, but not the construction, and others do not yet even have the organization. But they are vacant lots and classified as such. If it is moved forward, the housing problem can be solved in about twenty years.

Does it mean increasing density?

— We have calculated the optimal density for the 940 municipalities in Catalonia. In the case of Barcelona, which now has just over 16,000 residents per square kilometer, the optimum would be around 18,000 or 19,000. This would mean 126,000 new homes. But the available plots are not enough. With those that exist, a maximum of 38,000 or 40,000 could be built.

And what about the other 86,000?

— They should be distributed in Sabadell, Terrassa, Tordera, Sitges, Vilanova, Sant Cugat... Cities that have room to grow. Then there are others, like l'Hospitalet, which should be at densities of 9,000 people per square kilometer and now has neighborhoods where it reaches 50,000.

But the country is not a blank canvas.

— In most of the projects we undertake, there is a certain predefined context that does not determine but does condition. What we see is that if quality interventions are made in a vacant area within a relatively mature city, they benefit the surroundings. Where the intervention is very costly due to the rigidity of very poor quality urbanism, we propose to demolish it.

Demolish it?

— We propose to prioritize the 30,000 plots available in the metropolitan region with a strategy to boost the economy. And carry out demolitions and deep regeneration in a somewhat later phase.

How is the distance between theory and practice bridged?

— The model does not aspire to an ideal world or a happy Utopia, but it greatly helps in two things: guiding towards the line of excellence and avoiding bad practices by reducing uncertainty. Afterwards, naturally, this has to be negotiated with reality. Sometimes there are conditions that are difficult, but what this model allows is a holistic vision. One of the problems is that the perspective of technicians is often very ultralocalist. This can facilitate a quick decision, but one that can have negative repercussions in the medium term.

Where has this vision been lacking?

— Sometimes there are initiatives that can be well-intentioned and enjoy investment, but which are not integrated into a whole. For example, when establishing a knowledge ecosystem linked to health sciences. Barcelona does not have twelve hubs. There should be three large ones, and then secondary hubs in Sant Feliu, Terrassa or Sabadell.

How do you achieve that not everyone wants to be in Barcelona?

— It is true that there is a certain interest from a certain type of companies to be near the airport or the port for a logistical reason, but within that there are many locations. Not everyone has to be in Barcelona if it is not necessary. One of the most obvious problems we see here is that instead of having a certain clustering and helping each other, there is a very large dispersion.

What does it mean?

— When there is a very large dispersion, companies do not have enough entourage of supplier companies around to diversify, and everyone does the same in different places. If there is smart specialization, there can be a circulation of talent, there is less dependence and less cannibalism.

Can you give an example?

— In the field of health, the optimum would be for the Clínic, Germans Trias i Pujol, and Bellvitge hospitals to all do a bit of everything, but to have a certain specialty in oncology, traumatology, and neurology where they are a reference. Now there is an overlap of redundancy where some things are done the same in all three. These people are cannibalizing themselves. And this also applies to industrial companies, research, engineering...

To what extent are the projections made by the twin reliable?

— Very much so. Naturally, in any urban, architectural, and engineering intervention, there is a more objective, more deterministic factor that can be foreseen, and then there is a more subjective element of cultural adaptation to the immediate context. And that is why we would always say that we understand urbanism as an interrelated art and science. It cannot be just an art without analysis, nor can it be just a science because design must be integrated.

What does the twin show in the economic field?

— Within the metropolitan region, we have analyzed 443 industrial estates and found that there are three large groups of economic sectors: 30% are in good health and are moving forward, although more investment in innovation should be made. 50% are growing marginally and should make an effort to grow more. And 20% are those that would be at risk of being outsourced to the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Morocco, Latin America, or China in the next ten to fifteen years.

What type of industry can disappear?

— We have identified some industries that have a great tradition, but which are, in some aspects, at risk. One is the construction industry, which has been very slow to make the leap from the third to the fourth industrial revolution. If it now makes the effort to adapt to digital training, it can have a rebirth like the phoenix. If not, it is a very powerful industry that has come to represent a substantial percentage of the economy that could enter into an almost irreversible decline.

Does the government foresee what the impact of the climate crisis could mean?

— We are working to be able to add an urban resilience and climate adaptation layer to the five pre-existing layers. And also others such as the agri-food sector. The idea is for this to be a twin with multiple layers that becomes enriched and turns into a kind of control panel where science illuminates us on challenges and master lines and integrates with art or creativity to adapt the solution to the context.