Vaccines working better than expected in countries that have immunised the most

BarcelonaThe covid-19 vaccines are working better than expected: experience in the three countries where they have already been administered to a significant percentage of the population - Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom - shows that the results are good. The vaccination has not only helped to reduce the number of hospitalizations and seriously ill people, but also appears, according to preliminary data, to help slow the spread of the virus, i.e. reduce the number of new infections.

It was one of the great unknowns that the clinical studies that had been done before the vaccines were brought to market could not foresee: it was known that the vaccines offered a very high level of protection against the virus - at least in its original form, not so much in the new variants, especially the South African one -, mainly to prevent the most severe forms of the infection. What was not clear was to what extent the vaccines would contribute to slowing the spread of the pandemic, because it is one thing for a person to be protected by having been vaccinated and another for them not to be able to transmit the virus. The first data in this regard, now that only these countries reach a significant percentage of immunised population, are encouraging.

Experts consulted by this newspaper are concerned about whether the alarm generated around the suspension in some European countries of vaccination with AstraZeneca because of a few cases of thrombosis can create more reluctance in the population to receive the vaccine. "The vaccines are working very well: the results are unbeatable and a year ago we would have agreed to them without a second thought. What is happening with AZ does not deserve to generate a negative image of vaccines. We have to wait for the report of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and also be aware that no intervention is 100% safe, especially if it is done on the entire world population. Penicillin has saved millions of lives, although some people are allergic to it. The danger is being magnified", explains to the ARA Julià Blanco, Irsi-Caixa vaccine expert.

Very good results compared to other vaccines

Salvador Macip, doctor and researcher at the University of Leicester and the UOC, points out that "there is no doubt that all the vaccines that have been approved by the drug agencies are safe and have similar efficacy": "The first data from the countries that have vaccinated the most, such as Israel and the United Kingdom, show that hospital admissions and mortality have fallen. And it seems that, in addition, they could also be reducing infections, something that previous clinical studies did not anticipate, but it will have to be confirmed". Macip recalls that the results of covid-19 vaccines "are very good if compared, for example, with the flu vaccine, which has a more variable effectiveness, or with other recent vaccines such as malaria and Ebola, which protect a much lower percentage of the population".

Seeing the results, Josep Jansà, of the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC), from Sweden, stresses that "control measures must be maintained until coverage of more than 60% or 70% of the population is not achieved", which only happens in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Below this threshold, vaccination still has no impact on the spread of the virus: Chile, which has already immunized almost 40% of the population, is seeing how new infections continue to grow, something that Jansà attributes to the relaxation of the measures coinciding with the austral summer.

Europe, stranded

In Europe, the dynamics of the pandemic are little influenced by vaccination, because the rate of immunisation is still very low. In Spain, infections are decreasing, although vaccination is still very slow. For experts, it is a clear case of the pendulum effect: throughout the pandemic it has been the worst hit country in the Old Continent, in relative terms, the second in the world after the United States, which is now also showing an improvement. "There are still too few people vaccinated to mark the dynamics of the pandemic, but where the good results can be seen is on a sectoral scale, where the percentage of vaccination is higher, such as in homes for the elderly, where the drop in incidence is clear. For Blanco, "everything points to the fact that if more vaccines had arrived in Spain we would be in a much better situation".

The low rate of vaccinations in Europe leads us to another spring under severe restrictions: Italy, for example, will again be closed for Easter and in some regions schools and non-essential businesses have been closed. "This has to make us see that here we can be in the same situation in a month from now, with such a small part of the population vaccinated, and easing restrictions fifteen days before Easter, April can become very complicated" warns Blanco. The big question is how people - already exhausted with the restrictions and with clear signs of pandemic fatigue as protests in the streets are increasingly forceful - will face these critical months. With the advent of new vaccines - Janssen's vaccine is nearing approval - there is still a long way to go before we achieve the expected herd immunity.