Torrential rains have increased by a third at the start of this year

BarcelonaThe rainfall in the western Mediterranean during the first two months of this year has been a third more torrential compared to the period before the planet warmed by 1.3°C. This is the conclusion of a report published this Thursday by the international group of scientists from World Weather Attribution (WWA), which analyzed the exceptional rainfall at the beginning of 2026 in northwest and southeast Spain, southern and northern Portugal, and northern Morocco. Specifically, the report concludes that in the southern regions, the increase in rainfall intensity has been 36%, while in the northern regions it has been 29%. Experts highlight the "unusual number" of storms and low-pressure systems that have affected the entire Iberian Peninsula and northern Morocco during January and February, winter months that are typically dry in Spain. In this period alone, nine major storms have already hit, an extraordinary number. The study attributes this increase in extreme weather events to human activity, specifically carbon dioxide emissions. Experts combined observed increases with climate model simulations, and the results demonstrate that human activity is the direct cause of at least an 11% increase in rainfall intensity in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula. "Weather patterns that were once more adaptable are now becoming more dangerous disasters, and that is exactly what climate change means, with increasingly intense and severe rainfall," explains David García García, one of the study's authors and a professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Aerospace Engineering. The epicenter of the extraordinary rainfall of 2026 was the municipality of Grazalema, in Cádiz, where in just a few days the amount of rain that usually accumulates over an entire year fell, exceeding 2,000 liters per square meter and causing widespread damage. In addition to the exceptional and intense rainfall, the report also highlights the episodes of hurricane-force winds that the Iberian Peninsula has experienced in recent weeks. This highly unstable weather pattern, according to the same study, has resulted from several factors. One of them has been the presence of high pressure systems—anticyclones—over northern Europe, causing an atmospheric blocking pattern that has diverted the jet stream and the usual circulation of storms towards lower latitudes. But it's noteworthy that this series of storms has been "supercharged" by atmospheric currents that have brought significant moisture from a major marine heatwave in the western Atlantic. This combination, a consequence of global warming, has intensified rainfall events in our country.

Impacts on infrastructure and housing

The WWA study warns that increasingly torrential rains pose a growing risk to infrastructure and homes built in flood-prone areas, as well as to the people who live in or travel through them. The group of experts also warns of the effects of increasingly frequent strong winds, echoing some of the most striking figures caused by the storms of the last two months. In Spain, floods and damage to infrastructure have caused nearly 12,400 evacuations and affected 115,000 people in 19 towns in the Sierra de Cádiz. The report notes that the Spanish government has had to mobilize more than €7 billion in aid, in addition to the €1.78 billion provided by the Andalusian government. Portugal recorded six deaths during the storm. KristinWith winds of up to 202 km/h, the storm left one million people without power and caused widespread structural damage. In northern Morocco, the floods resulted in 43 deaths, displaced 300,000 people, and inundated 110,000 homes.