Strong warning from scientists to the Government for the arrival of the feared El Niño: "Prepare the country for the worst"

Barcelona"Prepare our country for the worst while we are still in time to prevent the worst from becoming a catastrophe." This is the cry of almost 700 people, including scientists, science communicators, researchers, civil society, and public figures in an open letter addressed to the Government—and to the Generalitat Valenciana—in which they demand action before the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean that is characterized by a massive release of thermal energy into the atmosphere and which can lead to practically unheard-of downpours. Researcher at the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Jordi Solé and UPC professor and Doctor of Physics Olga Alcaraz warned this Tuesday that El Niño will create another layer of heat in a Mediterranean that, as we have seen in recent weeks with exceptional rainfall, is already extremely hot.

It will not be a normal El Niño: it is already being called the super-Niño. Alcaraz explained that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that it will be extremely strong; in fact, before reaching its peak, it already exceeds the records of the most intense El Niño ever seen. It will be global warming on an already overheated planet, and the two scientists warned at an event this Tuesday morning at the UPF that this meteorological phenomenon carries the risk of increasing the planet's average temperature to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the maximum limit set in the Paris Agreement. In the coming months, El Niño may arrive with force on the Peninsula.

"We cannot wait for all of this to happen. We demand action now. Uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction," stated Solé. For this reason, the international campaign Alert El Niño—with patrons such as Javier Bardem or Jane Fonda or the film director Adam McKay—requests in a letter, which was presented simultaneously in Valencia, that strategic reserves of food, medicines, and basic products be established, especially in the Barcelona metropolitan area. In this area, they warn that the primary sector is already suffering from tensions due to high temperatures and the rising costs of diesel, electricity, and fertilizers. The prolonged interruption of transport networks due to a storm, they point out, would not only be a logistical setback, but could turn into a "food security problem".

Added vulnerability

"In Catalonia there is an added vulnerability: of the entire State, it is the area with the highest proportion of buildings in flood-prone areas," the scientists warn. Prevention measures, in their view, also involve strengthening fire prevention and extinguishing resources and increasing monitoring and early warning systems in torrents, riverbeds, and critical points. But not only for rain, they also ask that specific plans be prepared for extreme heat waves, prolonged droughts, floods, fires, maritime storms, and possible interruptions to water or electricity supply, and that, among other actions, effective climate shelters be enabled for the population.

The scientists' forecast is not optimistic. They warn that the country we used to live in, with a mild and pleasant climate, will not return, but rather that we are moving irreversibly towards a tropicalization of the Mediterranean, with a dry, very dry period, and another humid one with heavy rains. "Climate change implies this, and our lives must begin to adapt to it. We must change the cultural paradigm," warned Solé. In fact, they ask that the episodes we are already experiencing, of unprecedented downpours and prolonged droughts, not only be accompanied by reactive management, such as sending an ES-Alert, reducing mobility, and sheltering in place, but by a more "reflective" vision, about how climate change is changing us and what each of us can change to curb it.

The role of the citizenry

In this sense, scientists believe that citizens must be connected to this change and act accordingly. Regarding both governments and citizens, scientists remind us that investing to prevent these phenomena or to experience them with less harm is also a good investment. They recalled that a European Union report estimates the cost of extreme weather events over the last four years at 208 billion euros, and that, approximately, every euro invested today in prevention will save eleven in the future. The most important thing, Solé concluded, is that something much more valuable than money is at stake: "We are talking about human lives".