Strong warning from scientists to the Government for the arrival of the feared El Niño: "Prepare the country for the worst"

Barcelona"Prepare our country for the worst while we are still in time to prevent the worst from becoming a catastrophe." This is the cry of nearly 700 people, including scientists, science communicators, researchers, civil society, and public figures in an open letter addressed to the Government—and to the Generalitat Valenciana—in which they request action before El Niño arrives, a climate phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean that is characterized by a large release of thermal energy into the atmosphere and which can lead to practically unprecedented downpours. Researcher at the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Jordi Solé and UPC professor and Doctor of Physics Olga Alcaraz warned this Tuesday that El Niño will create another layer of heat in a Mediterranean that, as we have seen in recent weeks with exceptional rainfall, is already extremely hot.

It will not be a normal El Niño: it is already being called the super-Niño. Alcaraz explained that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that it will be extremely strong; in fact, before reaching its peak, it already exceeds the records of the most intense El Niño ever seen. It will be global warming on an already overheated planet, and the two scientists warned at an event this Tuesday morning at the UPF that this meteorological phenomenon carries the risk of increasing the planet's average temperature to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the maximum limit set in the Paris Agreement. In the coming months, El Niño could arrive with force on the Peninsula.

"We cannot wait for all of this to happen. We demand action now. Uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction," stated Solé. For this reason, the international campaign Alert El Niño—with patrons such as Javier Bardem or Jane Fonda or film director Adam McKay—requests in a letter, which was presented simultaneously in Valencia, that strategic reserves of food, medicine, and basic products be established, especially in the Barcelona metropolitan area. In this regard, they warn that the primary sector is already suffering tensions due to high temperatures and the rising costs of diesel, electricity, and fertilizers. A prolonged interruption of transport networks due to a storm, they point out, would not only be a logistical setback, but could turn into a "food security problem".

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) already warned a few weeks ago that this El Niño, which would begin at the end of the year, could be the strongest in history and persist until February of next year. "It is acquiring enormous proportions before our eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is entering uncharted waters [...] Temperatures continue to rise and the world is already in a danger zone," warned the Secretary-General of the WMO, Celeste Saulo.

Added vulnerability

"In Catalonia there is an added vulnerability: of the entire State, it is the area with the highest proportion of buildings in flood-prone zones," warn the scientists. Prevention measures, in their view, also involve strengthening fire prevention and extinguishing resources and increasing monitoring and early warning systems in torrents, riverbeds, and critical points. But not only for rain, they also ask that specific plans be prepared for extreme heatwaves, prolonged droughts, floods, fires, maritime storms, and possible interruptions to water or electricity supplies, and that, among other actions, effective climate shelters be enabled for the population.

The scientists' forecast is not optimistic. They warn that the country we used to live in, with a mild and pleasant climate, will not return, but rather that we are moving irreversibly towards a tropicalization of the Mediterranean, with a dry, very dry period, and another humid one with heavy rainfall. "Climate change implies this, and our life must begin to adapt to it. We must change the cultural paradigm," warned Solé. In fact, they ask that the episodes we are already experiencing, of unheard-of downpours and prolonged droughts, not only be accompanied by reactive management, such as sending an ES-Alert, reducing mobility, and confining ourselves, but by a more "reflective" vision, about how climate change is changing us and what each of us can change to curb it.

The role of the citizenry

In this sense, scientists believe that citizens must be connected with this change and act accordingly. As far as both governments and citizens are concerned, scientists remind us that investing to prevent these phenomena or to experience them with less harm is also a good investment. They have recalled that a European Union report puts the cost of extreme climate phenomena over the last four years at 208 billion euros, and that, approximately, every euro invested today in prevention will save eleven in the future. The most important thing, concluded Solé, is that something much more valuable than money is at stake: "We are talking about human lives".