José Ángel Barasona: "If the ASF has escaped from a laboratory, it is more likely to have been intentional than accidental."

BarcelonaJosé Ángel Barasona is a Ramón y Cajal researcher at the Veterinary Health Surveillance Center (VISAVET) of the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM). He has been researching African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar for 10 years and is now working with wild boar infected with ASF.

Just a week ago, the Ministry of Agriculture explained that the European Union's (EU) animal health reference center had concluded that the virus that caused the Bellaterra outbreak belongs to a new genetic group, group 29. What does this mean?

— This means it's a strain that, a priori, has never been described in the European Union, nor in a laboratory. In other words, it's a strain that was previously unknown, which is why it's been given the number 29, since until now we had only described genetic groups 1 through 28. Group 1 is the reference strain, the well-known Georgia 07 used in centers that research African swine fever (ASF). It's also true that we don't know what's currently circulating in Eastern Europe, only in Western Europe.

So the detected strain is not the same one used by the IRTA-Cresa center that has been in the spotlight in recent days?

— It is definitely not Georgia 07. It is not the genetic group of the Georgia 07 strain, which is the mother of all genotype II ASF viruses currently circulating in the Northern Hemisphere.

There has been much talk about a possible escape of the virus.

— The whole lab situation bothers me a lot too. Honestly, I've been working with the wild boar swine fever virus for 10 years in a BSL-3 lab—a lab with the same biosafety containment level as IRTA-Cresa—and I find it very hard to believe that it could accidentally escape from a BSL-3 lab.

Isn't there a possibility of human error?

— It's extremely unlikely. I've spent days trying to figure out how such an accident could happen. The only thing I can understand is that if it came from a lab, it's more likely to have been intentional than accidental. There's just no way around it. Many of the protocols are designed so that, if there is human error, the consequences can be predicted. These research centers are like bunkers.

And if it were a case of negligence, how much virus would have to be released to cause an infection?

— This virus doesn't work that way. It might happen with foot-and-mouth disease because it's a very small virus that can get stuck on clothing or skin, but the ASF virus is much larger and relatively clumsy at infecting.

What does it mean?

— It's not a virus with a high transmission rate. It's a large virus that needs infected tissue or blood. To infect, an animal needs to come into direct contact with blood, infected tissue, or hemorrhagic secretions. That's why I can't understand how it could be an accident. And frankly, I hope it isn't because, as a research center, we have to be sure that we can guarantee this doesn't happen. Obviously, zero risk is impossible, but the chances of something like this occurring are minimal.

Many people have mocked the sandwich theory of contagion. What do you think?

— I wouldn't rule out this theory at all, because it's how this virus has spread. Not only in historical outbreaks, but also in current ones. If contaminated meat products are processed without proper health controls, these products then enter the food chain. That's why it wouldn't surprise me, for example, if a tourist were to bring in contaminated products from Eastern Europe.

There has also been talk that Collserola could be a risk area for African swine fever (ASF).

— Well, it must be said that the ministry itself had a risk map that cross-referenced wild boar density on one hand, high-occupancy highways or motorways on the other, and service areas. With this map, one of the three highest-risk areas in all of Spain was precisely where the incident occurred in Bellaterra, in that section of the AP-7. Another was on the A-6, very close to Madrid, and another was in the outskirts of Málaga. That's why I also want to defend my colleagues at CRESA. All hypotheses are open, and until what could have happened is actually verified and proven, for me, the accident remains one of the least likely possibilities.

However, the ministry says it is investigating whether it came from a laboratory.

— Yes, and what worries me most is that they handed it over to SEPRONA (the Spanish environmental protection agency), as if there were something more to it. That the ministry made it public so quickly... There might be information we don't know about.