Hurricane Gabrielle will hit the Iberian Peninsula as a storm: Will it reach Catalonia?

BarcelonaWe're in the middle of hurricane season, and one in particular is getting a lot of buzz these days: Gabrielle. It initially reached Category 4, but upon reaching higher latitudes and colder Atlantic waters, it dropped to Category 1, the lowest on a scale of 5. This Friday, it weakened further and hit the Azores as a tropical storm, bringing strong winds, rain, and severe stormy weather. The forecast is for the former hurricane to lose even more strength and reach the west of the Iberian Peninsula over the weekend as an extratropical storm.

Although it will reach the Peninsula with climatic characteristics that are now more common in these latitudes, it will maintain some subtropical features and will cause locally significant phenomena, such as downpours and strong winds in some areas.

The first rainfall will arrive in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday due to the approaching storm, especially in Galicia. However, it appears that the main event will pass this area by. The latest maps indicate that the center of the storm will make landfall on Sunday in southern Portugal, near Lisbon. Throughout the day, its effects will reach the center and south of the country, but also Extremadura, western Andalusia, and nearby areas of southwestern Spain. In all of these areas, locally heavy rains are possible, with some downpours and accumulations that may in some cases exceed 50 l/m². All of this will be accompanied by wind and altered sea conditions along the entire west coast of the Iberian Peninsula.

Could the rain reach Catalonia?

There is still some uncertainty about the final evolution of the former hurricane. Gabrielle, which will determine its final extent. However, current maps indicate that, once it makes landfall, the center of the storm will move toward the southwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday. As it rotates counterclockwise, its position will drive moisture-laden winds from the sea inland along much of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean coast.

Thus, the debris flow from this storm will reach Catalonia indirectly. On Sunday, cloud cover will increase significantly, and scattered showers will fall, especially in the south of the country. Some precipitation will also reach the Valencian Community and the central and southern Iberian Peninsula, with downpours especially in Andalusia, southern Extremadura, and parts of Castilla-La Mancha. In fact, the storm may encounter cold air aloft, which could reactivate the precipitation.

On Monday, we could expect rainfall in the Ebro region and surrounding areas, but the rest of Catalonia would be more immune to this situation, as the center of the storm is located too far southwestern Spain, below the Strait of Gibraltar and the Gulf of Cadiz. According to the models, rainfall could be heavy and intense in parts of the Valencian Community, the southern Balearic Islands, Murcia, the south and east of Castilla-La Mancha, and Andalusia. This situation is still very uncertain and will need to be confirmed, as a slight shift in the storm's trajectory would alter the forecast.

Is it normal for ex-hurricanes to reach the Peninsula?

It's not uncommon for such phenomena to reach Europe during the fall. Hurricanes are generated in the warmer waters of the tropical Atlantic, and each year, as they move from west to east and toward higher latitudes, they lose strength. They eventually become storms that hit the west coast of Europe. This situation is more common from France northward, but is not as common on the Iberian Peninsula. What has been observed in recent years is that some hurricanes reach Category 1 status further north than normal due to the climate crisis and warming sea waters.