Hurricane Gabrielle will hit the Iberian Peninsula as a storm: Will it reach Catalonia?

BarcelonaWe're in the middle of hurricane season, and we'll be hearing a lot about one in particular in the coming days: Gabrielle. It is a Category 1 storm—the lowest on a scale of 5—and is located in the Atlantic Ocean. Over the next few hours, it will make full impact on the Azores, with winds that could reach over 110 or 120 km/h and generate very large waves. Later, over the weekend, the hurricane will head towards the Iberian Peninsula, but will lose strength and arrive as an extratropical storm.

Although it will impact the Peninsula with climatic characteristics that are more common in these latitudes, it will maintain some subtropical features and will cause locally significant phenomena, such as downpours and strong winds in some areas.

The first rains will arrive in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday as the storm approaches, especially in Galicia. But it appears the storm will be the main event of the storm's impact. The latest maps indicate that the center of the storm will make landfall on Sunday between central and southern Portugal, and throughout the day its effects will also reach Extremadura, western Andalusia, and nearby areas of southwestern Spain. In all of these areas, heavy rains could fall, with downpours and accumulations that could in some cases exceed 50 or 100 l/m². All of this is accompanied by wind and altered sea conditions along the entire west coast of the Iberian Peninsula.

Could rain reach Catalonia?

There is still much uncertainty about the final evolution of the former hurricane. Gabrielle, which will determine its final extent. However, current maps indicate that the center of the storm will move toward the southwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday. As it rotates counterclockwise, its position will drive moisture-laden winds from the sea inland along much of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean coast.

Thus, in Catalonia, cloud cover will already increase on Sunday, and the first showers could fall, mainly in the south of the country. Some precipitation will also reach the Valencian Country and the entire southern half of the Iberian Peninsula, with downpours especially in Andalusia and southern Castilla-La Mancha. In fact, the storm may encounter cold air at altitude, which could reactivate the precipitation.

On Monday, we could expect rainfall in the Tarragona region and surrounding areas, but the rest of Catalonia would be more immune to this situation, as the center of the storm is located more in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, below the Strait of Gibraltar. According to the models, rainfall could be heavy and intense in parts of the Valencian Community, the southern Balearic Islands, Murcia, eastern Castilla-La Mancha, and the entire Mediterranean coast of Andalusia. This situation is still very uncertain and will need to be confirmed, as a slight shift in the storm's trajectory would significantly alter the forecast.

Is it normal for ex-hurricanes to reach the Iberian Peninsula?

It's not uncommon for such phenomena to reach Europe during the fall. Hurricanes are generated in the warmer waters of the tropical Atlantic, and each year, as they move from west to east and toward higher latitudes, they lose strength. They eventually become storms that hit the west coast of Europe. This situation is more common from France northward, but is not as common on the Iberian Peninsula. What has been observed in recent years is that some hurricanes reach Category 1 status further north than normal due to the climate crisis and warming sea waters.