Debunking myths about immigration: origin does not explain who commits crimes

BarcelonaIt's common for readers to ask, in the comments on news articles about events in ARA, about the nationality or origin of the person arrested by the police. This is just one example that demonstrates how an issue has entered the public debate, often gaining traction in the political sphere thanks to certain political groups: the perceived link between newly arrived people and a greater propensity to commit crimes. The Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan police) do not release the nationality of those arrested, as origin is not considered a factor in criminal behavior, but the Catalan police have indicated they will begin providing more details for certain types of crimes starting next year. Currently, foreigners make up 18% of the residents of Catalonia and represent 52% of the prison population and more than half of all police arrests. However, both spokespeople for the Catalan police and experts consulted by this newspaper urge going beyond the raw data and contextualizing it by taking into account the truly decisive factors, such as socioeconomic ones.

Paolo Pinotti is dean and director of the chair of economic analysis of crime at Bocconi University in Milan. Last year he co-published an extensive work in the American journal Journal of Economic Perspectives Analyzing crime data from 23 European countries between 2002 and 2017 to study the link between crime and immigration, Antonio Andrés Pueyo, professor of psychology and criminology at the University of Barcelona (UB), stated during a conversation with ARA that "these may be different countries, different contexts, but I think it's fair to say that, overall, there is little to no evidence that crime rates increase in places where more immigrants arrive." Pueyo also recently conducted a study on this link, focusing primarily on the overcrowding of migrants in prisons. "Nationality does not explain incarceration, but rather the accumulation of structural disadvantages that affect immigrant communities more intensely," the document concludes. Social and economic inequalities have far more weight in a person's likelihood of committing crimes than their origin, which is not considered a risk factor or a predisposing element. One is not more dangerous depending on where one was born.In fact, according to sources within the Department of Justice, the factors that explain the risk of crime and recidivism are linked to more social elements. "Nationality is simply a demographic variable that lacks its own criminological weight," state the same sources, specialists in the analysis of recidivism and propensity to commit crimes.

In fact, to calculate these elements using various tools, such as the RisCanvi algorithm—which assesses the risk of recidivism—authorities take many other factors into account. "Criminological research and internationally used assessment tools agree that the main factors associated with the risk of crime and recidivism are socioeconomic, educational, relational, and clinical in nature, and not the national origin of individuals," state the same sources at the Ministry of Justice.

Lack of education and opportunities

71% of the prison population has recently taken the RisCanvi test, and the data, which ARA has accessed, highlights the importance of the factors measured to understand why a person commits a crime. The first factor to consider is education. 73% of prisoners lack basic education. In Spain, there is a significant educational gap between foreigners and native-born inmates: 29% of foreigners have only completed primary education but have not graduated from compulsory secondary education (ESO), compared to 13% of Spaniards in this situation.

Returning to the topic of prisons, 67% of inmates have experienced employment problems. In fact, 61% of foreign prisoners lack financial resources. In contrast, only 35% of Spanish inmates have such resources, according to a study by the same department, which ARA has accessed. This variable is key to understanding, specifically, a type of crime: property crimes, such as theft and robbery. As Pueyo explains, these are crimes directly linked to a lack of financial resources. In many cases, those who commit these crimes are repeat offenders.

According to data from the Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan police), of the 637 repeat offenders identified in Barcelona in 2024, 57% were of Moroccan and Algerian origin. Similarly, 66% of those who committed employment-related crimes were foreign nationals. Again, economic and social factors are the driving force behind this trend: 80% of those who committed property crimes have had difficulty finding employment. And in these cases, the recidivism rate doubles, reaching 30%, according to data from the Ministry of Justice. Theft is the most frequently committed crime in Barcelona, and almost 40% of the prison population is incarcerated for property crimes, although these offenses carry lighter sentences and do not always result in imprisonment. Nevertheless, they are the most numerous and also the most visible crimes, as they often end up back on the streets.

The natives and the most serious crimes

In some more serious crimes, the percentage of Spanish detainees and prisoners is higher. 67% of those arrested by the Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan police) for gender-based violence crimes since 2014 are of Spanish origin, as are half of those imprisoned for sexual assault and 53% of those convicted of homicide. Conversely, foreigners make up almost 60% of those imprisoned for property crimes. Pueyo insists that each crime has a specific perpetrator profile and risk factors that lead to its commission. Similarly, the crimes for which people currently in prison are serving sentences, crimes committed some time ago, do not correspond to current crime statistics. In their extensive study, Paolo Pinotti and researcher Olivier Marie found that certain groups of foreigners do have "a greater propensity to commit crimes than native-born individuals." However, they are a very specific group: migrants without residence or work permits, without legal status in their host country. "They are poor people who cannot access regular jobs in any way," he reflects. These are the ones who end up committing property crimes or crimes related to petty drug trafficking. In fact, 60% of those arrested for drug offenses in Catalonia in the last 15 years are foreigners. Pinotti's analysis concludes that 80% of migrants who commit crimes are undocumented. They have also found that when a person regularizes their status, the likelihood of committing crimes decreases. "Romanians and Bulgarians, when they entered the European Union, obtained legal status throughout the EU, and their probability of committing crimes was reduced by approximately 50%," he points out.

"Risk factors are related to socioeconomic factors, and certain groups within the foreign-born population are more likely to have these factors. This leads to overrepresentation in the data," notes Blanca Garcés, a researcher at the Center for International Studies and Documentation. The data further supports this thesis: 37% of foreign prisoners lack family support, compared to 17% of Spanish prisoners. Another very important statistic is that 67% of prisoners in Catalonia have problematic drug use, whether legal or illegal. Pueyo insists that addictions are always a risk factor for crime, especially when it comes to understanding violent behavior.

The perpetrators, young men

Pueyo also insists that the study of crime can never be based on overall population percentages. Foreigners represent 18% of Catalonia's inhabitants, but, first, it must be taken into account, as the Director General of the Police, Josep Lluís Trapero, explained, that only 0.3% of the immigrant population is in prison. "One person out of every 333. The debate on immigration affects all 333; the debate on crime, one," he stated. Furthermore, certain criminal profiles exist. Currently, more than 90% of prisoners are men, and the average age is 39. In other words, the profile of a perpetrator of a crime—although it can vary depending on the type of crime—is usually that of a young man, which is also the population group with the highest concentration of migrants in Catalonia. Foreigners represent 18% of the population, but among men aged 30 to 40, they make up 35% of the total. Their presence doubles. Therefore, in this age group, they are not such a significant minority. And behind this statistic lie very evident social and economic risk factors. For example, the gross annual salary of foreigners is 25% lower than that of Spaniards, or that 46.8% of the People of migrant origin in Catalonia are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Among people with Spanish nationality, this figure is 19.4%.

Neighborhoods and roots

Several academic studies, such as that of American criminologist Ramiro Martínez Jr., indicate that foreigners often end up in neighborhoods with greater social inequality because housing and living conditions there are more affordable. These neighborhoods also tend to have higher crime rates. According to this US study, this leads to a greater predisposition to commit crimes. In fact, 51% of prisoners incarcerated in Catalonia belong to social groups at risk of crime, such as those living in environments linked to drug trafficking or prostitution and having ties to marginalized youth. Another factor identified in Pinotti's study is that during these processes, and due to a lack of opportunities, they end up replacing native-born criminals, which does not always imply an increase in crime rates.

Community ties are also a key element in assessing the risk of committing crimes. In Catalonia, 36.43% of prisoners lack family or social support. In other words, they lack a support network. Furthermore, only 16% of inmates own a home. There are other variables related to community ties: 47.7% of prisoners do not understand Catalan. "Reducing the analysis of crime to a person's background is an oversimplification that does not reflect reality and can generate unjustified stigmas. In contrast, focusing on real risk factors allows for the development of effective, evidence-based public policies aimed at prevention and reintegration," say sources from the prison administration. In this area, mental health is also a factor to consider: 13% of Catalan prisoners suffer from long-term psychotic or bipolar disorders.

"We are failing"

That poverty, social exclusion, and lack of education are factors behind criminal behavior is empirically and undeniably true, reflecting a stark reality. "We are failing; we must demand accountability in public policy," states Blanca Garcés. "Severe social exclusion, precarious employment, and lack of access to housing have a negative impact on those who experience them and also on their surroundings. And this can only be addressed by confronting the exclusion of these individuals," she explains. The researcher, an expert in migration, adds that we cannot "receive them poorly, generating marginalization, because that is what ultimately leads to criminal behavior." In this regard, Garcés also emphasizes the importance of proper "deinstitutionalization." In other words, ensuring that unaccompanied minors are not left destitute upon reaching adulthood. Then, according to several police sources consulted, this lack of everything leads to crime, and explains some of the complaints from residents of certain towns who live alongside criminal activity and a host of street crimes against property. Just as exclusion cannot be denied, neither can its impact on those who suffer it: migrants and local residents.

The debate on nationalities

Many residents of Catalonia are asking, either in the comments section of this newspaper or elsewhere, about the nationality of someone who has committed a crime. The Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan police) do not officially disclose the origin of their detainees or those under investigation. For some weeks now, the Ertzaintza (Basque police) has been doing so, although the Basque government mandated that they only make nationality public when the person is Spanish. This phenomenon has also been widely debated in the United Kingdom since the police leadership authorized the release of details about the origin of detainees to counter defamatory rhetoric from the far right. However, the Catalan Minister of the Interior, Núria Parlon, explained this week that they do not disclose the nationality of repeat offenders following the guidelines of the code of ethics of the Catalan Journalists' Association. "What's important is not whether they are a man or a woman, or their weight, whether they are married or single, but that they are a persistent offender," she stated at a press conference this Monday. In an annex to the Code, the College of Journalists recommends not making nationalities public. It states: "The use by audiovisual media of words and concepts related to nationality or places of origin to designate in headlines an individual or group of individuals who have committed criminal acts is discriminatory."

At the same press conference, Trapero announced that when they present the crime statistics for Catalonia in January, they will conduct a more contextual analysis of specific crime types and the profile of the majority of offenders, including in some cases whether they are foreign nationals. This was, in fact, already done for some types of crime last year. According to several sources within the Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan police), the Catalan police find that they do not make nationalities public, but then they are required to disclose them in transparency requests or parliamentary questions. This results in the data ultimately being made public anyway, but without context or analysis.

Both Pueyo and Garcés acknowledge that it's a question many people ask, but they warn of the risk involved in disclosing nationalities: the criminalization of a group. Therefore, they insist that it should be noted that none of the cited studies conclude that nationality is a risk factor leading to crime.

Racial profiling

Why publish the nationality only of criminals? This question is posed by Karlos Castilla, PhD in Law from Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) and research coordinator at the Catalan Institute for Human Rights (IDHC), who warns of the risk that this data "will be used and manipulated as desired and without the appropriate context." He adds that it could backfire on the transparency that the initiative is, in principle, seeking. Information about origin "can reinforce stereotypes and prejudices" if it is only released when the suspect is arrested and, conversely, if no follow-up is conducted on how the proceedings conclude, this expert points out, since "arrest does not imply guilt." Majda Moustaid Khadir, from the Unit against Fascism and Racism, criticizes the presentation of nationality "as an aggravating factor" because "the focus is on the origin, not the crime," and, moreover, it leads the public to believe that the initiative is merely "solving a problem of" solving a problem of "solving." He claims that the police "play into the hands" of the far right, as they only exacerbate the stigmatization of a significant percentage of citizens born outside the State

On the other side of the arrests are the identifications and detentions based on racial or ethnic profiling, a procedure expressly prohibited in article 21.4.a of Law 19/2020 on equality, Castilla points out, but which continues to be carried out, according to human rights organizations. Kadhir is still shaken by what happened to her a few hours earlier when two female officers asked for her identification while—she recounts—she happened to be watching the eviction of a squat in the Raval neighborhood without having said a word to the police. "I am a woman of color, visibly Muslim, and my presence made them uncomfortable, while the racist and xenophobic comments of a group of white Europeans did not," she continues. For the activist, racially based identifications "are a form of coercion, an abuse of power," and she confesses that the episode has made her feel that her "right to be a citizen is illusory." Castilla maintains that what "would truly help dismantle rumors and misinformation" would be to identify the origins of foreign doctors, for example, since only sharing the origins of those who break the law will only serve to criminalize and stigmatize a significant number of citizens. Like Khadir, the doctor of law emphasizes that the measure "falls into the racist rhetoric of the far right," without "showing the positive things that immigration also brings."