Health Department warns that a fourth wave would now fill ICUs with 800 patients

Santa Coloma de GramenetThe decline in the curve of infections has not only stagnated, but has directly stopped: the epidemiological indicators no longer go down, and if they do the decrease is practically imperceptible. Even some important indicators to monitor the transmission of covid have rebounded slightly, such as the rate of infection or Rt, which estimates the speed of spread of the virus and is already 0.99. When the threshold of 1 is exceeded, the pandemic enters a phase of expansion. But, in addition, the pressure of care is falling too slowly and there are still 423 covid patients in intensive care units (ICU). In the event of a fourth wave, warn health authorities, there would be over 800 ICU admissions only for covid, following the pattern of previous waves.

This is the worrying message this Thursday from the consellera of Health, Alba Vergés, and the director of the Catalan Health Service (CatSalut), Adrià Comella. Faced with this epidemiological setback, the Government has demanded that the population to act with "maximum caution", especially this weekend, when a significant increase in mobility is expected, since some travel restrictions have been lifted. "We can't let our guard down. Mobility is not the problem if when you move is with your cohabitation bubble and all safety and prevention measures are followed," insisted Vergés.

The director of CatSalut has warned that whilst last week the number of patients in ICU fell by 8% over the previous week, whereas this week it has only fallen by 2%. A month ago, however, the decline was 20%. "At the moment we have 1,409 covid patients in hospital and 423 in the ICU. We will be quite a few days with this same figure or very small decreases and we will stay around 400 patients," admitted Comella

Hospitals, he insisted, have entered "a plateau" that worries the health authorities in the coming days. The ICUs are not emptying out fast enough and, having found that whenever there is an expansion of the pandemic about 400 new patients are admitted into ICUs before the restrictions take effect, a fourth wave would mean 800 ICU beds occupied only by covid patients. The situation in the ICU would be worse than at the beginning of the third wave, in December, when there were 320 patients, and would also exceed the peak recorded on February 1, which was 731 patients. Vergés warns that this would be a "potentially dangerous scenario that would compromise the health system". Today, however, Health says that the rest of conventional activity is not compromised or is being postponed.

Given that other European countries have experienced a similar situation and are now in a phase of high transmission and hospitalisations, Comella admits that there is concern in the Health Department about whether the brake on current indicators is heralding a new rise in the curve. Although the Government hopes to maintain the new laxer measures until March 28, as set out in the current resolution, Vergés has admitted that if there are indications of a fourth wave or an increase in the pressure of care, she will take the necessary decisions. These will be based exclusively, she said, on epidemiological and health data. "We will have to review the measures for 28 March, whether to extend them or not," he concluded

Awaiting the EMA opinion

While awaiting the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to make its decision on the AstraZeneca vaccine public - has to decide whether to recommend its administration or suspend it - the vaccination campaign in Catalonia using other brands has continued. As they have only been able to administer doses of Pfizer, these days only 54,000 vaccines have been administered. Most of them were to second doses.

In contrast, last week (8 to 14 March), 111,008 doses were administered, according to information published in Dadescovid.cat, and the previous (1-7 March), 123,653. "We have to keep advancing towards the immunisation of the population and we know that in a few weeks we will get more doses, such as Pfizer's, which will double, and this means that the rate of vaccination will increase," he reported

The Ministry of Health announced yesterday that if the EMA recommends resuming AstraZeneca vaccination it will immediately convene an inter-territorial health council to decide with the autonomous communities when the campaign is resumed. If the veto is lifted, Health will try to "start as soon as possible" with programming to administer AstraZeneca vaccines and expedite vaccinations. "We do not know to what extent the decision of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) will be clear enough today to be able to make decisions or if they will take a few more days," admitted the consellera of Health, who has insisted that vaccination is a key tool to overcome the pandemic.