Catalonia is experiencing the second demographic boom of the 21st century.

BarcelonaCatalonia has gained 700,000 inhabitants in the last 10 years, between 2014 and 2024. It's as if the entire Baix Llobregat region had doubled in size and spread across a few, very specific areas of the territory. According to the experts consulted, this is a boom.The largest population since the end of the economic crisis and the second major growth peak of the 21st century. Last November, the number of inhabitants surpassed 8 million, but how have they been distributed within Catalonia? And what are the factors that generate these internal and external movements of inhabitants? At ARA, we have analyzed, municipality by municipality, the evolution of the population over the last 10 years to see how towns and cities are absorbing this increase, the migratory changes, and what impact this has on the most basic facilities and services, such as schools, healthcare centers, nursing homes, mobility, and, of course, housing.

"Since 2014, there has been a recovery of the population [lost during the economic crisis] that in many municipalities has been more significant than the first wave, which occurred between 2000 and 2007," explains Andreu Domingo, PhD in sociology, deputy director of the Center for Catalan Demographic Studies. Domingo already points out that the basis for this growth is immigration, because natural growth in Catalonia is negative: there are still more deaths than births.

"Catalonia is growing at a fairly rapid pace, around 1.5% on average annually," specifies UB professor Arlinda Garcia Coll, an expert in migratory and residential movements, who explains that at 2% or more, demographers consider population growth to be "rapid." "There is a rapid growth and population renewal," Domingo agrees. "This means that residents who perceive that there has been a meteoric change are right, that is the case." She adds: "During the first boom, Spain was the second country in the world—behind the United States—in terms of the number of international migrations, and in Catalonia, on a smaller scale, the intensity was also high. Well, that second boomexceeds the first in general terms," the expert says, while pointing out that when the data "are brought down to a local level" they pose "a challenge for administrations due to the volume of demand."

But as Domingo outlines in his explanation, Catalonia has 947 municipalities, and that means 947 different cases. inequalities. Over the last two months, ARA has analyzed the data and contacted around thirty municipalities that tell their own particular story in terms of digesting this increase in residents.

If a ranking were made based on population change, the three municipalities that have grown the most over the last decade are Talamanca, in Bages (50%); Vilablareix, in Gironès (49%); and Palau de Santa Eulàlia, in Alt Empordà (38%). The first and third are very small municipalities, with around 200 inhabitants and very specific circumstances. "We noticed an increase in population during the lockdown," explains Talamanca Councilor Olga Fontvila, who explains that many of the new residents in recent years are "holidaymakers" or some residents who were weekenders and who "have settled down" upon retirement.

Vilablareix, on the other hand, has added 1,200 inhabitants in 10 years Due to its proximity to Girona and the effects of the housing crisis, one in four inhabitants of this municipality has arrived in the last five years. And, contradicting the general rule, this is not foreign immigration but internal immigration. This is a similar case to Cunit and Calafell, on the Tarragona coast. These two municipalities (ranked 9th and 12th) have grown by almost 4,000 and 7,200 inhabitants respectively (around 30%) in just 10 years, largely due to the centrifugation of residents generated by Barcelona.

On the other side of the scale, the municipalities that have seen the greatest population decline are Cava, in Alt Urgell (which has dropped from 60 to 40 inhabitants); Savallà del Comtat, in Conca de Barberà; and Cabanabona, in Noguera. All three municipalities—very small and inland Catalonia—have lost around 30% of their population.

The above examples, although very specific, are valid for providing a more general picture. The maps drawn from data by the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Idescat) are clear: over the last decade, the population has grown especially around Barcelona, in the metropolitan area and in Vallès (both western and eastern), and also in the coastal areas of Tarragona and Girona. "It makes perfect sense. The areas that provide the most jobs are growing: the metropolis and the coast. There are also some specific growth centers, such as some regional capitals, like Guissona, due to industry, and in the north of the map, some snow and mountain tourism spots are also growing in population," explains Garcia Coll.

On the other hand, there is another area, blurred on the map, that "has had it much harder," in the words of the expert: it is "inland Catalonia," which has been suffering a constant erosion of population and has revealed its emptying over the last decade (see infographics).

The reasons behind population growth

Experts argue that two reasons have driven this second wave of population growth. On the one hand, there is the arrival of new immigration, and on the other, changes in internal patterns driven, among other reasons, by rising housing costs. "In this second boomThe reasons for the first have not disappeared, but now new ones have been added: there is still a strong demand for low-skilled employment in sectors such as tourism, construction or care, and now there are also the factors that push out campaigns like Donald Trump's", argues Domingo, of the CED. This "massive arrival" worries the expert because "many immigrants do not have the right to vote and this is causing a strong imbalance between those who govern and those governed." In such massive immigration, integration depends largely on prejudice, which causes a transformation of social stratification based on origin and, for the first time, on skin color - the demographer assures -. It is a phenomenon that goes hand in hand with political parties assuming postulates of the extreme right," he concludes.

On an internal level, the movements of the native population respond above all to the desire to leave the cities, to the problems of access to housing and to retirement. in second homes and make them their residence throughout the year," says Garcia Coll, either because they retire, because they are young families who want to leave the city or because they are directly expelled by the price of housing. "It is in this context that infrastructures are of capital importance"More and more people live outside Barcelona and need public transportation to work. It's used much more intensively," the demographer emphasizes.

The significant population growth in the second metropolitan area has led many cities in the Vallès region to demand that it's time to invest more in transportation: "We have the same infrastructure as decades ago, and we miss it," laments the mayor of Granollers, Alba Barnusell, who admits that in the last five years, Barcelona has experienced a phenomenon that didn't occur before. The capital of the Vallès Oriental region is not alone in its demand for more and better transportation. "It turns out that Barcelona hasn't grown in population for practically decades, and we haven't stopped building metro lines, and yet, in the Vallès and Maresme regions, which have grown dramatically, no mobility infrastructure is being built," laments Jordi Puigne, the Deputy Mayor for Institutional Relations of Sant Cugat del Vallès.

Both these cities, as well as the co-capitals of Vallès Occidental, Sabadell and Terrassa, admit when questioned by ARA that the "disconnection" that still persists between the Vallès and also with the Baix Llobregat region in terms of public transport is incomprehensible. They demand, as a first urgent solution, an improvement of the R8 commuter line because it is the one that "should provide this service," criticizes Puigneró.

Social and urban changes

The task of absorbing the entire new population arriving in certain municipalities or regions is not easy and affects basic pillars of the welfare state. Hospitalet de Llobregat, which is facing many internal movements derived from housing prices, knows this well. The second most populous city in all of Catalonia (it has grown by 29,000 people, 11%, in 10 years, to over 282,200 inhabitants) concentrates half of its population in just two square kilometers. These are the neighborhoods closest to the Catalan capital, "where the non-EU foreign population predominates, a more informal housing market, and the most vulnerable families," according to municipal sources. "There are the same dynamics as in Besòs: the expulsion of residents from Barcelona, resulting in overcrowded apartments, substandard housing, precarious jobs, and a lot of mobility," explains the city council, which emphasizes that this is forcibly forcing the disappearance of traditional commerce and neighborhoods despite all attempts and plans.

In fact, the entire Barcelona metropolitan area is experiencing similar effects. When consulted by this newspaper, many municipalities report severe pressure on social services, which are now receiving much greater demand, mainly linked to difficulties in accessing housing, and also on health centers, which serve more people with more diverse problems. "Much more work is being done, and city councils are asking for more resources, but things [like a new primary care center or hospital] aren't done overnight: with such rapid and strong growth, there isn't much room to react," argues Garcia Coll. "It's tough and difficult to absorb," summarizes a source from a municipality in the metropolitan area.

In this regard, the Socialist mayor of Granollers admits that the growth of the last decade has been poorly planned and accompanied. Since Idescat's own projections indicate that the ceiling has not been reached, she warns: "We have service challenges that do not depend on the municipality, but on higher planning, and we all need to sit down at a table with the Catalan government and address them." Puigneró confirms that local councils cannot address the problems arising from demographic pressure in many sectors, from housing, transportation, and healthcare, and urges the Catalan government and the Spanish government to take this on. The deputy mayor of Junts de Sant Cugat advocates "regulating migratory flows to be able to receive and accommodate migrants properly." "We must focus on how many people we can receive and try to regulate this, and address this debate without any racist attitudes," Puigneró emphasizes.

Regarding the second crown, Puigneró advocates for a stronger alliance between the mayors of the Sant Cugat-Rubí-Cerdanyola-Castellbisbal axis to reclaim "the southern Vallès" and accelerate crucial pending projects, such as the new hospital to help relieve congestion in Terra.

The housing crisis acts as a kind of shock wave and encourages the arrival of new residents, both local and foreign, looking for more affordable prices. Terrassa, the third most populated city in the country, registered 13,000 new registrations last year: around 6,000 came from other municipalities in the metropolitan area (from cities like Sant Cugat and Sabadell), largely in search of "cheaper apartments," explains the head of the Research Service and Xavier de Observatori. Otherwise, a large part of the population was foreign, arriving directly in the municipality, as well as from other parts of the country, although to a much lesser extent.

With more than 233,000 inhabitants (up 6% in ten years), Terrassa is a clear example of how demographics can change urban planning. Its municipal area still has room to grow, so it expects to reach 250,000 inhabitants and become what is considered a "large city" in the next decade. Its situation differs from that of the co-capital, Sabadell, where residential land is "quite depleted," explains the first deputy mayor, Eloi Cortés. Sacrificing industrial land for redevelopment is not, for the moment, part of the city's plans, which is committed to a strategy of attracting businesses and economic activity by not being a "commuter city" and by offering its residents the possibility of finding work close to home.

In both cases, the continued growth of recent years, however, is largely explained by a good connection with Barcelona, mainly by the so-called Vallés metro, operated by the Catalan regional government. These lines, with their high frequency, have boosted the growth of other towns they serve, such as Rubí (up 9.6%) and Sant Cugat del Vallès, with a dramatic 13% increase that now places it close to 99,000 inhabitants. In the case of this city, one of those with the highest disposable household income in Catalonia, its expansion has more to do with attracting Barcelona residents and also foreigners (in this case from the EU or those with high incomes), who are attracted not by price but by good living conditions outside a large city, but also by good connections to the municipalities of Barcelona.

Sant Cugat has seen the emergence of new neighborhoods in the last decade and is approaching its peak population, just over 100,000, according to Puigneró. The reason is a municipal decision that, for decades and regardless of political affiliation, has opted to limit potential growth by half and to opt for a "more spongy city model, with low-rise buildings and green areas," in contrast to neighboring municipalities such as Cerdanyola or Rubí, explains the current deputy mayor, who was vice president of the Catalan government.

Regarding the rising price of housing (Sant Cugat is one of the most expensive municipalities in Spain to buy a home), Puigneró admits that the city is receiving people displaced from Barcelona, but that it is also expelling people, a situation that, he emphasizes, is also true of all the surrounding municipalities: "Everyone is emanating." As a result of this chain, while the average rent in Sant Cugat exceeds 1,400 euros, in Terrassa the increase of more than 20% last year has brought it close to 1,200 euros, according to data from the City Observatory. For Puigneró, the meteoric population growth explains the current situation: "So many people have come to live in Catalonia that there isn't enough housing, and that drives up the price of housing, regardless of the category," notes Puigneró.

The impact on classrooms

Another of the obvious effects of this population increase is experienced in the classrooms, with the live registration, that is, the number of student movements (around 9,000 a month) when the school year has already begun. "Every year we start the school year in September with 27 students in the classroom, and two weeks later, we already have 32 or 33," Víctor García, a teacher at the Institut Pedraforca in the Florida neighborhood of Hospitalet de Llobregat, explains to ARA. "If it's happening so much, and for so long, perhaps it could have been better planned, right?" reflects Anna Pascual, a teacher at the Institut Enric Borràs in Badalona. "We're resigned; we've gotten used to taking it this way, but it's obviously not ideal," she concludes. For the moment, the ratios assume the arrivals. In Hospitalet, for example, new schools are already being planned, but "so far they haven't arrived in time." In the metropolitan area, another problem arises: the lack of space for further construction: "It's difficult to find a plot of land, public or private, that meets the requirements of the Education Department," complains some local authorities.

"Such rapid growth throws off your forecasts," summarizes Arlinda Garcia Coll of the UB. "We have to rethink many plans; what we did in 2005 isn't valid now," warns Andreu Domingo of the CED. Experts, local authorities, and professionals in the sectors that have been most impacted by this new boomDemographic experts emphasize that "we must prepare." The data is there, they point out; now it's time for policies to take them into account in order to design the Catalonia of the future and make it worthy of all its citizens.