Breast cancer deaths will increase by 68% by 2050
Women in France are at higher risk of getting sick, but in Africa survival is lower
BarcelonaBy 2050, breast cancer cases will increase by 38% and patient mortality will rise by 68%, according to a projection by the International Agency for Research on Cancer – an organization that depends on the World Health Organization (WHO) – published this Monday in the journal Nature Medicine. This means that by mid-century, the agency estimates that there will be 3.2 million new cases of breast cancer detected and another 1.1 million associated deaths.
Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer among women worldwide and the second most common in both sexes, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer warns that the incidence will continue to rise if prevention, detection and treatment measures are not intensified. "Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer in the world and one dies from the disease. And these statistics are getting worse," warns Joanne Kim, co-author of the report.
The study warns that this increase in cases will not be symmetrical throughout the world: diagnoses will accelerate in practically all countries, but the reduction in survival will be most severe in low-income countries, since access to early detection, treatment and care remains " Globally, 2.3 million cases and 670,000 deaths from breast cancer were detected in 2022, and only 29 countries – all of them considered high-income – were able to bend the death curve.
For example, the report notes that the risk of being diagnosed with breast cancer is higher in France (one in nine women) and the United States (one in ten) but that the risk of dying is higher in Africa (one in 47). In fact, in high-income countries 83% of those diagnosed survive, but in low-income countries survival is reduced to less than half.
Spain has the lowest cumulative risk of dying from breast cancer at age 75. "The increase in incidence in all age groups is accompanied by a significant decrease in the risk of dying," explains the scientific coordinator of the Cancer Strategy of the National Health System and director of the Catalan Oncology Plan, Josep Maria Borràs, in statements to SMC.
Annual reduction of 2.5%
Although mortality rates have decreased in 30 countries over the past decade, only seven countries have achieved the goal of reducing deaths from the disease by 2.5% each year, as set out in the WHO's global initiative against breast cancer. These are Malta, Denmark, Belgium, Switzerland, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Slovenia. Seven more – Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Australia, the United Kingdom and New Zealand – are getting close. "To properly assess this decline, not only the annual decline should be taken into account but also the starting point: it is easier to go down from high mortality figures than from lower figures," says Borràs.
By region, breast cancer incidence rates were highest in Australia and New Zealand (100 cases per 100,000 women), followed by North America and northern Europe. The lowest were observed in central-southern Asia (27). According to the report, this pattern is associated with higher alcohol intake or lower levels of physical activity in more developed countries.
