The epicenter of the swine fever outbreak was already classified as a maximum risk area.

BarcelonaAfter the Minister of Agriculture, Òscar Ordeig, has ruled out the possibility that the African swine fever (ASF) virus came from the laboratory of the IRTA-CReSA Animal Health Research Center, According to data gathered by the ongoing audit to determine its origin, other hypotheses are gaining traction. These range from the theory that the outbreak was intentional to the "sandwich theory." In fact, it was already known that the area where the first dead wild boar appeared, and where up to 26 other infected animals have been confirmed, was one of the three areas in all of Spain with the highest risk of African swine fever (ASF) entering the country. This was identified in a document prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture, which ARA has accessed. The report drew a map of the dangers of introducing and spreading the pathogen and specifically designated that area of Bellaterra as a "priority action area" to try to prevent the disease from reaching Spanish territory. The other two high-risk areas are on the A-6 highway, very close to Madrid, where another level 3 biosafety laboratory, Visavet, is located, and in the outskirts of Málaga.

This hazard map, included in the national wild boar population management plan to prevent African swine fever (ASF), is obtained by cross-referencing wild boar density, high-occupancy roads such as highways and motorways with international traffic, and also, importantly, rest areas along these roads. Previous outbreaks of ASF in EU countries occurred precisely due to the arrival of contaminated pork products—the "mortadella sandwich" theory, which has been the subject of so much ridicule—consumed by truck drivers who then discarded the remains in these areas. Wild boars then ingested these remains and became contaminated. "For me, with the information we have so far, the most plausible explanation is that it was contaminated food scraps," José Ángel Barasona, a Ramón y Cajal researcher at the Health Surveillance Center (Visavet) of the Complutense University of Madrid, told ARA.

It's worth remembering that the Georgia 07 strain, the first to enter Europe from the African continent, arrived by plane in 1957 aboard pork products. Half a century later, during the disease's second appearance on the European continent, the virus also arrived in contaminated food in the Caucasus. The third recorded instance was its arrival in Sardinia and northern Italy. "Most of the time the virus has jumped long distances, thousands of kilometers, it has been through infected food," Barasona points out. Another important factor considered in the ministry document for estimating the risk of contact between wild boar and domestic pigs is the density of pig farms, their population density, and whether or not they are well-insulated with fences. And precisely in the Barcelona metropolitan area, there is a high density of these farms.

Eastern European countries, a black box

He statement from the Ministry of Agriculture dated December 5 The claim that the virus causing the outbreak in the province of Barcelona was very similar to genetic group 1, which circulated in Georgia in 2007, focused suspicion on the Catalan research center IRTA-CReSA. This is because the Georgia 2007 virus strain is a reference virus often used in laboratories. However, the virus that has caused the current outbreak in Bellaterra is similar, but not identical. In fact, European authorities reported that the strain found in the first deceased wild boar had never been described in the EU, either in the wild or in any laboratory. Hence, they gave it a new name: 29. The African swine fever (ASF) expert points out that "it is unknown which strains of the virus are circulating in Eastern Europe, in countries like Georgia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, or Russia." He emphasizes: "We only know and have evidence of what is happening in Western Europe." This opens the door to the possibility that strain 29 may have originated in one of those territories.

While awaiting the results of the ongoing audits, which sources close to the biosecurity expert committee appointed by the Ministry of Agriculture assure ARA could be released in the coming days, in addition to the so-called "sandwich hypothesis," other possibilities remain. For example, that the virus that has infected the wild boars of Bellaterra mutated from another known strain, that it was an intentional biological escape or sabotage, or that the virus came from another laboratory or company.