For the third consecutive year, reality has exceeded forecasts for the Spanish economy. On average, 25 research institutions and departments calculated that Spain's gross domestic product (GDP) would increase by around 2.1%, while it ultimately grew by 2.8%, a difference of seven-tenths of a percentage point. Ceprede-UAM (Center for Economic Forecasting-Autonomous University of Madrid) and CEEM-URJC (Center for Economic Studies of Madrid-King Juan Carlos University) came closest to the final result, with a forecast of 2.5%, a deviation of three-tenths of a percentage point from the actual growth.

Optimism. This is the mood of the business leaders participating in the 36th Business Meeting in the Pyrenees. According to the 2025 Economic Barometer, a survey of attendees to capture business perceptions of the economy and its future, 85.71% of participants have good revenue prospects compared to last year; furthermore, 55.33% of attendees anticipate profit growth compared to 2024. In fact, more than half, 68.52%, plan to create jobs in the next six months.

US President Donald Trump's trade policy is already having a direct impact on the global economy. "The global outlook is deteriorating further," the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned in its semi-annual report on Tuesday.think tankof the most advanced economies). In a "difficult and uncertain" context due to the US tariff war, the Paris-based organization has slightly revised down Spanish GDP growth for this year to 2.4%, two-tenths less than expected at the beginning of the year and almost a point less than last year's growth (3.2%).