"The conflict in the Middle East will test the resilience of the global economy." No beating around the bush. The new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revises its growth forecasts taking into account the impact of the war initiated in Iran.

Catalonia's economy grew by 2.7% last year, one-tenth of a percentage point less than the Spanish average, but two-tenths of a point above the 2.5% forecast by the Catalan government last October, according to data from the Catalan Institute of Statistics (Idescat). This growth, largely driven by construction in the fourth quarter, exceeds expectations, but represents a significant slowdown compared to the 3.6% projected for 2024, a trend expected to continue in 2026 with a projected growth of 2.1%, according to the Catalan government's estimates. In any case, last year's growth remains well above the European Union (EU) average of 1.6%, and that of the main EU countries such as Germany (0.3%), France (0.9%), and Italy (0.7%), according to Eurostat data.

The growth of the Catalan economy rests on two fundamental pillars: household consumption and, especially, investment. Gross domestic product (GDP) registered a 2.4% year-on-year increase in the third quarter, following a 0.8% rise compared to the April-June period, according to the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Idescat). The increase in GDP "is mainly explained by the evolution of domestic demand, with growth of 3.7%, primarily due to the increase in gross fixed capital formation –investment– (6.9%) and household consumption (3.5%)," the institute explains. which confirms the estimate made in early November.

The pandemic had a direct impact on tourism, which reduced its activity to zero, but after the crisis, it grew to levels never seen before in Spain. For years, companies in the sector, such as hotels and airlines, have been contributing increasingly to the state's GDP. Although the trend continues, the tailwind appears to be weakening, with the new reality in the United States as the main threat.

Slightly lower growth. The Ministry of Economy forecasts that Catalonia's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 2.6% this year, one-tenth less than its estimate last October, but well above the rate of growth across the European Union (EU). These forecasts, which assume a slowdown of one percentage point compared to 2024, when the increase was 3.6% and GDP exceeded €300 billion for the first time, are included in the macroeconomic scenario for Catalonia 2025-2026, published this Thursday. For next year, the forecast is 2% and it is estimated that around 100,000 jobs will be created in the two years and that the unemployment rate will fall from 8.9% of the working population in 2024 to 8.5% this year, and 8.4% next year.

In the first three months of Donald Trump's administrationThe US economy has already begun to show signs of weakness.Official data indicate that in the first quarter of 2025, GDP contracted by 0.3% year-on-year, a negative growth not seen since the pandemic. The reasons are diverse, but analysts agree that Trump's erratic policies, especially the tariff war, are beginning to impact not only corporate results but also consumption patterns. And this data does not yet reflect the effect of the so-called "liberation day," which fell on April 2 and caused a stock market earthquake of such magnitude that it forced the US president to reverse course and declare a 90-day truce on the tariffs he wanted to impose on the entire world.

Almost two months after publishing its macroeconomic forecasts for the next 3 years (2022, 2023 and 2024), the Bank of Spain (BdE) announced that it would revise them downwards. The duration of the war in Ukraine, inflationary pressure and, in particular, the increase in core inflation –the increase in prices without taking into account energy and food– as well as a growth of the economy in the first quarter which was more timid than expected, have led the supervisory body to forecast an increase in GDP of 4.1% in 2022 (0.4 percentage points less than in April, when it forecast growth of 4.5%). Thus, the BdE's projection is in line with that of the OECD (4.1%) and the European Commission (4%) and is slightly more pessimistic than the Spanish government's and the State's Audit Office's (4.3%).