An analysis like this fundamentally has one purpose, which is to help us all understand what kind of country we live in, or what kind of world we live in, and there is news today that helps a lot with that.For example: early this morning Donald Trump promised that if the Republican Party maintains the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate in the November 3rd elections, he will pay “every adult American a dividend” of 5,000 dollars. Donald Trump: “If the Republicans win the United States House of Representatives and the Senate, both of them, thanks to our enormous strength and our economic success, I will pay a dividend of 5,000 dollars to every adult citizen of the United States of America”.He is so worried about the results that he already wants to buy the vote. And he wraps it up in the usual triumphalist rhetoric, assuring that we are doing so well, and speaking like a businessman who manages a company and not a country, and promising a dividend. It is so low that it is not worth dwelling on. And it is a good thing he is promising money and not threatening deportations if they do not vote for him, but it will all come. It is not that they have no shame, it is that they have a plan: to perpetuate themselves in power, make money and prevent being prosecuted, if necessary, by ending democracyAnother one: Sánchez has kept his promise to make public all the reports he received regarding the massive entry into Ceuta, with the intention of demonstrating that nobody saw it coming. Well, the warnings portray the Spanish government, since the CNI warned of calls for an assault on the fence and by sea, but without anticipating the magnitude. If the papers portray Sánchez, why publish them? Because they cling to a part of the truth: they did not receive any report. They received WhatsApps and calls. But there were indeed warnings. No matter how you look at it, the Spanish government's foresight was zero, and the management was slow, and therefore bad. And what does Sánchez offer? Catchy phrases for the enjoyment of TikTok, Instagram or X. Like this one:Pedro Sánchez: “Regarding the insults, my lord, you have called me an autocrat, a dictator, they even call me a dog. They call me a dog, yes, yes, they call me a dog. Look, I will tell you one thing, Mr. Abascal: unlike you, I may be a dog, but I have no master”.It has no owner, but dialectical creativity is not enough when there is a crisis like the one Morocco has created for Ceuta. All of this is a theater that does not hold up.Salvador Illa should take note of this. Yesterday Josep Lluís Trapero resigned, his great signing for the general direction of the Police, for the reasons we explained: Trapero is very much Trapero and he did not get along with Minister Parlon. And yesterday it became clear that the straw that broke the camel's back was the appointment of Sílvia Catà as the new head of the Mossos, to the point that Trapero resigned on the day the new head of the force was to be presented, historic news because she is the first woman who will lead the police. Anyway, these things happen in politics, but it has been another dent (and quite a visible one) in the bodywork of the Illa government. He has had to replace five officials in one month. It has just been two years since he arrived at the presidency, he is halfway through his term, he has a budget for next year, but he has problems in Education, Health, the Interior, with mobility, and the discourse that a Government was coming that would actually know how to manage (unlike the “chaos” with the pro-independence Governments) no longer holds up. This Government shows signs today of difficulty in solving problems, and the president should think that they do not go away with more or less fortunate phrases. And so we arrive at a new Diada, at a new National Day. Tomorrow will mark 50 years since the first one after the Francoist dictatorship. The one in 1976 was a tolerated Diada, because the civil governor of the time prohibited the celebration in Barcelona. It was a brave Diada, in which it was possible to use the term “National Day” without fear, and, above all, it brought everyone together. That unity is the message today. Today there is less courage, more calculation, more wounds from the Procés and an extreme right with an exclusionary vision of Catalan identity. What has happened to the Diada is what has happened to the world: too much fear and too little hope.Good morning.

Among the 40 documents that the Moncloa declassified on Tuesday is a CNI report on irregular immigration to Spain from July 27 that was shared both with the Spanish government delegation in Ceuta and with all competent ministries, which warns of two issues: it states, on the one hand, that the Supreme Court ruling rejecting hot returns by sea could have a "very significant" impact on irregular entries into Ceuta, although—mind you—it says it trusts that Morocco would contain the migratory pressure, and, on the other hand, that the extraordinary regularization of migrants could be a "risk" for Spain because it "will increase migratory pressure directly and indirectly".

The declassification and publication of reports from intelligence services and security forces regarding the Ceuta crisis have not improved the Spanish government's position; quite the contrary. The documents show that the CNI issued warnings, to both Moroccan and Spanish authorities, that a mass call was being made on social networks to enter Ceuta, taking advantage of the Throne Day holiday. Specifically, the CNI alerted that there were "especially active" profiles on WhatsApp and Facebook calling for a mass entry, with a potential reach of 180,000 people.

On the morning of July 30, the Spanish army was already speaking of a "migratory chaos" at the border between Morocco and Ceuta, with the State's security forces and bodies "saturated" in the face of the arrival of thousands of people. But the trickle of migrant arrivals in Ceuta from the Alawite country, mostly swimming, had been a constant throughout the month of July, far exceeding the figures from the previous year.

The European Commission has announced that it will send Spain 114.7 million euros in emergency assistance to help manage the situation in Ceuta, after the mass entry of immigrants at the end of July. Brussels has also coordinated the deployment of key agencies such as Frontex, Europol, and the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) in the two autonomous cities, Ceuta and Melilla.

There were indeed warnings: at the very least, the CNI alerted both Morocco and the Spanish government about mass calls on social media to enter Ceuta. It did so with an informative note to the Moroccan intelligence services the day before the crisis and also via WhatsApp to the executive's delegation in Ceuta and to commanders of the Civil Guard. Reports from security forces prior to the crisis also warned of a possible increase in irregular entries following the Supreme Court ruling of July 8th, which rejected hot returns by sea hot returns by sea. This is what can be gathered from the reports and communications that the Council of Ministers agreed to declassify this Tuesday and which it has published through the Moncloa website. Warnings that, according to the Spanish government, were not sufficient to anticipate the mass entry of migrants.

As promised last week by the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, the council of ministers has declassified this Tuesday the reports related to the Ceuta crisis. That is to say, all the documents that were prepared before July 30th regarding the situation in the autonomous city to verify whether or not the crisis situation could have been anticipated by the Spanish executive. "We are fulfilling our commitment to transparency," said the executive spokesperson, Elma Saiz, although it is expected that it will not be until tomorrow, Wednesday, that the media and the public will be able to access the papers. It is also unclear what the scope of the publication will be, although sources from the Moncloa assure that it will include all reports and communications between ministries that took place from July 1st to August 1st. In any case, the Defense department had raised objections regarding the possible impact on other intelligence services. In fact, this Monday, in the midst of the Ceuta crisis, King Felipe VI met with Minister Margarita Robles and the top brass of the Defense department – the Chief of the Defense Staff, the General Commander of Ceuta, and the operational commanders – with the aim of "examining the situation from the point of view of defense".

The National Court judge María Tardón has opened a criminal case to investigate the massive entry of immigrants into Ceuta on July 30 as a "serious attack on the territorial integrity of Spain". Among the crimes the judge wants to investigate are those that "compromise the peace or independence of the State", which are those from 589 to 597. "It is deduced that the crime has the intentionality of attacking the State", adds the judge, who recalls that Pedro Sánchez presented the events as a "violation of the territorial integrity of Spain". And she also recalls that a "massive migratory flow" is "one of the characteristic methods of hybrid warfare". Thus, since this Monday there is a Spanish court –and not just any court– investigating whether Morocco launched a hybrid warfare operation against Spain last July 30.

The National Court has decided to open a criminal case to investigate the massive entry of migrants into Ceuta at the end of July. After the endorsement of the Public Prosecutor's Office and receiving the reports it commissioned from the Spanish police and the Civil Guard, Judge María Tardón considers that she is competent to analyze events that she believes could be framed within three crimes: one that compromises the peace or independence of the State, against the rights of foreign citizens –in connection with a crime of reckless homicide for the 83 bodies that were found in Spanish waters– and of criminal organization. “We are facing criminal conduct allegedly committed abroad that has seriously attacked the territorial integrity of Spain,” she maintains. “It is deduced that the crime has an intentionality to attack the State,” adds the judge, who recalls that Pedro Sánchez presented the events as a “violation of the territorial integrity of Spain”. Furthermore, she points out that the events were promoted by a “plurality of persons not yet identified” and justifies that a “massive migratory flow” is “one of the characteristic methods” of hybrid warfare.

The entire PP leadership and the vast majority of the barons of the party had an appointment in Madrid this Monday: an informative breakfast by Juan Jesús Vivas at the Nueva Economía Fórum. The president of Ceuta traveled to the Spanish capital 39 days after the massive entry of migrants into the autonomous city that still marks the day-to-day of political news, and in the midst of multiplying political tension and crossed reproaches with the Spanish government. The person in charge of introducing him was Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who praised him for having “embodied like no one else the dignity of the State” and for acting as an “ideal president” to defend Ceuta in “times of unrest”. “You have a place in the hearts of millions of Spaniards”, he said.

The massive entry of immigrants into Ceuta on July 30 has triggered an unprecedented crisis in the city itself, but also in Spain and Europe. ARA journalists Albert Diumenjó and Núria Rius Montaner have produced numerous reports on this crisis from Ceuta. In this conversation, they explain what they have seen and what has surprised them. They were accompanied by the newspaper's Head of International, Francesc Millan, who provided a geopolitical perspective. The conversation was coordinated by deputy director Carla Turró.

After 35 days in Ceuta, Aiman is returning to Morocco. He crossed the border shortly before the massive entry of thousands of people in late July with the hope of achieving a better life, but he has not endured the blockade situation experienced in the city. He says he is exhausted after having spent a month sleeping on the street and this Thursday, finally, he decided to make the journey back. Like the majority of immigrants who remain trapped in the city, he is dirty, wears flip-flops, and carries a small bag where he keeps everything he owns. Although he tried, he did not manage to enter any of the temporary accommodation resources provided by the State, saturated by the high demand of people who are still in the city, and he has fed himself mainly on the food distributed by social organizations. On some occasions, he has even taken food from the trash.

The facts: Ceuta has a population of a little less than 90,000 inhabitants. Between 1995 and 2025, 85,000 people have arrived there irregularly. It has a population density of 4,500 inhab./km². An area of almost 20 km². And a GDP/capita of €23,000 (Spain, €34,190; Morocco, €4,600). The population with Moroccan nationality in Ceuta is 12%. The Muslim population, 45%. (In 1970 they were 10%.) The proportion of income coming from the General State Administration is 47%.Based on this reality and evolution, the future situation is foreseeable. 50% of the income is public. Little wealth is generated from private activity. The income is 68% of the Spanish one and five times the Moroccan one, which ensures intense irregular immigration destined for Ceuta or in transit to the EU.Spain's military and economic superiority over Morocco is indisputable, but the weapon of demography is an advantage for Morocco. The population versus the army: the Green March 50 years ago and the invasion of Ceuta a few weeks ago. Human life does not have, in Morocco, the same importance as in Europe.It is hard to understand why, in the long term, it is necessary to maintain Ceuta as a Spanish enclave in Morocco (except for the historical reason and the will to protect the population). There is no economic motivation. Spain, in case of conflict –and despite its military and economic superiority– would have two problems: 1) Morocco's demographic weapon (the population is used for political ends despite the risk it may pose to them). 2) An armed conflict would produce a rift in Spanish society that would be difficult to resolve (the right would probably be in favor and the left, probably, against). Morocco knows this and exploits it. Any alternative that is proposed in the short term must establish the Spanish nature of Ceuta. We cannot get out of one problem and enter another.

The illusion of a certain order based on democratic expansion in the world ended, most likely, on September 11, 2001. Perhaps it was only an illusion that justified the hyper-leadership of the United States, but the fact is that the instructions for use of international relations began to be torn apart until reaching the chaos of today.

The migration crisis in Ceuta represents yet another serious complication for a weary government, now without permanent allies, but led by a president determined to continue and finish the legislative term. The hypothesis of a miracle that would allow the socialists to rebuild alliances and projects for a new stage in power next year seems increasingly implausible. Thursday's debate in Congress highlighted the solitude of Pedro Sánchez, criticized by all the parliamentary forces. Yet once again he managed to remain standing, without falling exhausted onto the canvas. Feijóo tries to strike the socialist leader with ever more force and knock him down for good. There is no longer any kind of respect or consideration between the two. And despite this, the feeling always remains in the air that the president of the PP will have to keep waiting, because his blows—which would be quite forceful against other opponents—do not have much effect on Sánchez, who shows no signs of looking for any other way out than to stake everything on one card whenever he decides to call the next general elections.

The Spanish government has led the opposition to the creation of extraterritorial deportation centers, that is, centers located outside the European Union where asylum seekers would be forcibly moved while their application is processed, and those irregular immigrants subject to an expulsion order while its execution is resolved. As is known, it had been Giorgia Meloni's government that had led the idea, and it already has two centers in Albania with a capacity for 3,000 people. Although the Commission had expressed reservations, they are part of the European border management policy following the approval, by the Parliament, of the European Pact on Migration and Asylum.As is known, the centers in Albania are not quite working because the Italian justice system has seen many problems with them. Paradoxically, Spain is building the first fully operational European extraterritorial deportation center. In Ceuta.On the one hand, Sánchez is under enormous pressure not to transfer any of the thousands of people who entered irregularly and do not want to return to Morocco to the Peninsula. This pressure comes not only from opposition parties, but also from many European chancelleries, which are very uncomfortable with the recent mass regularization of immigrants in Spain. He also knows that Spanish public opinion would view it very unfavorably. He has tested the possibility of transferring a particularly sensitive group—unaccompanied minor girls—and doing so to private centers at the State's expense, but has not had much success. On the other hand, for a significant part of those who took part in the entry to end up managing to reach the Peninsula would constitute a suicidal precedent. The official policy is, therefore, that all those who entered illegally will be expelled except for those who have the right to asylum and unaccompanied minors who cannot be returned to Morocco with sufficient guarantees. The expulsions, however, will be very slow, as Minister Torres has been quick to warn.Meanwhile, administrations are providing migrants with centers where they can sleep, shower, and receive medical care and food. The rest of the time, these thousands of people, mostly young men, wander around with not much to do in a city of 80,000 inhabitants with very little work to offer them. It would take a miracle for this state of affairs not to lead to conflicts, and, in fact, these have begun very quickly. The Spanish authorities need time to issue expulsion orders with the guarantees required by law, but, once they have done so, the Moroccan government will not make their execution easy. Why should it do so if its strategic interest is to destabilize Ceuta and Melilla?

The Spanish government has announced that it is assuming control of the port of Ceuta for the "humanitarian care" of migrants in tents and other spaces, as provided for in a resolution by the Ministry of Transport and Sustainable Mobility.

The fight against hunger is part of the daily life of many people in Ceuta. Although many of the immigrants who crossed the border illegally at the end of July have decided to return to Morocco and many others are already in temporary accommodation resources set up by the State, there are hundreds who are still trying to make a living as best they can in the city. They queue in front of supermarkets, restaurants, and bars in the hope that someone will give them something to fill their stomachs, they ask for money, fish, or even take food from the trash. At El Trampolín beach, a couple of boys have improvised a grocery store; they buy food and then resell it at the settlement. "Now we work for Mercadona," joke Ayoub and Imad, who show the purchase receipt to prove that they have not stolen anything. There are so many mouths to feed, however, that the help of neighbors and the solutions they come up with are not enough, and it is the social entities that are ensuring that these people can eat every day, weeks after their arrival in the city.

At the border that a month ago leaked from all sides with the massive entry of more than 80,000 people, normality now reigns, beyond the presence of some of the immigrants who crossed it illegally, who wait to see if someone gives them food or money. The traffic at this point between Ceuta and Morocco –the El Tarajal crossing– is constant; thousands of people cross it every day, whether to go to work, visit relatives, or go sightseeing.