The Andalusian elections confirm that the Spanish right is heading towards living within what Moreno Bonilla and Feijóo had insisted throughout the campaign they wanted to avoid: the mess (in the original version, el lío, a terminology inherited from Rajoy). The mess is having to govern with Vox, and that is exactly what the Andalusian PP will have to do in this new legislature, now that they have lost their absolute majority. In regional negotiations with the People's Party, Vox acts as a party that does not know the meaning of expressions like institutional loyalty or proportionality . Apparently, they don't even understand what negotiating exactly means: for Vox, there is only the possibility of imposing their slogans and ideological obsessions, or breaking the game. They are not government partners: they tutelage governments. Lately, Vox's slogan is called national priority, which means institutionalizing racism, supremacism, and xenophobia, and making them transversal elements in government action. After that, there follows a list of hatreds (feminism, environmentalism, etc.) at the top of which is the Catalan language and anything that Spanish far-right nationalism identifies as "catalan". This is "the mess" that Moreno Bonilla will have to face, who does not emerge exactly unscathed (5 fewer seats and loss of the absolute majority) from the scandal of breast cancer screenings, despite the fact that there were more than enough reasons for the wear and tear to be more pronounced.For its part, the question that the Andalusian PSOE can ask itself is whether it has already hit rock bottom and if it still has sheets to lose in future electoral washes. In hindsight, it is easy to say, but the truth is that the socialists could hardly have chosen a worse candidate than María Jesús Montero, a woman who is Andalusian by birth but who is little or nothing so in practice, much more linked to Madrid, to Pedro Sánchez and to the party apparatus than to Andalusian political discussion, which is intense, dense, and vibrant. The old tactic of sending politicians who have "succeeded" in Madrid as ministers to the "provinces" (Pilar Alegría to Aragon, María Jesús Montero to Andalusia), which has been used so many times by both the PP and the PSOE, interchangeably, is not yielding results for Pedro Sánchez.The significant rise of the sovereignist left Endavant Andalusia, led by José Ignacio García, compared to the blockage suffered by the Sumar, Podem, and Esquerra Unida coalition, Per Andalusia, with Antonio Maíllo as candidate, confirms that "what matters to people" is also ideological, and that sovereignism makes sense (and has voters) when it is presented as a form of democratic improvement, linked to the demands for the rights and freedoms of individuals, both individually and collectively. The fact that Endavant Andalusia has received more votes than Vox in constituencies like Cádiz or Seville is also relevant. By blocs, the right-wing parties total 68 seats, compared to 41 for the left-wing parties. The mess that we already know in the Balearic Islands or in the Valencian Country is beginning in Andalusia.

Juanma Moreno Bonilla entered to applause at the PP's state headquarters the day after the Andalusian elections. Despite the bittersweet taste of his victory, this Monday among the popular ranks the "spectacular" result obtained by the popular candidate is claimed. In statements to the media at the entrance of the party's state board of directors, Moreno Bonilla has argued that, no matter how much he has fallen two deputies short of an absolute majority, the 53 seats are a "sufficiently forceful" result to leave Vox out of his future regional executive. "It is a very good result that gives us room to maneuver to govern alone," he stated. For now, Vox has not set this price, as it did in Extremadura and Aragon, awaiting the start of negotiations. Moreno explained that he has not yet had contact with Santiago Abascal's party.

Night of infarction in Andalusia, bittersweet outcome for the PP and a blow for the PSOE. Juanma Moreno Bonilla and Alberto Núñez Feijóo were very happy seeing that the polls predicted that the popular party could repeat the absolute majority they achieved four years ago, but the ballot boxes have issued another verdict: the PP has lost five deputies compared to 2022, has fallen two seats short of an absolute majority, and will once again need Vox's approval to govern. Seven months ago, the PP inaugurated the regional electoral cycle that now comes to an end with the unwavering goal of freeing itself from Vox, but it has ended up being even more of a hostage to the far-right. To the point that even the most moderate "baron" of the popular party – who had a free hand – now finds himself forced to negotiate with Santiago Abascal if he does not want to repeat the elections. In parallel, on Ferraz street it has been an even more painful night: the PSOE has achieved its worst result in history and is nineteen percentage points behind the popular party. The only relief that gives some oxygen to the socialists is that the future negotiation between the PP and Vox will once again highlight the discomforts and contradictions of the popular party.

A man from Cordoba, Niceto Alcalá-Zamora, president of the Spanish Republic (1931-36), is the author of one of the phrases that have best defined the dual nature of Catalanism. Don Niceto told Francesc Cambó, in the Cortes, that “you cannot be at the same time the Bolívar of Catalonia and the Bismarck of Spain”. A phrase that could also have been applied to Lluís Companys, Miquel Roca or Gabriel Rufián. Being a Catalanist in Madrid implies a contradiction difficult to manage. On the other hand, Andalusianism is an equally intense sentiment but one that combines with Spanishness as well as chamomile and soda water at the Feria de Abril. Because Andalusia (which according to its Statute of Autonomy is a nationality) has an irrefutable, even exuberant, identity, but it is Castilian in origin, and has contributed as much as Castile to the definition of what is Spanish.

Andalusia is celebrating its thirteenth regional elections this Sunday, a series that began in 1982 and in which a solid socialist hegemony was maintained until Juanma Moreno Bonilla acceded to the Junta in 2018 hand in hand with Ciudadanos and Vox. In this last decade, Moreno Bonilla has built his own profile, different from the state PP, and especially different from the Madrid PP, based on moderation, good manners, and undisguised Andalusianism. In reality, it is a formula that recalls Pujol's Convergència, albeit without questioning the Spanish national project, and which is also practiced, for example, by the Galician PP and, to a lesser extent, the Balearic PP.

“My male friends lean to the far right, but women remain sensible”. This is what Andalusian poet Aurora Luque told the newspaper El País}, in the run-up to the Andalusian elections. Every election —and especially regional ones, where the relationship with the candidates is more direct— has its peculiarities. The current Andalusian president, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, came to the Junta in 2019, after 40 years of socialist hegemony. With a kind and unassertive style —far from the aggressive, fixed-agenda politics of Núñez Feijóo and his circle—, he has earned a certain respect that, in practice, translates into limited wear and tear, allowing him to attract votes beyond his usual base, both from the right (from Vox) and the left (from the PSOE itself). And this in a land that had been a socialist stronghold.

"We trust in the comeback." In this way, the PSOE spokesperson, Montse Mínguez, responded this Monday to all the published polls that point to a historic defeat for the socialists in the Andalusian elections on May 17. "Let's not get demoralized, quite the opposite," she added, and assured that there are "many people worried about public services" who will trust María Jesús Montero to change the model that the PP has established in the last two legislatures. "We will fight until the end, the vote is on May 17 and that is the poll that counts," she stated.

Easter Week has offered a theoretical break to gather strength for what is to come, the Andalusian regional elections, the most important of this cycle that began in January with those held in Extremadura. This new date at the polls is the one that interests Madrid the most, but also Barcelona, due to its implications. We are talking about a territory with a population of 8,676,713 people, of whom 6,812,861 have the right to vote. It is not just because of the demographic weight of this community that there is a lot at stake in these elections. The full cycle has been and continues to be a testing ground with the prospect of the next general elections, and today it has been settled without a definitive diagnosis. The PP continues to fuel the idea that its arrival at Moncloa is very close, even if it is with Vox as an uncomfortable and essential travel companion. To confirm this, it needs to repeat its current absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament. Anything less than that will lead to questioning the Popular Party's chances of achieving its main objective. For the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, this match is decisive. The president of the Junta, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, therefore, has a high responsibility in this electoral call, from which his party may emerge with its chest puffed out or with the obligation to ask many questions about the causes of the slowdown in its expectations.

Carlos Cuerpo and Arcadi España have moved up a rung in the Spanish government after the departure of María Jesús Montero. The hitherto number two in the Spanish executive, however, not only hands over the first vice-presidency and the Ministry of Finance, but also the negotiating power with the so-called Catalan file. Specifically, Arcadi España will be the one to tackle the hot potato of materializing the new financing and reopening talks with Esquerra after the transfer of the IRPF derailed. España was one of the strong men of Ximo Puig's Valencian government and those who know him define him as a convinced federalist and Valencianist, as well as being a firm defender of new regional financing. In fact, he endorses the reform that Montero agreed with ERC. And what do PSC and ERC think of the new minister? The Republicans view him favorably for giving a new "opportunity" to negotiations.In Palau they also look hopefully at the new minister, whom a voice from the Catalan socialists describes as "receptive" to the demands of Catalonia, many of them coinciding with those of the Valencian Country."Arcadi is social democracy made politician, dialogue made ruler, common sense made person," wrote former Valencian president Ximo Puig in a message on X after his appointment was made public. In statements to el ARA, he reaffirms: "He is a person with an open disposition, without closed dogmatisms, with the capacity to listen and empathy." España was Puig's chief of staff during his time in Madrid, also when he was general secretary of the PSPV and when he presided over the Generalitat Valenciana, and subsequently served as minister of Territorial Policy and also of Finance. "Federalism is part of his political culture," defends Puig, who recalls that he is one of the people who has most defended new regional financing within the PSOE. In fact, this is one of the issues that Esquerra values.

Pedro Sánchez on Thursday bid farewell to his closest and most loyal collaborator since he arrived at Moncloa in June 2018. Since then, María Jesús Montero has continuously held the Finance portfolio, one of the most sensitive in any government, and from there she has climbed positions to become, in December 2023, the first vice-president, i.e., number two in the executive. Undoubtedly, Sánchez is giving up one of the pillars of his government to send her to compete in Andalusia against Juanma Moreno Bonilla, a mission that currently seems impossible. It is true, however, that in politics, this month and a half remaining until the elections is an eternity.

If you've been following the story of how the Government withdrew the budget proposal it had submitted to Parliament at the last minute, it won't surprise you that today we begin by emphasizing that The elections in Andalusia now have a date: May 17th.

One of the first consequences of the calling of elections in Andalusia The biggest news has been the departure of María Jesús Montero from the Spanish government. The Vice President and Minister of Finance will have to pack her bags to become the PSOE candidate in the elections, which were announced early this Monday by President Juanma Moreno Bonilla. In her first press conference since the announcement, Montero confirmed this Tuesday that she is beginning "this electoral race" as a candidate and that her departure as minister "will be imminent in the coming days," as she stated on Monday.

Any news we discuss here must be understood within the context of a war that increasingly affects us. War first in Ukraine, and now in Iran and Lebanon. The price of oil has climbed again, and we know that when gasoline goes up, everything else goes up. Our economy currently depends on two politicians, Netanyahu in Israel and Trump in the United States, who don't care about any of this because war gives them free rein to do whatever they want. For example, Israel has attacked the world's largest gas fieldSo this war, which the United States has called "Epic Fury," is bringing us epic inflation and epic disaster, like everything Trump's inept finger touches, especially when he lets himself be swayed by the Israeli lobby and trusts his intuition more than his generals. It's becoming clearer every day that the United States won't bring down the ayatollahs' regime with bombings and targeted assassinations.

I am surprised that Miquel Puig, with whom I have shared analyses and diagnoses so many times, opposes arguments which he himself has strongly defended.

The PSOE-ERC-PSC agreement for a supposed new financing model is a prime example of the current political reality in Catalonia. Or, to put it more accurately: of the current state of affairs. Firstly, because in our country, both from the mainstream media and from those who always prioritize stability—even above their own economic interests—the agreement has been presented as a fait accompli, when in reality it is nothing more than a highly improbable possibility. In other words, ERC and PSOE have counted their chickens before they hatched, counting on anyone who denounces them paying a high price.

The day after crashing into the wall of the PP over the financing reform and while José Manuel Albares He was talking about Venezuela in CongressMaría Jesús Montero has had to appear in the Senate – forced by the absolute majority of the Popular Party – to give explanations about the SEPI caseAn investigation by the National Court into the awarding of public contracts. The First Vice President of the Spanish government defended "the honor, responsibility, and prestige" of SEPI, a state-owned company attached to the Ministry of Finance that acts as the State investment armMontero defended the procedures as "correct." Constantly invoking the secrecy of the investigation, she emphasized that, "for now," it cannot be stated that "any irregularities have been committed" or that "any file has been discovered that was processed in a manner different from the law," and she emphatically endorsed SEPI's actions: "There's no bad apple." The PP wanted to start the year by targeting the alleged corruption cases surrounding—and implicating—the Spanish government, but—less than two kilometers away—Moncloa Palace opted to focus on Pedro Sánchez's international policy with the Foreign Minister's appearance before the lower house. The one in the eye of the storm is Vicente Fernández Guerrero, who was president of SEPI during Pedro Sánchez's first year in Moncloa and was arrested a month ago, along with Leire Díez—known as plumber of the PSOE—and Antxon Alonso—owner of Servinabar, under investigation in the Cerdán case. María Jesús Montero stated that the Civil Guard is investigating the period between 2021 and 2023, two years before Vicente Fernández presided over SEPI: he resigned after being summoned as a suspect in the Aznalcóllar mine case, from which he was ultimately acquitted. "It was not during this period that these individuals held political responsibilities in any of the institutions of this government," she emphasized. She defended herself by posing two questions: "Can you tell me what kind of responsibility I could possibly have in this matter? What is the point of holding a hearing on a subject about which we have no information?" "It disgusts us that there are people who might use politics to enrich themselves financially, but we must be able to clearly define who should answer to the justice system and not tarnish the institutions," the Minister of Finance also requested. Having said that, María Jesús Montero demanded that the PP stop "throwing insidious lies" about the "commendable work" done by SEPI employees. Next, it was the turn of the Minister for Ecological Transition, Sara Aagesen, who distanced herself from any "shadow of suspicion" and assured that "never" has "been" benefited "any company or individual" and that she has always acted with "maximum transparency." Her department is linked to the hydrocarbons case being investigated by the National Court. In fact, the former chief of staff of her predecessor, Teresa Ribera, will have to testify as a witness in two weeks. "Either a participant, an accomplice, or negligent"

The PP has taken the opportunity to attack María Jesús Montero and to make a totum revolutumIn her remarks, she included references to Plus Ultra, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, and Paco Salazar. "Pedro Sánchez surrounded himself with people useful for committing crimes and looting, a government prepared to steal," declared the leader of the People's Party in the Senate, Alicia García. She dubbed Montero the "vice president of bribes" and the "minister of the SEPI black hole," reproaching her for presenting herself as a "mere spectator" of what was happening at SEPI: "She is either a participant, an accomplice, or negligent. Or all three." "Spain cannot afford a state captured by its corruption," she concluded.

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The spectacle of Wednesday's Fiscal and Financial Policy Council meeting, where Vice President and Finance Minister María Jesús Montero presented the proposed new financing system to her regional counterparts, can only be described as lamentable. Never before has a Spanish government put so much money on the table to transfer to the Autonomous Communities. And yet, the PP-governed regions have rushed to reject the system with the sole argument that it was agreed upon with Catalonia, and specifically with ERC. Anti-Catalan sentiment remains such a significant driver of the conservative vote that the PP is willing to go so far as to renounce a substantial amount of money simply because it considers it "tainted" by separatism, thereby harming its own citizens.

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Today, the financing model presented by Vice President Montero, which stems from an agreement with the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), will be approved by the Council for Fiscal and Financial Policy (comprised of the Minister of Finance and the regional ministers of Economy). However, its approval does not mean it will be implemented immediately, as it will now have to be negotiated in Congress with all parties, and, as you know, the proposal currently lacks the necessary votes. The People's Party (PP) and Vox are fundamentally opposed to the system, while Together for Catalonia (Junts) believes it falls short.

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What has become of the "solidarity economic agreement," the title given by the ERC leadership—at that time headed by Marta Rovira—to the financing agreement that would ultimately lead to Salvador Illa's downfall? The President of the Generalitat never embraced the concept of an "agreement," nor did the Spanish government. What was put in writing in July 2024 stipulated that Catalonia would collect all taxes, cede a percentage to the State, and establish a solidarity quota. A year and a half later, the agreement between the Spanish government and Esquerra—in which The State will allocate almost 4.7 billion euros to Catalonia– differs substantially from what Isla brought to the Palau de la Generalitat.

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Here are 10 concrete points to consider regarding funding:

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