Will Pedro Sánchez hold out now? All the scenarios for the crisis in Spain

MadridThe report from the Civil Guard's Central Operational Unit (UCO) naming Santos Cerdán, the PSOE's number three until Thursday, has left Pedro Sánchez on the ropes. Evidence of corruption by the Spanish president's right-hand man in the party They have generated a political crisis of a magnitude never before seen during the Socialist leader's term.

Sánchez holds out until 2027

Let the decisions already announced serve as a firewall

The first hypothesis is that Sánchez's initial expressed intentions will prevail. That is, that Cerdán's resignation, the external audit of the accounts, and the internal changes within the PSOE, which will hold a federal committee on July 5 in Seville to replace the organization secretary and restructure its executive branch, will serve as a firewall. For the time being, the Spanish Prime Minister maintains that he will hold office until 2027. His intention is to protect the Spanish executive and not bring forward the Spanish elections. This is the scenario advocated this Sunday by María Jesús Montero. The first vice president and deputy leader of the Socialists stated in statements to the media from Écija (Andalusia) that the PSOE "has acted with absolute clarity and forcefulness" and claimed that "there are many reasons for this term to continue moving forward."

Pressure is forcing more changes

Government crisis, confidence issue or early elections

Another possibility is that Sánchez remains at the helm of the Spanish government and the PSOE, but is forced to make more changes and moves than he has announced so far or is unable to complete his term. In recent days, critical socialist voices have begun to be heard, considering that Sánchez's reaction is insufficient. Some are calling for an early election to distance the Spanish elections from the regional and municipal elections scheduled for spring 2027 and reduce the potential punishment for the Socialists in the regions due to the scandal, although it is assumed that this would likely mean losing the Moncloa Palace. This is what the president of Castilla La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, has proposed. Other Socialist officials have suggested holding an extraordinary party congress to further address internal changes.

The members of the plurinational majority have also warned that what Sánchez has announced so far is not enough. Sumar called for a "180-degree turn" in the executive's social policies and a new relationship framework with the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party). Initially, Yolanda Díaz's party did not rule out the possibility that the Spanish Prime Minister would have to submit to a vote of confidence in Congress, but it later reversed itself, and so far, no parliamentary ally of Sánchez has demanded it or withdrawn their support. It's worth remembering that the only party that can trigger a vote of confidence is Sánchez, and that if the initiative receives more votes in favor than against, he would have to resign. As for Junts (Junts), which a few months ago did demand a vote of confidence due to the PSOE's failure to comply with agreements, it has not put it on the table now either, but has requested an urgent meeting with Sánchez to explore the feasibility of completing the legislature. Podemos also does not see this option "resolving anything," but it places the Spanish government "in the ICU" and warns that the purple party "is moving even further away."

However, what the members have demanded is greater forcefulness and explanations. ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia) called for a "complete and extraordinary" audit of the Ministry of Transport, as well as Sánchez's appearance in Congress. Without yet granting this request, the Prime Minister has informed the parliamentary groups that he will appear in the Lower House this week to face questions during the control session. The PP (People's Party) has announced that, if Sánchez does not appear to provide explanations on the Cerdán case, it will request an extraordinary plenary session this week to force him to take a position on the matter, on which the members will have to take a position. Another option Sánchez has on the table is a government crisis that involves changes in the Council of Ministers and in the areas of the Ministry of Transport that are under scrutiny by the UCO (Union of the Workers' Union).

Sánchez is forced to step aside.

That partners withdraw their confidence or that more evidence appears

"Pedro Sánchez, resign!" was the cry of PP members gathered in Malaga this Sunday at an event hosted by Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Although PP leaders do not believe the Socialist leader is willing to voluntarily step aside, this could be another possibility depending on how events unfold. For now, the PP continues to rule out presenting a motion of no confidence against Sánchez that would force him to resign and call elections. However, if any of his supporters were to disassociate themselves and open up to supporting him, the scenario would change. The PP leader maintains public pressure on these parties, warning them that they will be "complicit" in corruption if they do not withdraw their support for an increasingly cornered Sánchez. Vox, for its part, has asked for two deputies from another party in Congress to support them in order to reach the 35 necessary to present one.

Another option that cannot be ruled out is that more evidence emerges regarding the Koldo plot, extending responsibility beyond the three protagonists (Cerdán, former minister José Luis Ábalos, and his former advisor Koldo García). "There will probably be more," predicted Feijóo, who hoped that "they'll all fall." This includes Sánchez, the PSOE, and the Spanish government. The emergence of more evidence implicating the Socialist leader, the party, or executive officials could lead to Sánchez's immediate resignation and an early election, with the uncertainty of who might replace him at the head of a deeply damaged PSOE.

Or there could also be another scenario: Sánchez resigns but no elections are called for the plurinational majority to elect a new president. This would allow the PSOE and its parliamentary allies to maintain control of Spain's government in the face of the rise of the right, as the polls now indicate. When Sánchez, in 2024, took five days to reflect on the judicial cases that were beginning to proliferate, he was already planning this option: at the time, there was speculation that a woman could replace him. Also within the party, and with influence over Sánchez, are former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and the President of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa.

The evolution of Spanish politics is currently unpredictable.