Why Sánchez is the lesser evil of the investiture partners

Barcelona"All of Sánchez's partners, inside and outside the government, talk a lot but do little. They complain a lot, but they keep Sánchez in power and are complicit in the situation of systematic and systemic corruption." These are the words of Cuca Gamarra, a PP deputy, the day after the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, he would show himself willing to resist Despite the alleged cases of corruption and harassment that have surfaced among the Socialists, the People's Party (PP) has been pressuring the parties that supported Pedro Sánchez in 2023 for months to abandon the coalition government and join a motion of no confidence. However, beyond calling for decisive action and transparency, the coalition partners have made no move to withdraw their support for Sánchez. Why? The Spanish president's continued leadership is crucial not only for the legislative agenda of the junior partner, Sumar, but also for the fulfillment of the investiture agreements signed by partners such as Esquerra Republicana and Junts.

Yolanda Díaz has called for "radical" changes in the government So that the sexual harassment cases that have surfaced and the legal cases that have been swirling around the executive branch don't negatively impact the government's performance. However, he hasn't specified any concrete measures nor has he opened the door to leaving the government if the PSOE doesn't do what he asks. On the contrary, he stated: "I am here to improve the lives of workers, and nothing will distract me." This Tuesday, Sumar and the parties that make up this coalition, including the Comuns, requested a meeting with Sánchez to learn about the measures he intends to implement "to tackle corruption and cases of sexual and workplace harassment." The Socialists have agreed to the meeting and say they are looking for an opening this week. Sumar has the greatest interest in the coalition government not collapsing because its legislative agenda depends on it. Furthermore, early elections, given the current polls, would represent a major setback for this political space.

In a press conference this Tuesday following the cabinet meeting, the outgoing spokesperson for the Spanish government, Pilar Alegría, reiterated that the junior coalition partner, Sumar, is being offered "a shared roadmap" to improve citizens' lives and that "what lies ahead is the unity of the right wing and the country." Therefore, the PSOE is not, a priori, preparing any radical reforms.

The situation is similar for the investiture partners. ERC and EH Bildu also acknowledge that the alternative to Pedro Sánchez is a PP-Vox government, a scenario they wish to avoid. "Decisiveness, clear gestures, and clarity regarding abuses are necessary. And the commitments to Catalonia must be made concrete," stated Francesc-Marc Álvaro, a member of parliament, in an interview on Catalunya Ràdio this Tuesday. The Republican leadership's thesis is that Sánchez and ERC need each other: the Spanish president to finish his term and Oriol Junqueras' party to ensure the Spanish government honors the investiture agreements. However, the viability of some agreements, such as the new financing model, depends not only on the national government but also on parliamentary arithmetic. Meanwhile, Junts announced with great fanfare that it was breaking with the Spanish government and joining the opposition to denounce the government's failure to comply with the Brussels agreement. Unlike Oriol Junqueras, who requested a meeting with Pedro Sánchez in January, Junts has ruled out meeting with the Spanish president if he opens a round of talks—as ERC "suggested," according to party spokesperson Isaac Albert on Monday. But despite the split, the party is not interested in taking the step to oust Pedro Sánchez: allying with the PP to pass a motion of no confidence. The message that Junts has been sending out in recent days is to ask ERC for a united front to pressure the Spanish government now that it is in a moment of "weakness." "We must seize this opportunity," reiterated Junts spokesperson in Congress, Míriam Nogueras, on Catalunya Ràdio.

The position of PNV and Podemos

However, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) went a step further this weekend. Its president, Aitor Esteban, warned that if the Socialist Party (PSOE) did not rectify the situation, Sánchez should "seriously consider" calling early elections. Esteban also recalled the Spanish government's inability to pass the budget and the difficult arithmetic in Congress. The PNV was also courted by the People's Party (PP) to join the no-confidence motion, although so far the party has rejected any alliance with the PP due to the necessary presence of Vox in the equation. The PNV's stance in 2018 still resonates, when it first supported Mariano Rajoy's budget and just days later endorsed the no-confidence motion that made Pedro Sánchez president. Back then, it was the Gürtel corruption case verdict that convinced the Basque nationalists.

Podemos is the only party that has been hindering the viability of the Spanish government for weeks and is forceful in its attacks against the PSOE over alleged corruption cases. In fact, the party, now led by Ione Belarra, has openly advocated for early elections.