Who does it benefit most that Aliança Catalana does not run in the Spanish elections?

BarcelonaOn November 29th there will be no Aliança Catalana ballot at the polling stations and there is a good number of potential voters for the party presided over by Sílvia Orriols who will look for alternatives. Who benefits most from this situation? For some time now, surveys have been drawing a scenario in which there are two parties that stand out as option B for citizens who, when the time comes for the Catalan elections, are clear that they will choose Aliança. Almost 4 out of every 10 of these voters will opt for either Vox (18.5%) or Junts (18%), according to the latest barometer from the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO), published this Wednesday.

In the month of July, it was also Junts (23%) and Vox (22%) that capitalized on this type of dual vote with Aliança, but the relationship was even more intense. It is understood that, conversely—that is, in the next Catalan elections—these two parties would be precisely the ones that would suffer the most if the pro-independence far-right continues its rapid growth in the polls. A situation that especially worries the 'juntaires'—the CEO predicts a sharp decline for them in the Parliament, but also in Congress, despite not competing with Aliança—who have the Catalan chamber as their natural habitat.

With the fight against immigration as their main battle cry, the crossover with Vox is also natural, although Santiago Abascal's party views it positively; party sources admit that there is a symbiosis between the two formations and that, in fact, what interests Vox basically is growing in the Congress of Deputies. This latest barometer predicts that Vox could triple its results in Catalonia, going from 2 to 6 seats in the Spanish lower house. Furthermore, many of the voters that Aliança has been managing to capture for some time are not pro-independence (only 54% of its voters declare themselves in favor of independence), which makes it easier for them to transition towards a Spanish far-right option.

But this Wednesday's barometer offers a relevant piece of data compared to the one in July. There is a third party that would also capture an important percentage of Aliança's potential voters: ERC would take 13% of them. In fact, if we look at the assessment of leaders, Gabriel Rufián is, after Sílvia Orriols, the best-rated politician by Aliança's future voters. The third is Miriam Nogueras.

And who is the most poorly rated by Aliança voters? Pedro Sánchez. A few days ago, Orriols was convinced that if they ran in the Spanish elections they would gain representation, but that they would not do so on principle. "I have made the Spanish government fall without leaving Catalonia," she boasted in a message on X. Avoiding the Congress of Deputies will also mean that Aliança will not have to commit itself in a hypothetical scenario where its votes would decide the majorities.