Vice President Abascal
BarcelonaThe Extremadura elections this Sunday have yielded two clear conclusions for the People's Party (PP). The first is that Alberto Núñez Feijóo is very likely to become the next Spanish president. The second, and more unsettling for the PP headquarters in Madrid, is that Santiago Abascal is equally likely to become vice president. In short, the left is losing ground, but the beneficiary is not the PP but Vox, which is capturing the most anti-Sánchez vote and, at the same time, the most anti-establishment vote—the vote of those who feel forgotten and want no more palliative measures but a complete overhaul. This angry vote is concentrated in rural areas and among young people, especially boys. Therefore, the person who should be most concerned about the Extremadura results right now is Juanma Moreno Bonilla of Andalusia, who will be gambling everything on his absolute majority in June. Sociologically, Extremadura is the region most similar to Andalusia. In Aragon, which holds elections on February 8, polls predict a similar growth for Vox as in Extremadura, which would leave Jorge Azcón in the same weak position he is in now. And in Castile and León, an absolute majority for Alfonso Fernández Mañueco in the March elections is unthinkable due to the fragmentation of the regional parliament and the rise of Vox. Therefore, the most important elections will be those in Andalusia, because if Moreno Bonilla loses his majority and is forced to form a coalition with Vox, Feijóo will also lose his main political supporter in the run-up to the general elections.
This appears to be Pedro Sánchez's plan to try and survive again. The PSOE doesn't aspire to reconquer any territory, perhaps with the exception of the Valencian Community, but rather to exploit the contradictions and tensions that will surely exist between the PP and Vox. In his appearance this Monday, Feijóo seemed resigned to appearing in the same bloc as Vox. "What 60 percent of the people of Extremadura have chosen is to tear down Sánchez's wall," he said, adding his votes to those of the far right.
De-escalation of hostilities
It is obvious, then, that Abascal has outmaneuvered Feijóo, who rightly believed that the lesson of the 2023 defeat for the conservative electorate was that they should concentrate their votes on a single party. It is likely that from now on we will see the PP adapt to the new reality and downplay its hostile stance. The talks between Feijóo and Abascal regarding the investiture of the new Valencian president already pointed in that direction. The question now is what will become of leaders like Guardiola, who until now have displayed a certain moderation and rejection of the far right.
The other big question between now and the general elections is whether Sánchez will once again be able to mobilize an electorate that is showing clear signs of resignation at the far right's rise to power for the first time since the end of the Franco dictatorship. On June 23, 2023, an informal alliance of the Spanish left, women's suffrage, and Catalan and Basque nationalists blocked the PP-Vox blog. During that legislative term, it seemed the amnesty law could be the PSOE's downfall, but that wasn't the case. It was the corruption and sexual harassment scandals that undermined Pedro Sánchez's credibility and tarnished his legacy.
Right now, the PSOE's only hope is that Vox will impose its far-right agenda on the PP in such a clumsy way that it provokes a backlash. But unfortunately for Sánchez, the current political climate is not that of 2023, and a right-wing victory seems inevitable. However, in politics, accidents happen, as Zapatero knows. And if anyone resembles Rajoy, it's Feijóo.