This is the million Catalans who are open to a dictatorship, according to the ICPS.
Researchers suggest that a "disconnection" with the democratic system is occurring due to precariousness.
BarcelonaHalf a century after the death of dictator Francisco Franco, the health of democracy is faltering, and it is no coincidence that social unrest is coinciding with the rise of far-right populist forces, according to a study by the Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ICPS). The survey, presented this Wednesday, explains why support for democracy in Catalonia is at its lowest level since the worst of the economic crisis of this century, in 2012. Specifically, 19.4% of Catalans, nearly one million people, are open to a dictatorial system (up from 10%), 4.9% would prefer a dictatorship at certain times, and 2.6% did not know or did not answer. In 2012, when support was at its highest point, the percentage was 19.7%. In any case, 80% remain loyal to democracybut with a downward trend.
Based on this data they developed the study Democratic erosion To delve into the reasons for this decline, they segmented the data by social class, profession, generation, and values. From this, they concluded that the main "danger" is indifference toward the political regime, which has soared to historic highs, three points higher than in 2012. And what is the reason? According to the ICPS, it's job insecurity and the "erosion of expectations," according to the authors of the research, ICPS director Oriols Bartomeus and researcher Lucía Medina. The recovery of the once-ideal relationship between citizens and the democratic system has not occurred, and it is now far from the 92.9% support that democracy enjoyed before the 2008 economic crisis.
Compelling data
Beyond the disengagement of young people from the system—only 61.8% of boys and 73.1% of girls support it—precarious employment is the key differentiating factor that drives these figures. Among Catalans with higher education, 90.7% prefer democracy over any other system; among those with upper secondary education, the percentage drops to 82.6%, while among those with lower secondary education or less, it plummets to 67.7%. This last segment shows a higher rate of indifference, with 22.3% of respondents expressing this view, while 6% favor dictatorship in certain cases. This represents a difference of fifteen and a half points between the pro-democracy group and the indifferent group, compared to the average.
If we break it down by social class, skilled and unskilled manual workers have the lowest support for democracy (73% and 74.9% respectively), with indifference towards democracy or a preference for dictatorship under certain circumstances rising from 24.3% to 22.4%. Among property owners—whom political scientists clarified are not the upper class, as they comprise the bulk of the self-employed and farmers, also facing significant precariousness—support for democracy reaches 76.2%, while disaffected options (dictatorship and indifference) stand at 17.1%. This contrasts sharply with the service class, which includes liberal workers—the highest level—where 90.6% support the democratic system, with only 3.9% leaning towards authoritarianism and 3.9% remaining indifferent. Slightly less, but still high, is the support of non-manual workers (83.2%), which does not prevent 9.7% indifference towards the political system and 5.9% leaning towards dictatorship.
Ideological Axis
Among right-wing and far-right voters, support for democracy is low (61.5%), but researchers warn that the data regarding those who are unsure of their ideological position is even more concerning: only 51% support democracy, with 27.6% indifferent and 8.3% leaning towards authoritarianism. Regarding sentiments, those with negative feelings towards the system prefer democracy (83.4%) more than the apathetic (only 67.8%), which is another major challenge they have identified. Of those with positive feelings, 90% are committed democrats. Among those who are indifferent or have authoritarian leanings, the primary threats to democracy are separatism (50.6% for the indifferent and 61.4% for the authoritarians), immigrants (28.2% and 56.8%, respectively), and feminism (30.7%). However, the far left is also seen as a problem by more than 50% of this group, while 43.6% of self-declared democrats also see it as a headache. In fact, if we look at the general population, the majority say that the far right, fake news, and economic inequality are the main threats to the democratic system.
Generational divide
"We are facing a democratic disengagement, a democratic disconnection of a segment of society," notes Bartomeus, who clarifies that this sentiment has led to the rise of far-right forces. He adds that it is due to "social exclusion and the generational divide" because "younger generations and the most disadvantaged segments of society" are disengaging from the system because "they don't benefit," thus breaking the link between progress and democracy. He also commented that the "legacy" of the social rupture caused by the 2008 crisis still exists. According to Medina, "there is an increase in precarious employment" and "the recovery has been built on more precarious foundations, with increased temporary contracts and lower wages—especially in manual labor—and people are not happy with the current situation." The fieldwork for the study concluded in December 2024 with a sample of 1,200 Catalans with Spanish nationality, surveyed in person.
