They say, they say... that now Puigdemont is really coming back

For almost a decade, the return of Puigdemont has marked Catalan and Spanish politics, but now the moment of truth has arrived. It seems clear that the Constitutional Court will grant protection to the leadership of the 'Procés' –this Tuesday it already took the first step– and that the Supreme Court will withdraw the arrest warrant for the former president. This is confirmed by both TC sources and Supreme Court sources, and Puigdemont's entourage also gives credit to this path. They say, they say... that the former president is now indeed returning. The scheduled calendar is as follows: this Tuesday, September 22, there was an initial debate at the Constitutional Court in which a majority of magistrates positioned themselves in favor of the amnesty for Jordi Turull and against the proposal by the conservative rapporteur José María Macías to reject it. As a result of this, the report will move to the next plenary session, which will be on October 6, where it is expected that President Conde-Pumpido will present a proposal favorable to the amnesty of Dolors Bassa, that it be approved by a majority, and that it also have effects for Puigdemont. In other words, it would be at this moment that the Constitutional Court would firmly endorse for the first time the amnesty for the crime of embezzlement related to the 1-O and would open the door to his return.If everything goes according to plan, when this TC ruling is published, which may be a few days after the decision of October 6th or 7th, Llarena will be bound by it and could proceed, even on his own initiative, without notifying the parties, to withdraw the arrest warrant for the former president, Toni Comín, and Lluís Puig. This would imply that Puigdemont would no longer be in the state security forces' alert system and could already circulate freely within the Spanish state without being arrested.However, at this point his case would not yet be completely archived: at the same moment Llarena would have to dictate the conclusion of the summary and send it to the Supreme Court chamber, which after asking for the opinion of the parties (they usually have about five working days to do so), would decide whether to close the case definitively also by virtue of the endorsement of the appeal for protection to the Constitutional Court. When exactly would Puigdemont return? He does not want to advance anything and everything will depend on the content of the resolutions, but he could choose up to three moments to return: once the TC has decided; waiting for the withdrawal of Llarena's arrest warrant, or once the case has been definitively archived. From his environment, however, they prescribe prudence and remember that whenever it is, we are talking about October, November or at the latest December – provided everything goes as planned.The implications of the return

The fact that Puigdemont is returning to Catalonia opens a new phase both in the Principality and in Spain.

First, because it will put an end to an unjust situation after nine years in exile. Also for former prisoners like Junqueras, who with the amnesty will be able to run in the next elections. It must be remembered that the amnesty law was approved in Congress two years ago and until now the Supreme Court has refused to apply it.Second, because Puigdemont's presence in Catalonia will be a turning point for Junts. To begin with, beyond traveling the country, the former president will have to assess whether he takes on the role of leader of the opposition in Parliament, as demanded by Junts officials, and visualizes an alternative to Salvador Illa, or if, on the contrary, he decides to withdraw from the race for the Generalitat. Puigdemont's landing in the party may also be associated with making changes to the leadership. That is to say, that he decides to change people who currently have a lot of power for other profiles.And third, the Spanish government hopes that Puigdemont's return will pave the way towards a reconciliation with Junts, even in the form of a budget. A scenario that the Junts members do not even want to hear about right now.