The vertigo of ERC and Junts in the face of a PP-Vox government

BarcelonaCatalan politics has entered a kind of timeout. The reason is that it is completely dependent on the survival of Pedro Sánchez. And the Spanish president, at least until July 9, when he will appear in Congress, has no time for anything but his party.

In some ways, the crisis surrounding the Cerdán case has highlighted the vertigo of ERC and Junts in the face of a hypothetical Spanish election that would almost certainly give a majority to the combined PP and Vox and break up all the negotiations they are currently underway with the PSOE. Gabriel Rufián was the most explicit when he spoke of speeding up the legislature because it was far from clear how long it would last.

It has been precisely this conciliatory attitude of ERC and Junts that has reassured the Moncloa and convinced them that it is possible to try to make it through the remaining two years. They know that Podemos, which is the main source of destabilization right now, cannot appear to be the party that will overthrow Sánchez, and that when push comes to shove, it won't be able to vote no to everything either. As long as the stain of corruption doesn't spread even further, of course.

Island Effect

The fear of ERC and Junts is understandable because the elections would not come at a good time for them, and furthermore, a possible government of the PP and Vox would leave them outside the main Catalan institutions and could further strengthen Salvador Illa. The paradox they face is that, to avoid this Isla effect, they must cross their fingers that Sánchez holds out and, therefore, help him as much as possible. For Isla, losing the PSC's influence in Madrid would be a one-time thing, but it would also free him from commitments and position him as the main anti-PP dam.

The great unknown of the Spanish legislature is what attitude Sánchez will take during his remaining two years, especially considering that, at this moment, his intention is to run again. We already know that major progressive projects, such as reducing the working day, will be difficult to achieve due to the opposition of parties like Junts and the PNV. However, the issue of regional financing is still pending, which is causing panic in the Ministry of Finance (not surprisingly, María Jesús Montero will be a candidate for Andalusia next year). We should have clues on this matter starting on the 9th.

The details

During her trip to Miami, the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz-Ayuso, met a cleaning lady of Cuban origin who congratulated her, told her she had fled communism in Cuba, and asked when Pedro Sánchez would be ousted. The woman, by the way, was working despite being well over 70, a fairly common occurrence in the United States.

At the press conference following the NATO summit, a journalist asked Pedro Sánchez what would happen if 2029 arrived and Spain hadn't fulfilled its commitments. Sánchez's eyes widened and he responded with a smile: "I appreciate you asking me this question about 2029 because it makes me think that I might still be prime minister. We'll see."