The PSOE: a wounded party with no alternative to Sánchez

BarcelonaIn 1994 and 1995, the plumbers working at the Moncloa Palace, including a young Miquel Iceta, would go to the center of Madrid every morning to wait for the day's press. There, at 4 a.m., they would check on the plumbers. in situ whether they would have to deal with any new corruption scandals that day. The night raid gave them a few hours to prepare a response, before the radio stations went live.

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Now things have changed and the war room Moncloa is constantly watching digital news, but the psychotic atmosphere of the 1990s is repeated. But with a difference. Now, the alleged leader of the plot, Santos Cerdán, was positioned at the heart of the party as its organizational secretary, and from there he influenced the government. It's hard to imagine a worse scenario for the PSOE, which saw the Civil Guard enter its headquarters on Friday.

"He's fooled us all." It's the phrase most often repeated in socialist circles. Ten days after the scandal erupted with the UCO report, the party is still in the intensive care unit with serious injuries. "We're screwed," says one representative. "We're emotionally devastated, our hearts are sinking," insists another. "The blow is brutal, no one could have imagined it," repeats a government official. "We're damaged but not crushed," summarizes another source who nonetheless wants to be optimistic.

The crisis is so profound that it has multiple fronts and has caused several rifts. First, it has plunged the party into a state of total uncertainty about what else might emerge. "There is fear of further ramifications from the case, but many things have been reviewed and nothing has been found," says a source from Ferraz. "Ugly conversations will emerge, but we must ride out the storm as long as nothing illegal is found," insists another source. The party lives in a state of permanent tension, with nerves on edge. "Since that Thursday, I won't put my hand in the fire for anyone," says one deputy. "We don't believe anything and we fear everything," summarizes a veteran socialist. If a minister falls, the blow could be decisive, they admit.

Cerdán's betrayal

Secondly, there's the emotional impact of Cerdán's betrayal. "I've known him for many years because he's from Navarre and I'm from Aragon. He was a normal guy. When you went out to eat with him, he'd order fried eggs. You didn't see any ostentation. Ábalos, on the other hand, was clearly into money and women," explains a veteran member of the Aragonese PSOE. "Ábalos was pure dynamite," adds another regional leader.

These days, Socialist representatives are reviewing all their conversations with Cerdán and the efforts they made on his behalf. "He asked me to meet with some people, but I'm calm because I couldn't get anything done," explains one representative. "Everyone met with him, because he was the negotiator and the intermediary with the partners," admits another with some concern.

Now everyone is pretending that no one, starting with Sánchez, noticed anything. "The noise surrounding many cases that are pure garbage, like Begoña's or her brother's, made us ignore the rumors about Cerdán," one MP now laments.

"He's a character like Enric Marco [the imposter who pretended to be a Mauthausen prisoner]. He's developed some kind of split personality disorder. He thinks that up until the day before he was denying everything to me and speaking badly of Koldo," explains a veteran MP who compares the situation to a breakup. Cerdán's closest collaborators claim that they don't recognize him in either the audio recordings or the WhatsAppAnd his secretary couldn't help but burst into tears when she read the report. "What if I've been unwittingly helping him?" she asked other Socialist deputies.

Third, there's the psychological impact on the morale of the entire organization and the government. "We work ourselves to death only to have it all ruined by these guys," complains a ministry official who works 12-hour days. The pressure on activists is beginning to feel suffocating. "In Madrid, it's not easy to go out on the streets," acknowledges a ministry official. "And in the villages, during the holidays, if someone shouts 'Pedro Sánchez, son of a bitch!' I'm sure many will follow suit," adds a regional official. The PSOE is preparing for a difficult summer.

Fourth, there's the serious discredit the recordings pose to the PSOE's feminist discourse. "It's all so botched and disgusting that after reading the report, I had to go for a run to clear my head," explains a ministry employee. In fact, some PSOE strategists believe this could do more damage than the corruption itself.

The solution: time

But what's the solution? There's a sort of consensus among the sources consulted that some time is needed to recover and act prudently. "We're aware that anything short of holding elections or filing a vote of confidence will seem insufficient, so time is needed now," comments one leader. The party, they admit, is largely still in mourning, but there are already voices calling for the party to rise up and fight the battle.

"The PSOE is much more than the government. There are 20,000 officials across Spain, many of whom are unpaid. We need to explain to all of them that we've been decisive and that not everyone is the same," explains one MP. In fact, at Tuesday's parliamentary group meeting, that was the message delivered by its spokesperson, Patxi López: "We can't stay home. We have to visit the groups and educate them," he said. "People are understanding that this isn't the Gürtel scandal, which affected the entire PP," says one leader who has been in the field, "but people are screwed."

However, there are also those who call for more self-criticism. "Sánchez gave all the power to Santos four years ago. He has run the entire organization without any checks and balances," complains a government official. "Many things will have to be rethought so that this cannot happen again," adds one leader.

The Moncloa bunker

And amidst all the storm, the figure of Pedro Sánchez once again emerges as the only possible lifeline. The Socialist leader responded with his usual hyperactivity, combining preparations for the NATO summit with the reorganization of the party. He has called and spoken with many people and even received at the Moncloa Palace what is currently his main supporter in the region: Salvador Illa. "He thinks the party is currently without a CEO, who is the organization secretary. That's why he's done what he always does: take over," explains a close associate. Cristina Narbona, Montse Mínguez, and Borja Cabezón are the ones who will assist him in this mission until the federal committee meeting on July 5.

Among his inner circle, we must highlight the figure of Chief of Staff Diego Rubio and the Secretary of State for Communication, Lydia del Canto, from Valencia. Her combative nature is responsible for maintaining high morale in the presidential complex. The motto is very clear: "We will not hand over the government to the right."

In the Moncloa, they are convinced that nothing will come of it that could bring down the government and insist that a strong convergence of interests is taking place in Madrid to overthrow Sánchez. "The increase in the minimum wage cost the Ibex 35 18 billion. How can you expect them not to want to overthrow the government?" they assert. It is in this context that they also place Sánchez's loss of media support. This conspiratorial vision is shared by everyone in the Moncloa; everyone sees themselves fighting the forces of evil from their bunkers.

Sánchez's plan

Sánchez outlined a timeline for emerging from the crisis. Until July 5th, the day of the federal committee meeting, the goal is to reorganize the party. Approve changes to the organizational structure, create a new structure, and deliver a speech that will serve to relaunch the party. And on the 9th, the day of his appearance in Congress, Sánchez plans to present himself with an action plan in hand. Pressure from the opposition aside, the PSOE fears neither its members nor its critics. The former believe they lack an alternative. And the latter believe they lack sufficient strength. "There are many rumors fueled by the right, but there is no movement in the region," they say at Ferraz.

What it's all about, then, is resisting and fighting to turn the tables. Or at least holding elections in a different context than the current one. Those in the Moncloa government are already starting to think they won't be able to complete the full term, but what they won't do is call elections now. Furthermore, they're confident that, when the time comes, the electoral impact will be less. "You don't change sides so easily no matter how many ugly things your people do, and now we're at war," they insist. "Between now and July, we know the pressure won't let up, but the PP won't be able to maintain this offensive indefinitely. Their goal is to demoralize us. But we have to keep our hearts strong," adds a Ferraz veteran.

"The problem will be when Pedro gives up because there's no replacement. That's why he can't give up. Neither he nor we," another voice concludes. This is the main key. The PSOE will fight and try to hold on as long as possible, out of conviction, some will say, but also because there's no backup plan for a leader on whom the future of the entire organization currently depends.