The PSOE's strategy: to continue governing
MadridIn this prelude to Christmas, the strategy of the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is to continue governing. As if nothing were happening? No, the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) does not intend to ignore the gravity of the situation, but it is confident in its ability to hold on for a while longer. How much longer—days, weeks, months? They are not saying yet. They are barely recovering from the severe blow caused by the provisional imprisonment of former Minister of Public Works José Luis Ábalos and his former advisor Koldo García. But they hope to mitigate the impact, amidst legal scares and without a budget for 2026. The aim is to let the Christmas holidays pass and carefully consider what should be done to begin the new year, what roadmap to adopt. The government is fully aware of its weakness in Congress. It believes, however, that others, especially the PP (People's Party), are worse off, because they still have no possibility of reaching agreements other than those established with Vox, for example, in Valencia.
To secure the investiture of their new regional president, Juan Francisco Pérez Llorca, the Popular Party has had to pay a high price: adopting a significant portion of the far-right's program and radical rhetoric. The government hopes that for many people, keeping these types of options out of power is more important than punishing the Socialists for the corruption detected within their ranks. The maneuver is not easy. We'll see what "revelations" Ábalos can make, and with what documentary evidence. In any case, this time the waves are many meters high, and getting back on course will be difficult. In fact, the most experienced PSOE leaders confess that the accusations against two of their former organizational secretaries—Santos Cerdán and former minister Ábalos—along with the aforementioned Koldo García, imply a loss of credibility that will almost certainly have electoral repercussions.
The electoral cycle
Regarding the timing of the next election, everything you hear is pure speculation. What will come first is a series of regional elections, starting with Extremadura on December 21st and ending with Andalusia in June. The intermediate stage will be Castile and León. What we can expect is a very interesting testing ground for the general election. The regional leaders of the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) don't want to conflate their elections with national ones. The president of Castile-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, has been saying this for some time, because he is convinced that regional leaders end up taking the brunt of the criticism directed at the central government and its president.
I highly doubt, in any case, that Pedro Sánchez will call a general election before seeing how these three regional elections go. The Socialist leader has data from many polls, especially those from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), headed by José Félix Tezanos. When he calls for elections, Sánchez will do so guided by his predatory instincts, but informed by the fieldwork conducted at this center. Intuitively, I would say that if there are elections, they will be after this first round of regional elections, or at the latest, at the beginning of autumn. The only alternative to this approach is to finish the current legislature and hold elections in 2027.
While he plays with the timeline, the Socialist leader has two particular concerns: Junts i Podem. Last Thursday, both parties made it impossible for Congress to approve the stability targets, a necessary step before focusing on the eventual discussion of a budget proposal. It seems the Socialists, however, are not entirely convinced that Junts i Podem is capable of going all the way and bringing about their downfall. There are also those who think it would be advisable to force a vote on a budget proposal for 2026, even if it means losing, because in this way everyone would have to take responsibility. If the government continues this strategy, it will not be because it wants to demonstrate its parliamentary weakness once again, but because its purpose is to later denounce how the PP has played with the general interest and the coffers of its autonomous communities.
The Sánchez-Feijóo struggle
Therefore, if the PSOE ultimately decides to focus its campaign on the budget, it will be with an eye toward preparing for the next general election. In the essential head-to-head debate of this upcoming campaign, Sánchez will need to be well-equipped with arguments to counter Feijóo's attacks, who will portray the Socialist leader as the epicenter of the corruption cases affecting the PSOE. It will be a tough fight. But the Socialists believe that Feijóo is not a standout parliamentarian and would hardly defeat Sánchez in a television debate. They add that if the PP leader doesn't take the step of presenting a motion of no confidence, it's because he fears losing not only in terms of votes but also politically.
In any case, it's curious that Feijóo agreed to be the first choice in the investiture debate two years ago, knowing he would lose, and yet now he doesn't propose a motion of no confidence, explaining, to justify himself, that he has no chance of winning. The Socialists claim to be demonstrating a lack of self-confidence. But I believe that their decision not to run is influenced by the fact that, to win Vox's votes, as Mazón's replacement in Valencia did, they would have to present a program proposal for governing Spain full of concessions to the far-right's rhetoric.
And while this political dispute unfolds among the main players of the present, Madrid is hosting a series of events commemorating the Transition. Among them was a tribute to the former president of Aragon, Javier Lambán, who passed away last August. Felipe González and Alfonso Guerra were the main speakers, offering further criticism of Pedro Sánchez. It's worth noting this because their speeches reflect a PSOE tradition regarding the preeminence of the State, a concept deeply ingrained in the minds of many Socialists. I say this for those who believe that Sánchez represents the Socialist Party of old. We need to be more nuanced, because if that were the case, Isla would have had a much harder time becoming president of the Generalitat.
