The PSOE lives with fear in its body

MadridFor two weeks, the PSOE has been living in fear. No one knows what might end up coming out of the devices seized by the Civil Guard or how far the fire in the Cerdán-Ábalos-Koldo case might spread. The recordings of the latter, Koldo García, supposedly the least important figure in the corruption plot, have proven to have great destructive power. From the outset, it is already difficult to speak of a presumption of innocence for those who were successively his superiors, first in Navarra with Santos Cerdán—where the plot originated—and later with José Luis Ábalos, especially during his time as Minister of Public Works. The Central Operational Unit (UCO) of the Civil Guard has gathered sufficient material to support very serious accusations against the three. Ábalos, for example, is charged with membership in a criminal organization, bribery, embezzlement, and influence peddling. And the problem for the PSOE is no longer how to try to resolve the crisis triggered by the outcome of the judicial investigations—led from the Supreme Court by Judge Leopoldo Puente—but rather what new information there might be among the materials seized in the latest searches—among others, that of the Socialist Party headquarters on Ferraz Street in Madrid—and how it might affect a more or less hasty end to his mandate.

Officially, the party has closed ranks around its leader, but among the organization's own leaders, there is a clear awareness that this matter is an open case, difficult to isolate, because it has affected key sectors and because the scope of responsibility can still expand. To begin with, political responsibility is not settled with acts of contrition and resolutions to amend. This has been seen in the last week. It's no longer that the PP is demanding Sánchez's departure day after day, accusing him of leading a mafia-like organization. The fact is that not even the Sumar coalition members Not even part of the parliamentary allies wanted to support the socialist leader in the last control session in the government, nor being photographed with him when they went to see him at the Moncloa Palace. And all this happened when, until just a few days before, the top Socialist leaders still thought they had the situation under control. This was not the case, not at all, as was evident with the case of Leire Díez, the socialist activist who had dedicated herself to offering the possible protection of the Prosecutor's Office in exchange for information that would help discredit specific Civil Guard leaders related to the investigations into Ábalos and Koldo. The PSOE has lacked information to prevent the effects of this affair and lacked reflexes in cases such as that of Díez, along with the threats from businessman Víctor de Aldama, even long before the latter broke into the surrealist Press conference of the aforementioned socialist activist, last day 4th.

It was the next day, June 5th, when the Civil Guard submitted to the Supreme Court his report on criminal activities that until then had been attributed essentially to the Ábalos-Koldo tandem. But there was much more. It became clear on the 12th, when it was confirmed that the UCO (Union of the University of Coahuila) was also accusing former Socialist Organization Secretary Santos Cerdán. Sánchez's first reaction when the full details of the report were made public bought him some time, presenting himself as astonished and deceived. However, by then everyone inside and outside the PSOE was already aware that a crisis of potentially devastating consequences had begun. Sánchez's defensive maneuver consisted of a long executive session, in which it was agreed that it was necessary to concentrate all efforts on preserving the continuity of the government and its policies. Therefore, no early elections, no resignation of Sánchez, no vote of confidence, and instead, the opening of a round of consultations with the partners of the investiture pact to try to reaffirm alliances. The risk remains the real possibility of new revelations, especially after Aldama's threats. The PP hopes to be able to link it all with Begoña Gómez and with the interests of the plot in Latin America.

Partner movements

For the Socialists, the consolation is that those who have been their partners until now have no incentive to support a change in the political cycle. Feijóo has not launched a motion of no confidence because, as he himself says, he is "short of four votes." The PSOE is no longer bothered by Podemos's refusal to participate in the round of consultations. The Socialists know that their former supporters cannot facilitate the access to the Moncloa Palace for a PP accompanied by Vox. ERC spokesperson Gabriel Rufián was blunt when he distinguished between the "botched corruption" of the Ábalos and company case and the "premium corruption" of the PP, and urged the PSOE to get moving to recover from the blow it has received. The pro-independence world knows that Sánchez currently has very little room for maneuver to advance new or old demands. But Jordi Turull and Míriam Nogueras were right to go to the Moncloa Palace to speak with the Socialist leader. For Junts, the swift replacement of Santos Cerdán is important, although Sánchez needs a few more days to decide.

From now on, the calculations will be more about strategic moves and the calendar—especially electoral—than about specific issues and votes. All this was discussed in the meeting between Sánchez and Salvador IllaCatalonia is now more important than ever for the Socialists. Isla will not leave the Palau de la Generalitat. The difficulty lies in maintaining a balance with those who believe too much has already been conceded to ERC and Junts. Next week, the Constitutional Court will approve the amnesty law. In short, Sánchez and the PSOE still believe they will be able to cope with the situation. This is partly why they have such a clear message against increasing military spending to 5%. The Socialists continue to believe that their greatest asset is social policy, which is best defended by refusing the aforementioned increase. But they won't cover anything up with that. They will have to continue suffering for the remainder of this term and go to the next elections knowing that the current attrition means they have little chance of winning.