The PSOE falls and Vox soars: the first CIS after the Cerdán case

MadridThe Santos Cerdán case has sunk the electoral prospects of the PSOE, according to the first barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) carried out after the scandal broke. the alleged corruption scandal of the party's former number three. Although Pedro Sánchez's party remains the leading force, it has fallen 7.3 points compared to the previous month's poll. While at the beginning of June the PSOE stood at 34.3% in the estimated vote, this July the CIS gives it 27%. According to the barometer, the party that benefits from the impact of the Cerdán case is not the PP, which also loses eight-tenths of a percentage point, but Vox, which soars. The CIS poll was conducted between July 1 and 7, when Cerdán had already been imprisoned and before the appearance of the president of the Spanish government in Congress that has given him air.

While Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party has closed the gap with the PSOE, and is only half a point behind, with 26.5%, the far-right party is increasing its vote estimate. Santiago Abascal's party has risen to 18.9%, which is 5.7 points more than a month ago. The June poll gave Vox 13.2%. With this increase, Abascal's party has closed the gap with Feijóo's party to less than ten points—they are only 7.6 behind—when a month ago the PP (with an estimated vote of 27.3%) was ahead of Vox by 14.1 points. A scenario that, if confirmed at the polls, would make it difficult for the Popular Party leader to fulfill his promise. the commitment not to govern in coalition with the far right if the sum allows them to reach an absolute majority.

The electorate punishes the two-party system parties, while the minority formations of the two ideological blocs are strengthened. To a lesser extent than Vox, which is by far the one that gains the most electoral benefit from the Cerdán case, Sumar also increases its estimated vote to 7.8%. This is eight-tenths more than in June. Podemos also grows two-tenths and stands at 4.4%. Another of the investiture partners on whom the CIS smiles after the Cerdán case is ERC, which grows seven-tenths, to 2.1% (in June it stood at 1.4%). The Republicans thus surpass Se ha Acabado la Fiesta (The Party is Over) (SALF), led by far-right MEP Alvise Pérez, and climb to sixth place.

SALF, for its part, also increases its vote estimate, but less than Vox. Pérez's party, which has never contested a Spanish election (it was the surprise winner in the European elections with three seats), would obtain 1.7%, two-tenths more than in June. As for the rest of the parties in the plurinational majority, Junts and EH Bildu fall, while the PNV and the BNG grow. Carles Puigdemont's party loses one-tenth, to 1%, and the Abertzales three-tenths, to 0.9%. In the case of the Basque nationalists, the increase is two-tenths, to 0.8%, still behind their rivals in the Basque Country, and the Galician party rises one-tenth to 0.7%.

More concerned about corruption

If in June, before the report from the Civil Guard's Central Operational Unit (UCO) incriminating Cerdán was made public, only 4.3% of those surveyed considered corruption to be Spain's number one problem, it is now 13.1%. The CIS (National Commission for Statistics) has therefore detected an increase in concern about this scourge. In fact, the percentage of people who see corruption as one of the three main problems facing the state has increased by more than ten points. This is now considered by 25.3%, compared to 11.7% of those surveyed by the CIS (National Commission for Statistics) a month ago.

In this barometer, however, the category that ranks first as Spain's main problem is "the government and specific political parties or politicians." 14.1% believe it is the biggest problem facing the State, and 17.8% consider it to be among the top three, compared to only 13.7% a month ago (10.2% already considered it the main problem). This response has knocked housing off the top spot. However, 13.9% still respond that it is the biggest problem, and it has the highest percentage if we take into account those who mention this issue in the top three (30%). A month ago, it was the biggest problem for 15.2%, and among the top three for 32.5%.

The assessment of leaders

This upward trend for Vox is evident in the ratings of the leaders of the main Spanish parties, as the number of respondents who say they would prefer Abascal to be the prime minister is growing. From 6.4% in June, it rose to 11.3% in July. The current percentage is just one-tenth below those who say they would like Feijóo to be the prime minister (11.4%, 1.3 points more than a month ago). However, Sánchez remains the preferred choice for 22.5% (down 3.3 points). Regarding the ratings, the socialist leader also lost a few tenths in the ratings given by those surveyed, but remains the highest-rated candidate with a score of 3.99, followed by Díaz (3.97), Feijóo (3.83), and Abascal (3.15).

The CIS does not ask about Cerdán

While the CIS did not specifically ask about the Cerdán case, it did ask a series of questions about the NATO summit at which Sánchez opposed increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP. A majority of 54.9% agreed with the Spanish president's position, more than those who align with Donald Trump's (29.5% support the US president's). A further 57.5% affirmed that Sánchez should not comply with Trump's demand.